06/20/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Thursday, June 20th, 2019 through Monday, June 24th, 2019

Ozone: 8-hour Ozone concentrations will range between Good and Moderate through the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will also range from Good to Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Precipitation across lower Michigan will finally end Thursday afternoon as the storm system tracks east. This will be replaced with weak high pressure for Friday which will bring in dry conditions and warmer temperatures. The dry conditions may be short-lived, however, as an active weather pattern is expected for this weekend into early next week. Warm temperatures will remain in place through the period.

Cool, wet conditions Thursday will allow for Good air quality. More in the way of sunshine is expected Friday and surface temperatures will increase, but northerly winds and cooler upper level temperatures will hamper ozone development. Ozone is expected to range between Good and Moderate, and fine particulate will be mostly Good with a few low Moderates possible in the southeast. Storm chances may come into play early Saturday as a complex is expected to track southeast from Wisconsin early in the day. The exact track of this isn’t certain and parts of the state may remain dry. Upper level temperatures again remain lower, especially over the southeastern portion of the state. At this time a significant increase in ozone is not expected with both ozone and fine particulate levels ranging from upper Good to Moderate.

By Sunday, winds at the surface and upper levels turn more southwesterly and warmer temperatures move in. This is more conducive for ozone, but a warm front will also be tracking up from the south bringing with it clouds and scattered storms. Ozone may reach Moderate in areas with more hours of sunshine but levels higher than Moderate are not expected; more widespread Moderate fine particulate can be expected. Forecast maps will be evaluated again Friday morning and this forecast will be updated if we feel pollution levels will increase higher than what is currently anticipated.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The warm front, followed by an associated cold front, will keep storm chances through Monday. Ozone may reach Moderate in a few locations if the sun breaks out, otherwise levels should be Good. Fine particulate through early next week will range from upper Good to low Moderate.

Next forecast update: Monday, June 24th, 2019
Update by: Stephanie M. Hengesbach, Meteorologist, Air Quality Division, Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy

06/17/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, June 17th, 2019 through Thursday, June 20th, 2019

Ozone: 8-hour Ozone concentrations will be mostly Good with scattered Moderates possible Tuesday.

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will range from upper Good to middle Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Generally quiet conditions start the week with high pressure in place. Clouds and cooler temperatures Monday will keep ozone generally Good; however, weaker winds may allow for Moderate fine particulate in the southeastern portion of the state. More sunshine is expected Tuesday as winds remaining light and upper level temperatures cool. Ozone may increase into the Moderate range and scattered Moderate fine particulate may linger as well. The next weather system approaches Wednesday bringing in clouds and chances for precipitation. The heaviest rainfall looks to occur across the southern portion of the state. A few Moderates for fine particulate may continue; Good ozone is expected. Northerly winds develop Thursday after the Wednesday system passes. Both ozone and fine particulate will be Good.

High pressure settles over the state Friday with temperatures warming at the surface. Plenty of sunshine is anticipated which could allow for increased ozone, but cooler upper level temperatures may hamper ozone development. There is enough risk for increased readings; therefore, we will be evaluating weather conditions Thursday to get a better handle on expected pollution levels for Friday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show more summer-like temperatures for the coming weekend, but it also comes with storm chances. It may be a set-up where ozone will quickly develop in areas with only a few hours on sunshine. Updated information on the extended forecast can also be expected Thursday.

Next forecast update: Thursday, June 20th, 2019
Update by: Stephanie M. Hengesbach, Meteorologist, Air Quality Division, Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy

06/10/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, June 10th, 2019 through Monday, June 17th, 2019

Ozone:  8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mostly Good through the forecast period. 

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good with some Low Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION 

Rain will move out of the area, Monday morning, as a front migrates across the state.  Brisk northwest winds will push dry air into the region during the afternoon and skies should be generally clear by sunset.  Air Quality issues will be small as the incoming air will be clean.

