1/4/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, January 4th, 2021 through Monday, January 11th, 2021

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to range from upper Good to middle Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A weak front passing later Monday may trigger scattered flurries and/or drizzle into Tuesday, otherwise, mostly cloudy, and quiet conditions will exist this week. Low level moisture will be increased the next few days thanks to lighter winds, subsidence, and snow cover over most of the state. The combination of these conditions will keep fine particulate upper Good to middle Moderate through mid-week.

On Thursday, surface high pressure will still be dominating the region, however, a storm system passing well south and east of Michigan will produce easterly winds over the state. The east to northeasterly flow towards the end of the workweek could bring some improvement to fine particulate levels, but readings in the Moderate range are still a possibility.

Weaker winds move back in for the weekend as high pressure slides in from the northwest. The threat for moderate fine particulate is expected to continue into the weekend.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show the next system bringing light precipitation early next week. There is some uncertainty, but regardless on the strength and timing, there does not look to be a good airmass change coming. Therefore, a Moderate fine particulate forecast will likely continue

Forecast updated by Meteorologist Stephanie M. Hengesbach Monday, January 4th, 2021.
Next forecast update: Monday, January 11th, 2021

12/28/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, December 28th, 2020 through Monday, January 4th, 2021

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be a mix of Good and Moderate during through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

An exiting cold front, Monday morning, will provide cooler temperatures and Good Air Quality early in the week.  A series of frontal passages, throughout the forecast period, should keep the atmosphere well mixed. 

Tuesday should be a dry and calm day with continued Good Air Quality.  During Wednesday however, winds will transcend from northeast to southeast to southwest before the next cold passage during the afternoon. 

Easterly winds set up later Thursday, thanks to a low pressure system that comes up the Mississippi Valley on Friday, and slides northeast through Southeast Michigan early Saturday.  Northwest winds behind that system will keep the atmosphere mixed and clean into Sunday in advance of the next system during the Tuesday time frame.

With all the turnovers in the atmosphere, conditions should remain mostly Good with an occasional Moderate in the more urban areas.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should again be mostly Good to occasional Moderator going into next week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, December 28th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, January 4th, 2021

12/21/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, December 21st, 2020 through Monday, December 28th, 2020

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be upper Good to middle Moderate through mid-week, then Good Christmas Eve and Christmas Day. Moderate levels may move back in for the weekend.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A clipper system tracking northwest to southeast Monday will bring with it some light precipitation, mostly falling as snow. A high-pressure ridge slides through Tuesday. As it tracks east, northerly winds turn southwesterly and increase in speed early Wednesday ahead of the next approaching system. For the Christmas Holiday, we can expect dropping temperatures late Wednesday, into Christmas Eve as a cold front brings in strong northwesterly winds in its wake. The cold front will have some precipitation associated with it, but what will be most noticed will be the drop in temperatures Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, and lake effect snows kicking in.

As for air quality, fine particulate levels have been lingering mostly in the low to middle Moderate range since this past weekend. While levels should improve some behind the Monday system, 24-hour readings Monday and Tuesday may still linger in the low Moderate range. Stronger southwesterly winds Wednesday will hamper a significant fine particulate building up. Readings statewide will improve to Good late Wednesday as cold artic air ushers in on a northwest wind. Good fine particulate readings can be expected both Christmas Eve and Christmas Day.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show lake effect snows ending Saturday as high pressure moves in. Generally quiet weather is expected Saturday and early Sunday with the next system approaching by Monday. Without a noteworthy period of stagnation, fine particulate during the weekend into early next week will range from middle Good to low Moderate.

Forecast Updated by Stephanie M. Hengesbach December 21st, 2020.
Next forecast update: Monday, December 28th, 2020

12/14/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, December 14th, 2020 through Monday, December 21st, 2020

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good through mid-week with levels ranging upper Good to middle Moderate the rest of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The week starts with lake effect snow showers Monday thanks to a cold northwest wind. The light snow ends Tuesday as high pressure builds in, and quiet conditions are expected the rest of the workweek. Cool temperatures are forecast Tuesday through mid-week, but readings should moderate towards the end of the week as southerly winds develop.

As for air quality, fine particulate levels should remain Good due to northwest winds Monday and easterly winds Tuesday into Wednesday. Lighter winds in the morning could allow for hourly fine particulate concentrations in the Moderate range; however, daily averages should be Good. Lighter winds by Thursday turn back to a southerly direction as weak ridging remains nearby. Some locations, especially in the south or areas with any snow accumulation, may reach Moderate for fine particulate Thursday and again Friday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show the next weather system holding off until Saturday when rain and/or snow returns to the forecast. This does not seem to be a strong system, but northerly winds in its wake should bring any Moderate fine particulate back to Good early next week.

