4/27/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, April 27th, 2020 through Monday, May 4th, 2020

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will range from middle Good to low Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A weak disturbance drops in from the northwest Monday with increasing clouds and chances for precipitation moving from northwest to southeast. Precipitation then remains in the forecast as a low-pressure area develops and slowly tracks across the Great Lakes region through Thursday. Seasonable temperatures are expected with a predominant southerly component to the wind. This will change Thursday, however, as cool northerly winds develop behind the departing system. High pressure Friday brings precipitation to the end as temperatures moderate closer to normal.

As for air quality this week, light and/or southerly winds could allow for periods of low Moderate fine particulate, especially in southern portions of the state. Fine particulate levels improve later Thursday with northerly winds moving in; Good fine particulate is expected for Friday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show a weak front passing late Saturday into Sunday. The timing or strength of this system isn’t clear this far out; however, temperatures should remain seasonable. Without models showing an extended period of stagnation, fine particulate through early next week should not reach higher than low Moderate.

FORECAST UPDATED BY STEPHANIE M. HENGESBACH: MONDAY, April 27th, 2020.NEXT FORECAST UPDATE: MONDAY, May 4th, 2020

4/20/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, April 20th, 2020 through Monday, April 27th, 2020

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be a mixture of Good and Low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Monday will likely be the nicest day of the week before active weather moves through and drops temperatures to below-average levels.  Monday’s sun and warmer temperatures will end as a cold front drops down and passes through Monday night.  The colder air behind the front will provide Good Air Quality for the region.

Very cold air, Tuesday night, will give way to slightly warmer air during Wednesday and Thursday as a warm front migrates northward and stalls over the Michigan/Indiana border.  The air north of the front will still be cold enough to support snow showers and the placement of that stalled warm front will likely lead to some Low Moderates along the lake shore and Southeast Michigan areas.

By the weekend, that front should drop southward as a cold front and return the area back to solid Good levels which should persist through Sunday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, April 20th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, April 27th, 2020

4/13/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, April 13th, 2020 through Monday, April 20th, 2020

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations should be mostly Good through Thursday with Moderates possible later in the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A strong storm system moving through the Great Lakes region is producing strong winds statewide and snow accumulations across parts of the Upper Peninsula. Winds will be the most influential part of the storm further south with temperatures dropping during the day. Strong northwesterly winds will keep fine particulate in the Good range.

Looking into the week, conditions should be generally dry and only small chance for precipitation exists Tuesday and Wednesday. Cool air will be in place with temperatures averaging below normal during the work week. A northerly component to the wind both at the surface and upper levels should keep fine particulate Good through Thursday. Lighter winds are anticipated Friday as a storm system passes south through the Ohio Valley. Fine particulate may reach low-end Moderate, mainly across the southern portion of the state.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show temperatures moderating for the weekend. High pressure settles in Saturday but a storm system passing across the northern Great Lakes brings precipitation in the forecast early next week. Fine particulate will range from middle Good to low Moderate during this period.

Forecast updated by Stephanie M. Hengesbach: Monday, April 13th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, April 20th, 2020

4/6/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, April 6th, 2020 through Monday, April 13th, 2020

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be a mixture of Good and Low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

We will enjoy a couple more days of warmer weather before temperatures cool back down for the second half of the week.

Monday will see some sun before an approaching warm front causes clouds to develop from overriding warm air over cooler air.  As the warm front approaches and passes during Tuesday, we can expect warm temperatures around 60 along with some shower activity.  The warmer, moist air will also increase the likelihood of Low Moderate fine particulates in the southern half of the state. 

The cold front associated with the same low pressure system will pass Tuesday night providing more shower activity.  I expect clearing behind the front and a mostly pleasant day during Wednesday with some localized Low Moderate conditions but mostly Good.

The biggest change occurs Wednesday night with the passage of a stronger cold front.  Cooler and cleaning air will filter in on the back side.  This will drop our temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal and will provide Good Air Quality.  This cooler, cleaner air should persist into the weekend.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, April 6th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, April 13th, 2020

3/30/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, March 30th, 2020 through Monday, April 6th, 2020

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will range between Good and low Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Low pressure will pull away from the region Monday ending precipitation chances. Northerly winds at the surface and upper levels through mid-week should keep fine particulate generally Good. While fair conditions are expected with weak high pressure dominating, moderating temperatures and lighter winds may allow for a bit more stagnation and a few low-end Moderate readings Thursday or Friday. Southern locations have the best chance at experiencing Moderate fine particulate.

Winds pick up from the south Saturday ahead of a cold front expected to pass through later in the day. Any Moderate fine particulate will improve back to Good late Saturday as winds turn back to the northwest.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show high pressure building back in for early next week. Upper Good to low Moderate fine particulate is expected.