Clear skies should persist through Tuesday as high pressure rapidly pushes through the upper Midwest.  Highs should reach the mid-70’s with comfortable humidity borne on light westerly winds.  Air Quality should remain Good.

The Wednesday/Thursday time frame shows another chance of rain, albeit not as much as we saw during Sunday and early Monday.  I expect shower activity to start Wednesday afternoon and linger into Thursday morning.  Cooler temperatures on Thursday will struggle to reach the low 60’s with Good Air Quality.

Surface high pressure will nudge its way into the lower Great Lakes region during Friday providing a pleasant day with westerly winds and continued Good Air Quality.

More unsettled weather will likely return to the region during the weekend.  The models are not totally certain on the nature of the precipitation potential but overcast skies and mostly southeast winds in advance of another low pressure system should keep ozone levels low and fine particulates in the Good to Low Moderate range. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good going into the next work week. 

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, June 10th, 2019
Next forecast update: Monday, June 17th, 2019

06/07/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Friday, June 7th, 2019 through Monday, June 10th, 2019

Ozone: 8-hour Ozone concentrations will range from Good to Moderate.

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will also be in the Good to Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

High pressure dominating will keep sunny and warm conditions in place Friday and Saturday. This forecast changes Sunday as a low-pressure area tracks north into the state bringing with it chances for precipitation. Precipitation could linger Monday into Tuesday, and cooler conditions are expected to move in.

As for air quality, plenty of sunshine will be in place through Saturday along with warmer surface temperatures. These are conditions conducive for ozone development; however, upper level temperatures remaining lower and easterly surface winds will hamper ozone from significantly increasing. An isolated monitor or two may reach low-end USG, but readings will mostly remain Moderate both Friday and Saturday. Clouds and chances for precipitation on Sunday should allow for generally Good ozone, with Good readings continuing Monday.

Fine particulate has generally been Good, except for some scattered Moderates in the southern part of the state. This trend is expected to continue Friday and Saturday with a mix of Good and low Moderate levels. Any Moderate fine particulate will improve into the Good range Monday after the low/front tracks east of the state and northerly winds develop.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show cooler conditions prevailing into mid-week. This will keep air quality at Good levels.

Next forecast update: Monday, June 10th, 2019
Update by: Stephanie M. Hengesbach, Meteorologist, Air Quality Division, Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy

06/03/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, June 3rd, 2019 through Friday, June 7th, 2019

Ozone: 8-hour Ozone concentrations will be mostly Good with a few low-Moderates.

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will also range from Good to low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

High pressure Monday is producing dry, cool conditions and allowing for Good air quality. By Tuesday, warm air moves in as the high tracks east bringing more of a southerly wind. A shortwave dropping in Tuesday will produce clouds and scattered precipitation which could last through Wednesday. High pressure is then forecast to move back in for the end of the workweek.

As for air quality, both ozone and fine particulate will range Good Monday. Increased clouds and chances for precipitation should keep ozone Good Tuesday; however, areas that break into more sunshine could reach into the Moderate range. Clouds linger Wednesday keeping ozone generally Good. Conditions dry out Thursday and more in the way of sunshine is expected. Temperatures increase both at the surface and upper levels, but winds remain southeasterly. This should keep ozone from increasing higher than low Moderate. Similar weather conditions are expected Friday and ozone should range from Good to Moderate.

Without a good period of stagnation during the week, fine particulate is expected to range between Good and low Moderate.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show a possible upper low moving in for the weekend; however, there is a bit of uncertainty in its development. If the low does not pan out, dry conditions and good amounts of sunshine could be in place. This forecast will be updated Friday to detail expected air quality conditions for the coming weekend.

