6/22/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, June 22nd, 2020 through Friday, June 26th, 2020

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mostly Low Moderate to Moderate on Monday, then generally Good to Low Moderate through the remainder of the work week.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good through the week.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Last week, we experienced more USG readings across the state than all of 2019, combined.  Any help that the lockdowns may have had, earlier in the ozone season, appear to have disappeared. 

Fortunately, this week should be a reprieve from the poor Air Quality of last week.  Although we remain in the same air mass during Monday, clouds and shower potential should keep monitor values mostly in check.  I expect Moderates will still rule the day while we remain in this same stagnant air mass.  The reprieve will finally come Tuesday morning with a passage of a cold front which will usher in new cooler and cleaner air mass.

This cooler and cleaner air mass will provide daily highs in the 70’s for most of the remainder of the work week and vastly improved Air Quality over last week.  However, since we are in that time of the year with the longest daylight hours and strongest solar radiation, this forecast will be updated on Friday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should remain Good to Low Moderate into the weekend.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, June 22nd, 2020
Next forecast update: Friday, June 26th, 2020

6/20/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Saturday, June 20th, 2020 through Monday, June 22nd, 2020

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mostly Moderate and USG Saturday with levels ranging between Good to Moderate Sunday and Monday

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will range from upper Good to low Moderate.

AN ACTION DAY ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING MICHIGAN COUNTIES...

IN WEST MICHIGAN:

ALLEGAN... BENZIE… BERRIEN… CASS… GRAND TRAVERSE... KALAMAZOO… KENT... LEELANAU… MANISTEE… MUSKEGON… OCEANA… OTTAWA… MASON… ST. JOSEPH… AND VAN BUREN

IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN:

GENESEE… LAPEER… LIVINGSTON… MACOMB… MONROE… OAKLAND… ST. CLAIR… WASHTENAW… AND WAYNE

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Another warm day with increased ozone was seen Friday and one more day of similar conditions is expected Saturday. Ozone will range from Moderate to USG as plenty of sunshine remains, along with increased surface and upper level temperatures. Because of this, we have an Air Quality Action Day Advisory in place for Saturday for the counties listed above. By Sunday, clouds associated with an approaching boundary, along with chances for scattered storms, will help keep ozone from increasing like we have experienced this week. Ozone on Sunday is not expected to reach higher than Moderate. While there is a very small chance for a monitor or two may reach low-end USG, the threat is not high enough to warrant an action day on Sunday.

Much of the same is expected Monday, warmer temperatures linger and a boundary over the region will trigger scattered storms. There again is a threat for isolated USG levels, but I feel clouds will keep readings in the Moderate range. I will evaluate maps Sunday morning and if my thoughts on Mondays forecast changes, I will send an update.

Fine particulate has been running mostly Moderate and levels will remain generally Moderate through Monday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Models show a stronger front passing the state Tuesday which will bring northwesterly winds, cooler temperatures, and cleaner air in its wake. Air Quality by Tuesday/Wednesday should be back to the Good range.

Forecast Updated by Stephanie M. Hengesbach June 20th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, June 22nd, 2020

6/19/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Friday, June 19th, 2020 through Saturday, June 20th, 2020

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mostly Moderate and USG Friday and Saturday; Air Quality Air Advisories are in place for both days.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Moderate through the weekend.

AN ACTION DAY ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR FRIDAY AND SATURDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING MICHIGAN COUNTIES...

IN WEST MICHIGAN:

ALLEGAN... BENZIE… BERRIEN… CASS… GRAND TRAVERSE... KALAMAZOO… KENT... LEELANAU… MANISTEE… MUSKEGON… OCEANA… OTTAWA… MASON… ST. JOSEPH… AND VAN BUREN

IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN:

GENESEE… LAPEER… LIVINGSTON… MACOMB… MONROE… OAKLAND… ST. CLAIR… WASHTENAW… AND WAYNE

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Moderates and USG levels were again seen Thursday and higher readings are expected to continue into the weekend. Michigan remains under the same air mass this weekend and both temperatures and humidity will increase. Considering weather conditions remain conducive for ozone development as we go into the weekend, we are extending the Air Quality Action Day Advisory currently in place to also cover Saturday.