Forecast updated by Stephanie Hengesbach: Monday March 30th, 2020.
Next forecast update: Monday, April 6th, 2020

3/23/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, March 23rd, 2020 through Monday, March 30th, 2020

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will a mixture of Good and Low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

High pressure will drift across the region during Monday following an early Spring snowfall Sunday night.  That high pressure will drift eastward through Tuesday and set up east winds across the state.  Normally, that would set up a forecast for Low Moderates east of the Southeast Michigan but the dynamics are certainly changed. 

A center of low pressure will pass across Kentucky early Wednesday reinforcing easterly winds.  A ridge of surface high pressure will slide across the Midwest during Wednesday.  This will briefly switch the winds to the northwest before the next approaching front yields southwest winds and warming temperatures by early Thursday.  The warm front associated with that system will drop south during Friday providing northeast and eastly winds through midday Sunday.  The cold front portion of that system passes later Sunday and the region will come under northwest winds.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, March 23rd, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, March 30th, 2020

3/16/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Monday March 16th, 2020 through Monday, March 23rd, 2020

Lighter winds Monday may allow for a few Moderate fine particulate readings; however, a boundary moving through early Tuesday should bring levels back to Good. By Wednesday, a storm system is approaching from the southwest. Increased moisture, warmer temperatures and a southerly wind cause precipitation chances, but it will also allow for scattered Moderate fine particulate that may linger into Thursday. After a stronger cold front passes Friday, fine particulate is expected to be Good.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show high pressure positioned north of the region through early next week. Dry conditions and cooler temperatures will keep fine particulate in the Good range.

Forecast updated by Stephanie M. Hengesbach: Monday, March 16th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, March 23rd, 2020

3/9/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, March 9th, 2020 through Monday, March 16th, 2020

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will a mixture of Good and Low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

A low pressure system will pass through Michigan, Monday night, and provide a bit of rain followed by cleaner northwest winds during Tuesday.

Winds will taper off during Wednesday and swing around to the southeast providing an opportunity for fine particulate numbers to start creeping back into the Low Moderate range especially along the lake shore and southeast Michigan.  Those concentrations will likely amplify a bit during Thursday as those winds become more moist and warmer under a solid southwest flow.  I expect most of the state will experience Low/Mid-Moderate concentrations during Thursday.

Another system is expected to pass through late Thursday which should return our Air Quality back into the Good range.  I expect those Good conditions to persist through the weekend, even as winds turn to the northeast during Sunday and Monday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, March 9th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, March 16th, 2020

3/2/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, March 2nd, 2020 through Monday, March 9th, 2020

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will range between Good and low Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

On and off weather systems will pass generally north of the state this week. Precipitation is in the forecast; however, the best chance arrives with the Thursday system. After each tracks east, winds turn northwesterly for a time helping to keep fine particulate from increasing significantly. There will be periods of transition between systems with lighter winds; for instance, weak winds Wednesday may allow for a mix of Good and Moderate fine particulate. Another time frame for possible Moderates will be Saturday as high pressure settles overhead briefly.

For the week, we are expecting a mix of Good to low Moderate fine particulate.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show a stronger storms system approaching by Monday of next week. For the weekend, stronger southwesterly winds develop late Saturday into Sunday. The stronger flow should keep fine particulate from increasing; however, warmer winds over some snow in the northern portion of the state may cause some Moderate readings.

Forecast Update By: Stephanie M. Hengesbach: Monday, March 2nd, 2020
Next Forecast Update: Monday, March 9th, 2020

2/24/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, February 24th, 2020 through Monday, March 2nd, 2020

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will mostly Good with some Low Moderates during late in the weekend.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

A combination of low pressure systems present themselves across the country on Monday.  The most significant low pressure center is located over Oklahoma, Monday morning, and will affect our weather through mid-week.  The track of that system is not completely understood, yet, but it will track up through the Ohio Valley.  Michigan will see some significant snow during the Tuesday/Wednesday time frame and the ultimate track of this system will decide the amounts. 

During this time, winds will be northeasterly, clean and will lead to Good Air Quality.  By Thursday, winds will shift to the northwest with continued Good Air Quality. 

Northwest winds will persist until Sunday when a passing ridge axis puts the region back under a southwest wind regime.  Brisk wind speeds show be enough to keep Air Quality in the Good category but could lead to Low Moderates in more urban areas.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to Low Moderate going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, February 24th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, March 2nd, 2020

2/18/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Tuesday, February 18th, 2020 through Monday, February 24th, 2020

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will mostly Good through the work week with the chance of Low Moderates during the weekend.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Low Moderates in the Southeast Michigan area should be cleaned, during Tuesday, on the heels of a cold front passing through the state.  A secondary cold front will pass during the Tuesday night/Wednesday morning time frame, reinforcing that clean-out.