Next forecast update: Friday, June 7th, 2019
Stephanie M. Hengesbach, Meteorologist, Air Quality Division. Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy

05/28/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Tuesday, May 28th, 2019 through Monday, June 3rd, 2019

Ozone: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mostly Good through the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good with some Low Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Cooler, cloudy weather will persist through much of the work week as a stationary front lingers in the northernIllinois/Indiana area. This combination of fronts and associated low pressure cells will likely cause outbreaks of nasty weather to our south but Michigan should only experience clouds and showers. Air Quality should remain mostly in the Good range.

We finally begin to dry out on Friday as high pressure begins pushing in from the northwest. Calm winds on Friday may allow some creep in Fine Particulates but Ozone does not appear to be an issue, at this time.

During Saturday, southwest air flow should change over to west/northwest winds later in the day as clockwise winds around the center of high pressure define our weekend wind pattern. These winds should be clean and provide Good Air Quality. Sunday and Monday’s winds should be light but predominantly northerly keeping our weather pleasant and our Air Quality Good.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain mostlyGood going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Tuesday, May 28th, 2019

Next forecast update: Monday, June 3rd, 2019

05/24/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Friday, May 24th, 2019 through Tuesday, May 28th, 2019

Ozone: 8-hour Ozone concentrations will be mostly Good through the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to range from middle Good to low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

An active weather pattern continues as we move into the Memorial Day weekend. The weekend won’t be a complete washout, but periods of showers and storms exist through Tuesday. Sunday into Monday afternoon looks to be the driest period.

Clouds and precipitation chances keep ozone Good Friday and Saturday. A frontal boundary settles near the state border Sunday. Clouds and precipitation may linger in the south with mostly dry conditions further north. Winds will have a northerly component keeping ozone mostly Good even in areas that break into some afternoon sunshine. The boundary tracks back north Monday causing clouds to increase and precipitation to move back in during the afternoon. Chances for showers and storms continue Tuesday. Generally Good ozone is expected both Monday and Tuesday.

Increased moisture near the frontal boundary on Sunday may allow for some increased fine particulate into the Moderate range across the southern portion of the state. Otherwise, the active pattern keeps the air well-mixed and fine particulate is expected to be mostly Good.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show precipitation remaining in the forecast through mid-week. Air pollution during this time will be generally Good.

Next forecast update: Tuesday, May 28th, 2019
Update by: Stephanie M. Hengesbach

05/20/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, May 20th, 2019 through Friday, May 24th, 2019

Ozone: 8-hour Ozone concentrations will be mostly Good with a few Moderates possible Thursday and/or Friday.

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to range from middle Good to low Moderate through the week.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Cool, cloudy conditions on Monday turn warmer as the week progresses; however, a more active pattern will also develop. After a mostly dry Tuesday, precipitation comes in the forecast through Wednesday as a low-pressure area tracks north of the region. Past mid-week an upper level ridge builds across the southeast, but a surface boundary lingers further north across our region through the weekend. Disturbances moving across this boundary will keep scattered showers and storms in the forecast as temperatures and humidity levels increase.

Ozone is expected to remain Good through Wednesday, but readings could reach Moderate Thursday and/or Friday if precipitation remains at bay and afternoon sunshine breaks out for a few hours. Fine particulate may also increase into the Moderate range starting Wednesday, especially in the southeast.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show the boundary possibly lingering through the Memorial Day holiday. Since the placement of this boundary is important in determining air quality levels, we will be having another regional forecast call Friday to better evaluate expected conditions through the holiday weekend.

Next forecast update: Friday, May 24th, 2019
Update by: Stephanie M. Hengesbach

05/13/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, May13th, 2019 through Monday, May 20th, 2019

Ozone:  8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mostly Good through the forecast period.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good with some Low Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

The cloudy, cool and wet weather observed on Monday will give way to clear skies on Tuesday as high pressure moves into the region.  Winds through Tuesday will vary north to west and Air Quality should be Good.

During Wednesday, a weak front will drop down through the state.  Winds will be generally southeast until the front passes then turn briefly to the northwest. 