By Saturday, a frontal boundary will be approaching from the west. Southwesterly winds aid to increase temperature and humidity. One factor against increasing ozone may be a bit more clouds over the area. USG ozone concentrations may not be as widespread Saturday, however, there is still enough threat for USG to keep the Action Day Advisory in place.

Models seem to be slowing precipitation changes for later Saturday into Sunday and the boundary coming through will do little to give us a clean out after it passes. With the uncertainty in the current models, we will be evaluating forecast maps tomorrow morning to determine with better certainty that pollution levels will improve Sunday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should remain Moderate to USG going into the weekend.

Forecast updated by Stephanie M. Hengesbach June 19th, 2020
Next forecast update: Saturday, June 20th, 2020

6/18/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Thursday, June 18th, 2020 through Friday, June 19th, 2020

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mostly Moderate and USG during Thursday and Friday.  Both days have Air Quality Air Advisories.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good to Low Moderates through the week.

AN ACTION DAY ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR FRIDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING MICHIGAN COUNTIES...

ALLEGAN...  BENZIE…  BERRIEN…  CASS…  GRAND TRAVERSE...  KALAMAZOO…  KENT...  LEELANAU… MANISTEE…  MUSKEGON...  OCEANA… OTTAWA…    MASON…  St. JOSEPH…  AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES IN WEST MICHIGAN; AND

GENESEE…  LAPEER…  LIVINGSTON…  MACOMB…  MONROE…  OAKLAND… ST. CLAIR…  WASHTENAW…  AND WAYNE COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Moderates and USG levels dominated the Air Quality map during Wednesday.   I was a bit surprised as to how quickly some of the monitors jumped into the low USG level after starting the day with relatively low concentrations.   That reinforces the decision to issue air advisories for Thursday.  As conditions can only get worse, we will be continuing advisories into Friday and expanding the list of counties.

We remain under the same air mass with increasing temperatures and humidity.  Air pollutants are accumulating because they have nowhere to go and the high pressure dome are keeping them suppressed at the surface.

We will not be out of the woods after Friday as we will be in the same air mass through the weekend.  However, there may be some clouds and showers during the weekend in advance of a frontal passage Monday or Tuesday.  If that occurs, it would help keep concentrations down but it may not be widespread enough to really make a difference.  The Friday forecast will shed more light on that.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should remain Moderate to USG going into the weekend.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Thursday, June 18th, 2020
Next forecast update: Friday, June 19th, 2020

6/17/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Wednesday, June 17th, 2020 through Thursday, June 18th, 2020

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mostly Moderate on Wednesday transitioning to Moderate and USG on Thursday.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good to Low Moderates through the week.

AN ACTION DAY ADVISORY IS ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING MICHIGAN COUNTIES for THURSDAY...

IN WEST MICHIGAN:

ALLEGAN, BERRIEN, CASS, KENT, MUSKEGON, OCEANA, OTTAWA, MASON, AND VAN BUREN COUNTIES.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Tuesday was a mixture of Good and Moderate throughout the state.  This pattern will continue through Wednesday with a possibility of isolated USG’s as air pollutants continue to accumulate under the same air mass.

Each day, this week, has gotten progressively worse as temperatures and humidity slowly increase and air pollutants accumulate.  As such, I am issuing an Air Quality Advisory in both Southeast and West Michigan for Thursday.  There is a good chance that this will carry over into Friday, but we will make that call on Thursday after reviewing the latest computer model runs.

There is a chance for scattered precipitation on Saturday, but we will not see a change in air mass until early next week. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should remain mostly Moderate to USG to the end of the work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Wednesday, June 17th, 2020
Next forecast update: Thursday, June 18th, 2020

6/16/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Tuesday, June 16th, 2020 through Wednesday, June 17th, 2020

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mixture of Good and increasing Moderates through Wednesday with decreasing Air Quality by the end of the week.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good to Low Moderates through the week.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Monday was a sunny, dry day with Air Quality concentrations in the Good category throughout the state.  Tuesday will be continuation under the same dome of high pressure with slowly warming temperatures and dew points.  As such, I think Tuesday will remain mostly Good and some Moderates expected in Southeast Michigan and the western lake shore.