Forecast Updated by Meteorologist Stephanie M. Hengesbach December 14th, 2020.
Next forecast update: Monday, December 21st, 2020.

12/7/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, December 7th, 2020 through Monday, December 14th, 2020

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be a mix of Good and Moderate during through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

I am expecting a mixture of Good and Moderate readings throughout the work week.  We start the week under a dome of stagnant air with no significant changes until the weekend.  Fortunately, the Moderates we are seeing are fairly low.

The latest model runs have trended toward warmer temperatures beginning midweek. An expanding high pressure ridge will cause temperatures to rise above normal by Wednesday with chances for precipitation beginning Friday.  This will also contribute to frequent Moderate levels, especially in the southern half of the state.

I see a weak front during Thursday but with little support for a total atmospheric cleanout.  The most significant weather event I see, during the forecast period, is a cold front during the day on Saturday which should clean up the atmosphere for the rest of the weekend. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should again be Good to Moderator going into next week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, December 7th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, December 14th, 2020

11/30/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, November 30th, 2020 through Monday, December 7th, 2020

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good through mid-week with levels ranging upper Good to low Moderate the rest of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A low-pressure area east/northeast of the region produces northerly winds over the state through mid-week. This system will keep snow chances in the forecast Monday and Tuesday in the southeast, and lake effect snows in the most prone west Michigan lakeshore areas. After the system pulls away, expect dry and comfortable conditions for the rest of the week.

As for air quality, fine particulate levels are expected to remain Good thanks to stronger north winds early in the week. The direction changes to the west/northwest by Wednesday keeping fine particulate Good. Lighter winds move in Thursday and Friday and readings could reach the low Moderate range at a few locations.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show a reinforcement of northerly winds for the weekend, and a possible system early next week. Even with some uncertainty in the weather conditions, fine particulate through the weekend and early next week are not expected to reach higher than low Moderate.

Forecast Updated by Stephanie M. Hengesbach Monday November 30th, 2020.
Next forecast update: Monday, December 7th, 2020

11/23/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, November 23rd, 2020 through Monday, November 30th, 2020

 PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will also be mostly Good with occasional Moderate during cold morning, calm wind inversions.

 FORECAST DISCUSSION

 A series of fronts passing through the region during the holiday week should keep the atmosphere well mixed resulting in mostly Good Air Quality.

 The first front will pass through during Monday and clean out any residual high particulates we saw during the weekend when we experienced strong morning inversions.  That will be followed by a short period of high pressure then southerly winds before the next low pressure system early Thursday morning.  Air Quality should be generally good with some isolated Low Moderate readings in urban areas.

 The Thursday cleanout will be followed by another fast-moving front during Friday.  That will lead to cooler weather during the weekend and another dry cold front late Sunday.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality should be mostly Good going into next week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, November 23rd, 2020

Next forecast update: Monday, November 30th, 2020

11/16/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, November 16th, 2020 through Monday, November 23rd, 2020

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good through mid-week with levels ranging upper Good to middle Moderate the rest of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A weather system dropping in from the northwest Monday brings precipitation (mostly snow) in the forecast as the day progresses. After this system passes, high pressure builds in and a warmup is expected past mid-week.

Cool west/northwesterly winds should keep fine particulate in the Good range Monday and Tuesday. High pressure moves overhead, then east of the region, Wednesday. Winds decrease in speed Wednesday and change to more of a southerly direction. Stronger southwesterly winds Thursday and Friday will warm temperatures above seasonable levels. Warmer conditions coupled with southerly winds could allow for a fine particulate increase into the Moderate range.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show a frontal boundary setting up over the region this coming weekend. The exact placement is uncertain; however, increased moisture would bring precipitation back in the forecast. Winds may be lighter and with a boundary nearby, fine particulate will likely range from upper Good to middle Moderate.

Forecast Updated by Meteorologist Stephanie M. Hengesbach Monday, November 16th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, November 23rd, 2020

11/9/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, November 9th, 2020 through Monday, November 16th, 2020

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will also be mostly Moderate early in the week then mostly Good for the remainder of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Unseasonably warm weather will persist through Tuesday before a cold front will return the region back to more seasonable temperatures.  Until then, we will likely see temperatures in the low 70’s during Monday and Tuesday then dropping some 20 degrees cooler on Wednesday.  Southerly winds during Monday and Tuesday will likely keep conditions Moderate until the Wednesday morning cleanout.