During Thursday, we will see the start of a slow warm up as winds become predominantly southwest in advance of a front over the Plaines states.  Ozone will not be an issue as temperatures will not get warm enough and cloud cover will happen more often than clear skies.  But Fine Particulates could creep into the Low Moderate range. 

Southwest winds will persist, along with the possibility of Low Moderates, until a frontal passage late Sunday night.  Rain chances increase as the front draws closer during the weekend.

Air Quality will return to Good on Monday on the back side of the front and the return of northwest winds.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good going into the next work week. 

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, May 13th, 2019
Next forecast update: Monday, May 20th, 2019

05/06/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, May 6th, 2019 through Monday, May 13th, 2019

Ozone: 8-hour Ozone concentrations will be Good.

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good with only a few periods of possible low Moderates.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Precipitation is in the forecast Monday/early Tuesday as a cold front move through.  This boundary stalls south of the state before moving back north Wednesday bringing precipitation back in the forecast.  Precipitation chances linger Thursday as a low develops along this boundary and tracks northeast across the state.  High pressure builds in Friday drying conditions out for the end of the week.

As for air quality, fine particulate levels early Monday were ranging between upper Good and low Moderate.  Readings will improve as the front passes with mostly Good averages for the day; however, the southeast may remain low Moderate.  Northeast/easterly winds Tuesday into Wednesday will keep fine particulate in the Good range.  Weaker winds for a time Thursday may allow for a few low-Moderate fine particulate readings, otherwise levels will be Good through Friday.

Clouds, precipitation chances, and lower temperatures will keep ozone Good through the workweek.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show high pressure in place most of Saturday but a front passes during the night bringing chances for rain.  High pressure builds back in early next week with cooler temperatures expected.  Low-Moderate fine particulate is possible, mostly in the southeast, on Saturday; otherwise both fine particulate and ozone will be Good.

Next forecast update: Monday, May 13th, 2019
Updated by: Stephanie M. Hengesbach, Meteorologist, Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy

04/29/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, April 29th, 2019 through Monday, May 6th, 2019

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be Good through much of the week with Moderates possible by the weekend.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A wet period is expected between Monday and Thursday with chances for showers and/or storms as three systems pass through. Monday should be mostly rain but chances for storms arrives later Tuesday through Thursday. Cooler temperatures start the period; however, southerly winds by mid-week will bring in seasonable temperatures. A dry out is expected Friday as high pressure moves in.

As for air quality, levels are low early Monday and readings are expected to average Good for the day. Easterly/southeasterly winds into Wednesday will keep air quality mostly Good; however, southerly winds later Wednesday into Thursday could allow for low-Moderates to mix in. Winds turn back northerly as high pressure builds in Friday and air quality is expected to be Good.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show high pressure remaining in control until Monday when precipitation returns ahead of a frontal boundary. Lighter winds turn southwesterly Sunday and temperatures should be warmer, in the 60s. Weather conditions will be more conducive for Moderate air quality early next week with levels ranging from upper Good to middle Moderate.

Next forecast update: Monday, May 6th, 2019
FORECAST UPDATED BY Stephanie M. Hengesbach, Meteorologist, Air Quality Division, Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy

04/22/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, April 22nd, 2019 through Monday, April 29th, 2019

Ozone:  8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mostly Good through the forecast period.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good with some Low Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Monday will give us a taste of the upcoming summer with afternoon temperatures approaching 80 degrees.  These warm temperatures will be courtesy of a tight low pressure system over the Plaines states causing brisk southerly winds.  The winds will provide enough mixing such that Air Quality should remain Good. 

When the associated front passes Thursday morning, shifting winds to the northwest will provide clean air and cooler temperatures.

The best chance of Low Moderates, during the forecast period, will likely be Thursday when another weak front pushes across the state.  Southwest winds with temperatures in the upper 60’s could yield a creep in fine particulates concentrations. 