Wednesday will more of a ramp-up day as temperatures and humidity continue to increase under the same air mass.  Several of the models are holding down Wednesday temperatures to around the 80 degree with upper air temperature also remaining on the cooler side.  This scenario would keep Air Quality a mixture of Good and Moderates.  Other models have it warming up several degrees more and that could yield worsening Air Quality if that pans out.  Right now, I am on the side of the fence that gives us a mixture of Good and Moderates.

Thursday and Friday will likely be more interesting as we remain under the same air mass, pollutants accumulate, and temperatures/humidity increase.  The model results for those days are also differing on surface and upper air temperature and will require close monitoring.  Therefore, I intend to update this forecast Wednesday morning once the latest model runs are out.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should remain mostly Good with increasing Moderates by midweek, and declining Air Quality by the end of the work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Tuesday, June 16th, 2020
Next forecast update: Wednesday, June 17th, 2020

6/15/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, June 15th, 2020 through Tuesday, June 16th, 2020

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mostly Good through Tuesday with decreasing Air Quality through the end of the week.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good to Low Moderates through the week.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Dry weather and mostly clear skies are expected through the end of the work week.  Monday morning starts off cool with afternoon highs nearing 80 degrees under light easterly winds and dew points in the upper 40’s.  Upper air temperatures remain cool which should help maintain Good Air Quality through Monday.  This pattern should persist through Tuesday with slightly higher temperatures and dew points.  Air Quality should generally stay in the Good category but some areas in southeast Michigan may reach Low Moderate during Tuesday.

The real warmup begins on Wednesday when surface temperatures are expected to reach the mid-80’s.  Upper air temperatures are still a bit on the cool side, which should help subdue ozone numbers, but the long daylight hours and strong sun may start pushing numbers towards the USG mark, in certain areas.

The hottest days will likely occur on Thursday and Friday when afternoon temperatures in the upper 80’s and the dew points near 60 are expected.  Upper air temperatures are still not optimal for ozone development, but the long days and strong sun may dominate ozone development near the surface. 

Having already seen a couple of days with decent ozone development in the past two weeks, I think it will be smart to keep a daily watch on developing situations.  As such, this forecast will be updated, tomorrow, and likely each day this week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should remain mostly Good early in the week, with Moderates by midweek, and declining Air Quality by the end of the work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, June 15th, 2020
Next forecast update: Tuesday, June 16th, 2020

6/12/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Friday, June 12th, 2020 through Monday, June 15th, 2020

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will generally be Good with some Moderates possible Monday.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will range from Good to low Moderate by Monday.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Scattered showers are a possibility Friday as a weak boundary sinks through the state; however, most locations remain dry. For the rest of the week/weekend, cool high pressure will be in place with plenty of sunshine but expect below normal temperatures.

As for air quality, cool surface and upper level temperatures coupled with a northerly, then easterly, component to the wind should keep both ozone and fine particulate generally Good through Sunday.

By Monday, high pressure slides east, and winds change to more of a southeasterly direction. Temperatures rebound to normal levels, but I feel cooler upper levels temperatures will hamper a significant increase in ozone, especially coming off a low background from the weekend. Ozone and fine particulate should both be in the upper Good to low Moderate range Monday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show increasing temperatures into mid-week with southwesterly winds developing by Tuesday. Pollution levels past Monday likely increase into the Moderate range, but this will be detailed in the Monday forecast update.

Forecast update by Meteorologist Stephanie M. Hengesbach June 12th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, June 15th, 2020

6/8/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, June 8th, 2020 through Friday, June 12th, 2020

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mostly Moderate with isolated USG during Monday and Tuesday, then Good to Low Moderate the remainder of the forecast period.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will also be mostly Good to Low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Monday and Tuesday will be the most interesting days of this forecast period.  The week starts with strong upper ridging which will promote very warm to hot conditions today and Tuesday with plenty of sunshine. 

Long days with strong sun always get our attention in terms of Air Quality.  Fortunately, the position of approaching short-wave systems will align winds to the southeast.  That will spare the Lake Michigan counties since they will not pick up pollutants that might be out over Lake Michigan.  Which is good because those counties did see some USG levels last Tuesday.