Cleaner, colder air will filter in Wednesday morning and bring Good Air Quality back to the region.  High pressure will accompany the cleaner air mass which will slowly drift eastward Wednesday and Thursday.  We will briefly get back into a southerly air flow Thursday before the next front Friday morning.  High pressure returns for the weekend and continued Good Air Quality.

Southerly winds briefly return during Sunday before the next cold front Sunday night.

With these series of frequent fronts followed by cleanouts, I anticipate mostly Good Air Quality from Wednesday through next Monday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into next week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, November 9th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, November 16th, 2020

11/2/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, November 2nd, 2020 through Monday, November 9th, 2020

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will range from Good to low Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A beautiful fall week is setting up with generally sunny skies and warming temperatures. Before then, cool westerly winds persist Monday into Tuesday keeping fine particulate Good. As high pressure at the surface and upper levels builds south then east of the region, southwest winds develop bringing in warmer temperatures. Highs past mid-week are expected to reach the 60s across most of the state. The southwesterly flow should be strong enough to hamper a significant rise in fine particulate in the long term.

The best chance at seeing Moderate fine particulate this week will be towards the end of the week in the east/southeast. However, daily levels ranging higher than low to middle Moderate are not anticipated.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show the next storm system approaching the state early next week; late Sunday/early Monday. Until then, warmer conditions continue and fine particulate during the weekend and early next week should range from upper Good to low Moderate.

Forecast Updated by Stephanie M. Hengesbach November 11th, 2020.
Next forecast update: Monday, November 9th, 2020

10/26/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, October 26th, 2020 through Monday, November 2nd, 2020

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be Good through the forecast period. 

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will also be mostly Good.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

No overly interesting features look to be on tap for the weekly forecast.  An upper wave is passing across the state during Monday to provide clouds, but limited precipitation, due to dry air at the surface.  Air Quality is Good to start the week.

High pressure will build into the state, beginning Tuesday, to provide sunny skies for Wednesday.  We may see some Wednesday morning hourly readings of fine particulates in the Moderate range but they should wash out as the day progresses.

Some rain is possible Thursday, especially in the southern tier of the state with a combination of Tropical Storm Zeta to our south and a low pressure system dropping down from Canada.  Air Quality should remain mostly Good.

Cooler air returns on Friday followed by a warming trend through the weekend.  At worst, we may see some brief Moderates but overall Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good.

The ozone season officially ends at the end of October.  Our forecasts, starting in November, will focus on fine particulates until ozone season returns in March 2021.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into next week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, October 26th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, November 2nd, 2020

10/19/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, October 19th, 2020 through Monday, October 26th, 2020

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be Good through the period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will range from Good to low Moderate at times.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

An active weather pattern is setting up this week as disturbances moving through keeps on and off precipitation in the forecast. Temperatures will be cool enough for precipitation to change to snow at times, especially further north. Cooler temperatures will exist through mid-week, then expect a warmup Thursday and Friday. This will be short-lived; however, because readings will fall after the passage of a stronger cold front late Friday.

Without a decent period of stagnation this week, both ozone and fine particulate are expected to remain generally Good. The best chance at seeing some low Moderate fine particulate I feel will be early Tuesday and maybe again early Thursday. Otherwise, I feel like the daily averages of fine particulate will remain mostly Good.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show high pressure moving in Sunday with yet another system bringing precipitation late Sunday/Monday. Aside from a few low-Moderate fine particulate concentrations in the south, pollution levels early next week should continue in the Good range.

Forecast Updated by Meteorologist Stephanie M. Hengesbach: Monday October 19th, 2020.
Next forecast update: Monday, October 26th, 2020

10/12/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, October 12th, 2020 through Monday, October 16th, 2020

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mostly Good through the forecast period. 

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will also be mostly Good.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

We will experience a series of fronts, during the week, which will keep the atmosphere well mixed.  During Monday, the state will briefly be in the warm air sector found between a warm front and a cold front that will pass Monday night.  The brisk winds should keep all Air Quality readings in the Good category.

A second front will pass late Tuesday night with little fanfare.  The third and most significant front of the week will pass early Thursday with a sharp cool-down in its wake.  All of this activity should keep Air Quality mostly Good through the work week.

The best chance of any Moderate readings for fine particulates will come early in the weekend as a large high pressure ridge slides eastward across the Midsouth states.  Calm nights will set up strong morning inversions and a good chance for widespread frost.

The fourth front of the forecast period should pass early Monday morning followed by another cool-down. 