Temperatures look to be cooler during the weekend with Good Air Quality.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, April 22nd, 2019
Next forecast update: Monday, April 29th, 2019

04/15/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, April 15th, 2019 through Monday, April 22nd, 2019

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to range from Good to low Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Sunny conditions Monday turn unsettled Monday night, lasting through the end of the week. Initially the pattern change happens as a boundary becomes stalled over the region, becoming the focus for showers both Tuesday and Wednesday. On Thursday, a low-pressure area pulls the boundary through and storms are a possibility as temperatures warm ahead of it. For Friday and Saturday, a low-pressure area positions itself over the Great Lakes. This system will keep cooler temperatures and scattered showers, possibly mixed with snow, in the forecast.

As for air quality, northwest winds will keep fine particulate readings in the Good range Monday. With a boundary lingering for a few days, fine particulate may increase at a few locations; however, large increases are not expected with levels ranging from middle Good to low Moderate Tuesday through Thursday. Any increase in fine particulate will improve to Good Friday as northeasterly winds develop. Good fine particulate is expected to continue Saturday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show the low pulling east Saturday as high pressure moves into the area. Quiet conditions will be in place Easter Sunday, lasting Monday. Northerly winds early Sunday should keep fine particulate from increasing above low Moderate. Southwesterly winds later Sunday and Monday could allow for more widespread low Moderates.

Next forecast update: Monday, April 22nd, 2019
Forecast Update by: Stephanie M. Hengesbach

04/08/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, April 8th, 2019 through Monday, April 15th, 2019

PM-2.5:  24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good with some Low Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

After a pleasant weekend, which actually felt a bit like Spring, we will be returning to cooler weather and maybe even a touch of snow during midweek.

The work week begins with west-northwest winds and Good Air Quality.  We will see a brief turn to southwest winds as a small low pressure system passes to our north, Monday night, but see winds shift back to the northwest during Tuesday.  Air Quality should remain mostly Good.

The most interesting feature of this week’s weather begins making itself known late Wednesday as a strong low pressure center comes out of Colorado and presses northeastward.  We will see surface winds shift to the east in advance of its arrival.  This is a deep low and winds will become brisker as it approaches.  These brisk winds will briefly turn to the south, Thursday night, as the center of the low enters the Great Lakes region.  With the brisk winds, I don’t expect issue with Air Quality.

The low pressure center will pass Friday night, and return the region back to a clean, northwest air flow for Friday and early Saturday.  I anticipate light winds during most of the weekend so some areas may see a creep into the Low Moderate range.

Temperatures are projected to be back into the 60’s by early next week and that could spawn some Low Moderate readings.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good to Low Moderate going into the next work week. 

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, April 8th, 2019
Next forecast update: Monday, April 15th, 2019

03/25/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, March 25th, 2019 through Monday, April 1st, 2019

PM-2.5:  24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will be generally Good to Low Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

We are looking at a quiet work week on the weather front with generally Good Air Quality.  The first half of the work week will feature high pressure as it tracks southeastward.  Surface winds through Tuesday should be mostly northeast and clean under clear skies.

By Wednesday morning, light winds could allow for the beginning of some localized creep of fine particulates.  By late Wednesday, winds on the back side of the departing high pressure will become southwesterly.  With the advection of warmer continental air, it is a good chance that we will start to experience Low Moderates by Thursday morning.

The models indicate a frontal boundary dropping south through Michigan during the day, Thursday.  The lack of available moisture may cause this front to be mostly dry but some showers could occur.  Winds behind this front will be clean and clear out any Moderate conditions.