The only real area of concern will be northwest of the Detroit area.  We could see some isolated USG readings around the Flint area but I do not expect it to be widespread.  As such, I do not think any advisors are warranted.

The first of two short-waves will pass late Tuesday.  Some pop-up convection could occur during the afternoon.  The second short-wave will pass late Wednesday afternoon will more opportunity for convective activity.  After the passage of the second-wave, winds will shift westerly and drop daily high temperatures to around 70.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should remain mostly Good going into the weekend.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, June 8th, 2020
Next forecast update: Friday, June 12th, 2020

6/5/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Friday, June 5th, 2020 through Monday, June 8th, 2020

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations Friday will be mostly Moderate; levels will be mostly Good Saturday and Sunday with just a few Moderates possible; mostly Moderate levels return Monday with a chance for isolated USG.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will range from upper Good to low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A frontal boundary will produce scattered precipitation Friday as it moves through the region. Warmer temperatures and southwesterly winds ahead of the front may allow for some Moderate ozone and fine particulate. For the weekend, high pressure builds in creating dry conditions and comfortable temperature and humidity levels.

As for air quality Saturday and Sunday, plenty of sunshine both days can be expected. Cooler temperatures at the surface and upper levels, coupled with northeasterly winds turning southeasterly, should hamper significant increases in pollution. However, it does not take much to reach low Moderate for ozone this time of year, so we expect readings to range from upper Good to low Moderate. Fine particulate will be mostly Good with scattered low Moderates possible Sunday, generally in the southeast.

By Monday, high pressure is near the east coast and we return to warmer temperatures and southerly winds both at the surface and upper levels. We should be coming off a low background of ozone so at this time we feel ozone will not reach higher than Moderate. If our feelings on that change, we will update this forecast Sunday to detail expected increases in ozone. Fine particulate Monday will range from upper Good to middle Moderate.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show increased temperatures continuing Tuesday and humidity levels will be on an increase as well. The big weather story will be the current tropical depression Cristobal moving into the Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Forecast models are showing its remnants moving north and into our region by Tuesday/Wednesday of next week.

Forecaset Updated by Stephanie M. Hengesbach, June 5th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, June 8th, 2020

6/1/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, June 1st, 2020 through Friday, June 5th, 2020

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be Moderate to High Moderate on Tuesday, then mostly Good to Low Moderate for the middle and end of week.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good to Low Moderates.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

The best chance for any higher-than-normal ozone numbers will come on Tuesday as we get into a sector of warm, moist air in advance of a Tuesday night front.  The computer models are showing some elevated ozone numbers between Benton Harbor and Muskegon.  I do not think it will elevate into any widespread USG as we are starting with a clean air mass, on Monday, and a front will pass later Tuesday night.  That said, I do anticipate that we will see ample Moderates along the lake shore.  While it is possible that an isolated USG could occur, it does not yet rise to the level of issuing any air advisories.

The rest of the work week should stay in Good/Low Moderate range thus I am not anticipating a need for a daily forecast update unless conditions change.  However, since we are getting into that time of year where longer days and strong sun prevail, it will be a good idea to update the forecast on Friday for the weekend.  And, of course, if anything does change during the week, we will update this forecast.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should remain mostly Good with some scattered Moderates going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, June 1st, 2020
Next forecast update: Friday, June 5th, 2020

5/26/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Tuesday, May 26th, 2020 through Monday, June 1st, 2020

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mostly Good to Low Moderate.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will also be mostly Good with scattered Low Moderates in urban areas.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Tuesday and Wednesday will be a replay of Sunday and Monday with warmer temperatures and pop-up thunderstorms.  Southerly winds will guarantee moist air will continue to pump into the state increasing the likelihood of atmospheric instability and scattered heavy rain pockets in the afternoon and evening.

In terms of Air Quality, Low Moderates are quite likely for fine particulates in the southeast corner of the state and Moderate ozone is possible north and northwest of Detroit.  The likelihood of shower activities will peak on Thursday in advance of a strong cold front passage Thursday night.