Wednesday and Thursday Air Quality should be Good with persisting cold, clean, northwest winds as a large high pressure system drifts eastward.

By Friday, the center of high pressure will have drifted far enough eastward to place the forecast region back under southwest winds.  With those winds, we will see increasing temperatures and humidity along with creeping fine particulates.  During Saturday, most of the state will likely experience some Low Moderate concentrations, which should continue into Sunday.

Low pressure, to our south, will drift eastward on Monday putting the state under a northeast wind pattern.  This wind shift should clean out most of the lingering particulates.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to Low Moderate going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Tuesday, February 18th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, February 24th, 2020

2/14/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Friday, February 14th, 2020 through Tuesday, February 18th, 2020

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will range between Good and middle Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

High pressure sliding overhead Friday will end Lake Effect snows over the western portion of the state. Gusty southwest winds develop Saturday as the high pushes east and a frontal boundary approaches from the northwest. This front will bring snow in the forecast from northwest to southeast Saturday; significant accumulations are not expected. High pressure builds back in to start the new week; however, a system approaching from the west/southwest on Presidents Day will bring warmer temperatures and chances for both rain and snow; rain should be confined to southern areas.

As for air quality, a weaker northerly wind should keep fine particulate mostly Good Friday. Strong southwest winds Saturday will allow Good fine particulate to continue. Weak high pressure Sunday produces lighter winds, especially in the southeast; this could cause some Moderate fine particulate. With southerly winds and increased moisture on Monday, more widespread Moderate fine particulate is expected.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show the Presidents Day system pulling east by Tuesday with a good northwesterly wind developing. Any buildup of fine particulate should improve to Good Tuesday, and Good readings are expected to continue through mid-week.

FORECAST UPDATE BY STEPHANIE HENGESBACH: FRIDAY, FEBRUARY 14TH, 2020
NEXT FORCAST UPDATE: TUESDAY FEBRUARY 18TH, 2020

2/10/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, February 10th, 2020 through Friday, February 14th, 2020

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will range between Good and middle Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Through midweek, expect generally quiet weather conditions. The next storm system brings snow back in the forecast later Wednesday into Thursday. Snows can be attributed to a storm system passing south of the state as a cold front drops in from the northwest. The front, which passes through on Thursday, originates from the arctic; therefore, expect cold air to usher in Friday. The arctic air will be short-lived as high pressure quickly builds in Saturday.

As for air quality, no long periods of stagnation develop this week; however, there are some periods of weaker winds. Fine particulate is expected to range from upper Good to low Moderate through Wednesday. With the cold, northerly wind developing Thursday into Friday, fine particulate will be Good as we end the workweek.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show high pressure moving in Saturday with possibly another storm system later Sunday into Monday. Fine particulate late in the forecast period should not reach higher than low to middle Moderate; however, with so much uncertainty with the weather forecast, we will be updating this forecast Friday to detail expected air quality levels through the Presidents Day Holiday.

Forecast update by Stephanie Hengesbach: Monday, February 10th, 2020
Next forecast update: Friday, February 14th, 2020

2/3/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, February 3rd, 2020 through Monday, February 10th, 2020

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will mostly Good through the work week with the chance of Low Moderates during the weekend.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

The forecast week is expected to be mostly quiet and uneventful with temperatures slightly above normal.  The best chances for precipitation will be Monday night along with Wednesday night through Friday, although the levels of precipitation should be relatively light.

A weak low-pressure system, to our south will move east-northeast towards northern Ohio during Monday.  Winds will back from southwest to the northeast during the day, cleaning the atmosphere.  Winds favorable for clean Air Quality should persist through the work week providing Good conditions.  Long range forecasts have winds returning to the southwest, during the weekend, which could yield some Low Moderates. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to Low Moderate going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, February 3rd, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, February 10th, 2020

01/27/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, January 27th, 2020 through Monday, February 3rd, 2020

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will mostly Good with scattered Low Moderates at the end of the week.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

The forecast week is expected to be mostly quiet and uneventful.  There is very little chance for precipitation other than a few snow/rain showers Monday night and Thursday night.

Low clouds will hang on into Thursday when we should see some breaks in the clouds.

Winds patterns, during the week, will be Air Quality friendly with directions from the west, northwest, and east.  The best chance for any Low Moderates will come later in the work week when winds go mostly calm on Friday then south to southwest during the weekend.

Next week, there looks to be a warmup during the Monday/Tuesday time frame before colder air returns midweek that could yield Low Moderate conditions.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to Low Moderate going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, January 27th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, February 3rd, 2020

01/21/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Tuesday, January 21st, 2020 through Monday, January 27th, 2020

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will range between Good and middle Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Quiet conditions will persist through mid-week before a stacked low-pressure area brings precipitation in the forecast starting early Thursday. Any precipitation should be light; however, chances linger until early Saturday as the system slowly tracks west to east just south of the state. Warmer than normal temperatures can be expected through much of the period. West winds Monday, back to the southwest/south Wednesday and Thursday, and then to the southeast/east Friday and Saturday as the low pulls away from the region.