A better chance of rain comes Friday night as a stronger system approaches the region.  A chance of snow showers exists during Saturday as temperatures drop.  Winds should be generally from a northern direction with Good Air Quality.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, March 25th, 2019

Next forecast update: Monday, April 1st, 2019

03/18/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, March 18th, 2019 through Monday, March 25th, 2019

PM-2.5:  24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will be generally Good to Low Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

The forecast period should be fairly quiet starting with a period of warming up and drying out.  A surface ridge of high pressure will drift eastward during the first portion of the week putting the region under southwesterly winds.  While the warmer temperatures, sunshine, and a chance to dry out will be welcomed, the chance for fine particulates to creep into the Low Moderate range will be good.

A small clipper system will sweep through the region, late Wednesday, which should clean out any Moderates that may have accumulated.  Clean conditions and Good Air Quality should persist until later in the weekend when warmer southwest winds return.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, March 18th, 2019

Next forecast update: Monday, March 25th, 2019

03/11/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, March 11th, 2019 through Monday, March 18th, 2019

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to range from Good to middle Moderate through Thursday; mostly Good readings are expected the rest of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Quite conditions start the week with high pressure positioned west of the state. Northwesterly winds should keep fine particulate in the Good range Monday. On Tuesday, the high slides overhead, then east, and southwesterly winds develop. Sunshine, and lighter winds turning southwesterly will cause an increase in fine particulate; readings will range from upper Good to low Moderate.

Southwest winds pick up Wednesday ahead of an approaching weather system and temperatures climb into the 40s. Precipitation could start as snow or freezing rain; however, as temperatures increase precipitation becomes all rain. Warmer temperatures over the snowpack will cause low-level moisture and areas of fog, and these conditions are favorable for Moderate fine particulate. The increase in temperatures continues Thursday with highs expected to range from the 40s north to the 60s south. Precipitation remains in the forecast thanks to an approaching cold front, and a few storms are possible as well. Moderate fine particulate will remain in place.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show cooler air moving in Friday changing rain showers to snow showers. Cooler temperatures remain through the weekend with an upper level trough in place. A few periods of light winds may allow hourly fine particulate to reach Moderate for a few hours; however, daily averages of fine particulate are expected to be Good to low Moderate through the weekend into early next week.

Next forecast update: Monday, March 18th, 2019

03/04/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, March 4th, 2019 through Monday, March 11th, 2019

PM-2.5:  24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will be generally Good to Low Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

The first half of the work week will stay Good for Air Quality as a low pressure system in Canada sends a series of short-wave low pressure systems through the region.  Each of those short-waves will be followed by reinforcing Arctic air.  The last of these short-waves should be through Wednesday night.

High pressure moves into the region for the latter half of the work week. Warmer temperatures and calmer winds will likely cause Moderate conditions to creep in during Thursday and lasting into the weekend.  Stronger southerly winds will occur during Saturday as a deep low pressure system approaches the region.  That system should pass through Sunday afternoon followed by northwest winds and another shot of cold air.  That will put us back into Good Air Quality. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, March 4th, 2019

Next forecast update: Monday, March 11th, 2019

2/25/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, February 25th, 2019 through Monday, March 4th, 2019

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to range from Good to low Moderate through the week; Good readings are expected early next week.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Northwest winds behind the strong weekend storm will keep fine particulate in the Good range Monday. A weak disturbance moving through brings snow into the forecast later Tuesday, lasting into Wednesday. Winds will be light during this period; therefore, fine particulate will range from Good to low Moderate. High pressure moves in for a short time Thursday with lighter winds expected; Good to low Moderate fine particulate will continue.

Winds turn southeasterly/easterly Friday ahead of a weekend storm system. This system tracks across the Great Lakes bringing snow into the forecast later Friday through Saturday. Fine particulate may reach low Moderate again Friday; however, any Moderate fine particulate will improve to the Good range Saturday as arctic air moves in on a strong northwest wind.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show lake effect snows lingering into Sunday as northwest winds continue. High pressure also moves in and will bring quiet, but cold, conditions on Monday. Good fine particulate can be expected early next week.

Next forecast update: Monday, March 4th, 2019
Forecast Update by: Stephanie M. Hengesbach