Friday and the weekend look drier and much cooler with Saturday highs in the mid-60’s.  The threat of anything worse than Good Air Quality, during the weekend, is unlikely after the passage of Thursday’s front.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should remain mostly Good with some scattered Low Moderates going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, May 26th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, June 1st, 2020

5/22/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Friday, May 22nd, 2020 through Tuesday, May 26th, 2020

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mostly Good with a few Moderates possible.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will range from upper Good to low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

An upper level system in Ohio is keeping clouds across much of the state Friday with more in the way of sunshine in upper locations. Scattered light precipitation may also be seen in the south as the system pulls northeast. Southeasterly winds and clouds will keep air quality Good for both ozone and fine particulate.

Weak surface ridging builds in late Friday into Saturday ahead of the next system which brings storms in the forecast later Saturday through early Sunday. What will be most noted will be the increase in temperatures and humidity levels as the weekend progresses making it feel very summer-like. While the holiday weekend will not be a complete washout, upper level disturbances moving through will keeping chances for storms in the forecast through the Memorial Day Holiday.

As for air quality, on and off clouds will be around through the weekend and as mentioned, so will chances for storms. But sunshine will be experienced at times and if precipitation holds off, increases of ozone into the Moderate range is a possibility. Weaker winds from the south and increased moisture could allow fine particulate to reach Moderate, especially across southern locations.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show a boundary becoming positioned over the state into next week. This will keep scattered clouds and precipitation in the forecast, along with warm, humid conditions. Ozone and fine particulate during this time is not expected to reach higher than Moderate.

Forecast Update by Stephanie M. Hengesbach: Friday Mary 22nd, 2020
Next forecast update: Tuesday, May 26th, 2020

5/18/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, May 18th, 2020 through Monday, May 25th, 2020

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be in the Good category.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will also be mostly Good.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

The low pressure system that has dumped a couple inches of rain across the state over the last two days will continue to affect our wind pattern for most of the work week.  The counterclockwise circulation around the low, currently located over Illinois, is providing easterly winds and Good Air Quality.

The slow-moving nature of this system will have it migrating southeastward over the next few days.  This will keep our winds with an easterly component and should keep our Air Quality in the Good category with some scattered Low Moderates west of the Detroit area.

The next change in the wind pattern, which could impact Air Quality, will not be seen until the weekend when winds turn calm before turning southwest in advance of the next low pressure system.  At that time, we may see some Low Moderates in fine particulates but should not significantly affect ozone concentrations.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should remain mostly Good with some scattered Low Moderates going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, May 18th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, May 25th, 2020

5/11/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, May 11th, 2020 through Monday, May 18th, 2020

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be in the Good category.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will range from Good to low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A weak system could produce light, scattered precipitation Monday, otherwise, high pressure moving in produces cold, quiet conditions through mid-week. Past mid-week, a warmer weather pattern sets-up but it will be accompanied by chances for rain.

As for air quality, cool northerly winds keep both ozone and fine particulate Good through Tuesday. High pressure settling overhead Wednesday may allow for some low Moderate fine particulate, however, ozone remains Good. The next system moves into the region later Wednesday/Thursday bringing warmer temperatures, clouds, and precipitation. Pollution levels will be Good Thursday, but lighter winds Friday could cause some low Moderate fine particulate.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show the front passing south Friday, but then brings it back north over the area during the weekend. Precipitation will be in the forecast through Sunday/early Monday. Warmer temperatures and increased moisture could allow for low Moderate fine particulate through early next week while clouds and precipitation are expected to keep ozone generally Good.

Forecast Updated By Stephanie M. Hengesbach: Monday, May 11th, 2020
Next Forecast Update : Monday, May 18th, 2020

5/4/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, May 4th, 2020 through Monday, May 11th, 2020

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be in the Good category.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Following a pleasant weekend which saw many get outside and tackle yard work, the upcoming week will provide an opportunity to let those sore muscles recover.  The 7-day forecast, and probably beyond, shows well below normal temperatures.  This pattern should peak in the Friday/Saturday time frame where a hard frost is expected and the possibility for snow showers returns.

The cold air filtering from the north will be very clean.  As a result, Air Quality should remain mostly Good through the forecast period.  As the origin of the air is very far north, it is expected to be very dry reducing the chance for any significant precipitation.  There will be a low system, which passes to our south across the Ohio Valley, which could provide some clouds and light showers in the southern tier counties, but nothing of significance.