EXTENDED FORECAST: 

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into next week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, October 12th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, October 16th, 2020

10/5/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, October 5th, 2020 through Monday, October 12th, 2020

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good; some low Moderates are possible late in the period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be Good through mid-week with a mix of Good and low-Moderates the rest of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Over the next week the only chances for precipitation come late Monday into Tuesday, then again late Tuesday into Wednesday. The first system is a weak boundary and any associated precipitation will be light and contained to the norther portion of the state. The second system is more organized and better chances for rain exist; however, the precipitation will again be more confined to northern areas. Aside from these systems, the region will be dominated with high pressure producing sunshine and dry conditions. Cooler temperatures through mid-week will moderate for the end of the week and weekend.

Last week Good air quality was seen for both ozone and fine particulate. The expected ozone forecast this next week will be a continuation of primarily Good levels. This can be attributed to cooler temperatures at both the surface and upper levels through mid-week. As high pressure builds overhead Thursday and then east Friday, warmer temperatures enter the region with the warmest reading expected Saturday. Warmer surface and upper level temperatures, coupled with plenty of sunshine, could allow for low-Moderate ozone in a few southern monitors; however, it’s too late in the season for widespread increased ozone. The threat for low-Moderates could continue into early next week, but again, most locations should remain Good.

The two systems early in the week will produce a northwesterly flow in their wake. This will help fine particulate stay generally Good through Wednesday. Lighter winds Thursday, turning southerly Friday could be a period of low-Moderate fine particulate, especially in southern portion of the state. Increased wind speeds Saturday should keep fine particulate from increasing higher than a continuation of low-Moderate.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show high pressure being reinforced early next week with a continuation of dry conditions and comfortable fall temperatures. Air quality early next week is not expected to be higher than low-Moderate for either ozone or fine particulate.

Forecast Update by Meteorologist Stephanie M. Hengesbach Monday October 5th, 2020.
Next forecast update: Monday, October 12th, 2020

9/28/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, September 28th, 2020 through Monday, October 5th, 2020

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mostly Good through the forecast period.  

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will also be mostly Good.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

The warm dry weather experienced, last week, will be replaced by cooler wet weather, this week.  During Monday, areas of showers will persist between a front that passed through Sunday night and another front that will pass through Monday night.  Monday Air Quality is currently Good.

More showers are expected Wednesday as a stronger cold front passes through the region with cooler air behind it.  This will provide a good cleanout including no overhead smoke form the western fires and continued Good Air Quality.  Showers will likely persist through Thursday before a dry out period begins on Friday lasting until another weak front passes during Sunday,  All in all, Air Quality should be mostly Good through the entire forecast period.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into next week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, September 28th, 202
Next forecast update: Monday, October 5th, 2020

9/25/2020

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Friday, September 25th, 2020 through Monday, September 28th, 2020

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good; some Moderates are possible Friday or Saturday.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will range from upper Good to middle Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A frontal boundary lingering over the northern portion of the state keeps clouds and precipitation in the forecast. Further south, summer-like conditions are in store as we end the week. Warm southerly winds will produce above normal temperatures and partly to mostly sunny skies prevail though Saturday afternoon. A cold front approaching by Sunday brings increasing clouds late Saturday and chances for precipitation Sunday afternoon/evening. Looking at the smoke plume analysis, smoke is lingering across the southern portion of the state. Smoke will likely linger over parts of the region this weekend; however, the smoke layer will be pushed out early next week.

As for air quality, fine particulate levels have been upper Good to low Moderate since Tuesday, and ozone has been mostly Good with only one monitor in the southwest reaching just over the Moderate threshold Wednesday, and four locations in the southeast Thursday. Fine particulate mostly in the Moderate range is likely across the southern portion of the state Friday and Saturday with Good levels up north. For ozone, southerly winds and warmer temperatures are conducive for increasing levels. Plenty of sunshine Friday will provide the best chance for Moderates as increasing clouds Saturday into Sunday should hamper ozone development. Also, the earlier sunset this time of year will help as ozone will not have as much time to develop. On Sunday, Good ozone is expected while any Moderate fine particulate should improve late in the day.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show unsettled weather developing next week with chances for precipitation and a drop in temperatures. This set-up will provide Good air quality.

Forecast update by Stephanie M. Hengesbach September 25th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, September 28th, 2020

9/21/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, September 21st, 2020 through Friday, September 25th, 2020

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good; some Moderates are possible late in the week.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will range from upper Good to middle Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Weak disturbances may bring a few periods of precipitation to the northern portion of the state; however, most areas will be dominated by high pressure providing dry conditions and moderating temperatures through the week. Another item to note, wildfire smoke has returned which will again provide a hazy look to the sky.