As for air quality, no long periods of stagnation develop this week; however, neither will there be any strong wind shift to the north. Also, snow cover exists across much of the state which combined with warmer temperatures may allow for higher fine particulate concentrations. We expect fine particulate to range from upper Good to middle Moderate through this week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show high pressure moving in Saturday into Sunday, but another system is poised to drop in from the northwest Monday. Winds may be weaker ahead of and with the Monday disturbance; this will likely continue the trend of Good to middle Moderate fine particulate.

Next forecast update: Monday, January 27th, 2020
Stephanie M. Hengesbach, Meteorologist, Air Quality Division

01/13/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, January 13th, 2020 through Tuesday, January 21st, 2020

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be a mixture of Good to Low Moderate until mid-week, then mostly Good through the remainder of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Following a messy weekend with rain, sleet, snow and ice, a weak upper level disturbance will provide a bit more freezing precipitation through Monday morning. 

High pressure will work into the region Monday afternoon to bring dryer weather and somewhat warmer temperatures.  Southerly winds and warmer temperatures will provide a good opportunity to see a mix of Good to Low Moderate fine particulate readings, especially in the more urban areas. 

The next low pressure system is expected late Wednesday which could provide more mixed precipitation.  A wind shift will also occur providing cleaner air which would push our Air Quality back into the Good category. 

A bigger low pressure system is projected to impact the region starting late Friday and into Saturday.  This looks to have the potential to be significant precipitation event along albeit with continued Good Air Quality. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into the next work week

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, January 13th, 2020
Next forecast update: Tuesday, January 21st, 2020

01/06/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, January 6th, 2020 through Monday, January 13th, 2020

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good until early next week when values could range between Good and low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Quiet weather Monday becomes more active as on and off systems move through the region. The first cold front passes Tuesday bringing in chances for snow; lake effect remains possible through Wednesday. High pressure moves in late Wednesday into early Thursday, but the next system brings precipitation back in the forecast Thursday afternoon/evening. Warmer southerly winds also develop Thursday ahead of the cold front. Precipitation should remain rain in central and southern areas with snow further north. The boundary positions itself south of the state Friday with a low-pressure area developing and riding northeast along the boundary Saturday. The system remains centered to our south/southeast; however, the precipitation extends north of the system into much of lower Michigan Saturday into early Sunday. As temperatures cool Saturday, any liquid precipitation should transition to snow.

As for air quality, no periods of stagnation develop this week and wind speeds are expected to keep the atmosphere well mixed. Generally Good air quality is anticipated, aside from a few early morning hourly readings of low Moderate, mostly in the southeast.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show high pressure moving in next Sunday, but the next system moves in from the west Monday. Winds may be weaker with the expected weather pattern which will likely allow for a mix of Good to low-Moderate fine particulate.

Next forecast update: Monday, January 13th, 2020
Updated by: Stephanie M. Hengesbach, Meteorologist

12/30/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, December 30th, 2019 through Monday, January 6th, 2020

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good until the end of the work week, then a mixture of Good and Low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

The last forecast of 2019 starts with extremely wet weather but Good Air Quality.  This follows a Christmas week where Moderates persisted through most of the state.

Colder air will begin slipping in behind the rain, Monday afternoon, to give us messy, snowy conditions Monday night and Tuesday.  We will not have the same amount of winter problems experienced out west, but it will be messy enough.  On the positive side, we should have Good Air Quality.

The next warm-up is expected in the Thursday/Friday time slot.  Southerly winds will push temperatures back up into the 40’s but will also provide the potential for Low Moderate conditions.

The next front is expected Friday night, which will drop temperatures and clean out the atmosphere back into the Good range.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, December 30th, 2019
Next forecast update: Monday, January 6th, 2020

12/23/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, December 23rd, 2019 through Monday, December 30th, 2019

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Low Moderate until the weekend, then Good conditions return.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Mild weather will continue through the Christmas week despite the passage of a weak cold front Monday afternoon.  The warmer, moist air over the colder ground has created a nice stable atmosphere for fine particulates to form and stay close to the ground.

High pressure will move over the region, during Tuesday, with southerly winds returning late in the day.  The continued warmer weather and moist conditions will keep the majority of the state in the Low Moderate range.

The current weather models are showing a front moving through the region around the Friday time frame, although confidence is somewhat shaky on the timing.  When the front does pass, northwest winds should clean the atmosphere and return conditions to the Good range.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, December 23rd, 2019
Next forecast update: Monday, December 30th, 2019