The next chance of a system passing through the area will likely not be until the Sunday/Monday time slot.  Even then, we probably will not see much of a temperature warm-up and should still experience mostly Good Air Quality.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should remain mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, May 4th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, May 11th, 2020

4/27/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, April 27th, 2020 through Monday, May 4th, 2020

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will range from middle Good to low Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A weak disturbance drops in from the northwest Monday with increasing clouds and chances for precipitation moving from northwest to southeast. Precipitation then remains in the forecast as a low-pressure area develops and slowly tracks across the Great Lakes region through Thursday. Seasonable temperatures are expected with a predominant southerly component to the wind. This will change Thursday, however, as cool northerly winds develop behind the departing system. High pressure Friday brings precipitation to the end as temperatures moderate closer to normal.

As for air quality this week, light and/or southerly winds could allow for periods of low Moderate fine particulate, especially in southern portions of the state. Fine particulate levels improve later Thursday with northerly winds moving in; Good fine particulate is expected for Friday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show a weak front passing late Saturday into Sunday. The timing or strength of this system isn’t clear this far out; however, temperatures should remain seasonable. Without models showing an extended period of stagnation, fine particulate through early next week should not reach higher than low Moderate.

FORECAST UPDATED BY STEPHANIE M. HENGESBACH: MONDAY, April 27th, 2020.NEXT FORECAST UPDATE: MONDAY, May 4th, 2020

4/20/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, April 20th, 2020 through Monday, April 27th, 2020

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be a mixture of Good and Low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Monday will likely be the nicest day of the week before active weather moves through and drops temperatures to below-average levels.  Monday’s sun and warmer temperatures will end as a cold front drops down and passes through Monday night.  The colder air behind the front will provide Good Air Quality for the region.

Very cold air, Tuesday night, will give way to slightly warmer air during Wednesday and Thursday as a warm front migrates northward and stalls over the Michigan/Indiana border.  The air north of the front will still be cold enough to support snow showers and the placement of that stalled warm front will likely lead to some Low Moderates along the lake shore and Southeast Michigan areas.

By the weekend, that front should drop southward as a cold front and return the area back to solid Good levels which should persist through Sunday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, April 20th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, April 27th, 2020

4/13/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, April 13th, 2020 through Monday, April 20th, 2020

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations should be mostly Good through Thursday with Moderates possible later in the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A strong storm system moving through the Great Lakes region is producing strong winds statewide and snow accumulations across parts of the Upper Peninsula. Winds will be the most influential part of the storm further south with temperatures dropping during the day. Strong northwesterly winds will keep fine particulate in the Good range.

Looking into the week, conditions should be generally dry and only small chance for precipitation exists Tuesday and Wednesday. Cool air will be in place with temperatures averaging below normal during the work week. A northerly component to the wind both at the surface and upper levels should keep fine particulate Good through Thursday. Lighter winds are anticipated Friday as a storm system passes south through the Ohio Valley. Fine particulate may reach low-end Moderate, mainly across the southern portion of the state.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show temperatures moderating for the weekend. High pressure settles in Saturday but a storm system passing across the northern Great Lakes brings precipitation in the forecast early next week. Fine particulate will range from middle Good to low Moderate during this period.

Forecast updated by Stephanie M. Hengesbach: Monday, April 13th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, April 20th, 2020

4/6/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, April 6th, 2020 through Monday, April 13th, 2020

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be a mixture of Good and Low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

We will enjoy a couple more days of warmer weather before temperatures cool back down for the second half of the week.

Monday will see some sun before an approaching warm front causes clouds to develop from overriding warm air over cooler air.  As the warm front approaches and passes during Tuesday, we can expect warm temperatures around 60 along with some shower activity.  The warmer, moist air will also increase the likelihood of Low Moderate fine particulates in the southern half of the state. 

The cold front associated with the same low pressure system will pass Tuesday night providing more shower activity.  I expect clearing behind the front and a mostly pleasant day during Wednesday with some localized Low Moderate conditions but mostly Good.

The biggest change occurs Wednesday night with the passage of a stronger cold front.  Cooler and cleaning air will filter in on the back side.  This will drop our temperatures 10-15 degrees below normal and will provide Good Air Quality.  This cooler, cleaner air should persist into the weekend.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, April 6th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, April 13th, 2020