Air quality this past weekend was Good for both ozone and fine particulate aside from two monitors in the southeast that reached low Moderate for fine particulate. For Monday and Tuesday, winds will be from a southerly direction, but surface and upper level temperatures look to remain low enough (along with earlier sunset this time of year), where ozone will stay generally Good. Smoke forecast models show the plume staying “elevated” the next few days; therefore, it should not have a negative impact on fine particulate. With lighter southerly winds, fine particulate will range from upper Good to low Moderate.

By mid-week, west/southwesterly winds continue with high pressure to our east. Making the forecast a bit challenging is uncertainty on how the smoke over the region will play out as the week progresses. Models show the plume reaching closer to the ground and this is something we will keep an eye on. Considering there is no real air mass change this week, we would expect fine particulate to increase into the Moderate range, especially across the southern portion of the state. Ozone may also increase into low-Moderate.

Similar conditions continue through Friday and more widespread Moderate pollution levels are a good possibility. By Saturday, temperatures as the surface and upper levels increase and coupled with plenty of sunshine, conditions look more conducive for ozone development. While it is late in the ozone season, it’s not out of the question to see elevated ozone in September; therefore, we will be updating the forecast Friday to detail expected pollution levels for the weekend.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show the next chance for widespread precipitation comes with a storm system passing late Saturday into Sunday. Good pollution levels should return early next week.

Forecast Update By: Stephanie M. Hengesbach September 21, 2020.
Next forecast update: Friday, September 25th, 2020

9/14/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, September 14th, 2020 through Monday, September 21st, 2020

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be mostly Good through the forecast period. 

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

The forecast week looks to be mostly sunny, dry and comfortable with Good Air Quality.  During Monday, a high pressure ridge slides eastward putting the Midwest under warm and dry southwest winds.  At the same time, westerly winds aloft are bringing in smoke from the western fires.  Skies will be noticeably less blue with colorful sunrise and sunsets.  Fortunately, the high level of smoke plume should not filter down to the surface in amounts that could significantly affect our Air Quality.

Southwest winds, behind the high pressure will drive temperatures to near 80 degrees, by Wednesday afternoon.  As such, Wednesday looks to be the best chance for any Moderate ozone levels.

The passage of a cold front, Wednesday, will place the region into a cooler air mass and Good Air Quality.  Night-time temperatures, Thursday and Friday, could drop as low as the mid-30’s.  By Sunday and Monday, surface winds shifting from southeast to southwest will provide another warming trend, but I expect Air Quality to remain Good.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into next week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, September 14th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, September 21st, 2020

9/8/2020 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Tuesday, September 8th, 2020 through Monday, September 14th, 2020

OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good through the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be generally Good.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A frontal boundary stalled south of the state will keep cool temperatures and showers/storms in the forecast through mid-week. High pressure sinking in from the north Thursday should dry conditions out, lasting through part of Saturday. However, another system brings precipitation back in the forecast late in the weekend.

With a primarily cool/cloudy pattern this week, and northeasterly winds, air quality is anticipated to be Good for both ozone and fine particulate. As high-pressure slides in Thursday, clouds will decrease during the day with more in the way of sunshine Friday and early Saturday. Temperatures at the surface and upper levels, though, should keep ozone generally Good while fine particulate may reach low Moderate in the southeastern part of the state.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show a system moving through late Saturday into Sunday with high pressure returning Monday. Clouds/precipitation should keep air quality Good Sunday and northerly winds by Monday will continue the Good air quality trend into early next week.

Forecast Updated By Stephanie M. Hengesbach September 8th, 2020
Next forecast update: Monday, September 14th, 2020

8/31/2020 Forecast Upadate

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, August 31st, 2020 through Tuesday, September 8th, 2020

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations will be a mixture of Good and Moderate through the forecast period.  

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Last week, we issued what we optimistically hope to be the last Action Day Advisory for 2020.  That forecast, for Wednesday, proved to be accurate as four monitors on the West Side did cross into the USG range.

This week should be cleaner and easier to forecast as we head into the Labor Day weekend.  Temperatures will be more typical for this time of year with daily highs around 80 degrees. 

During Monday, high pressure will exit the area with a frontal passage expected Tuesday morning.  Clouds and precipitation are expected Tuesday and Wednesday as a result of this passage.  Thursday is showing strong southwest winds in advance of another front.  But the short duration of these winds and daytime high temperatures only around 80 should keep things no worse than Moderate.

The holiday weekend looks mostly dry with seasonal temperatures until a strong front pushes through during Sunday afternoon.  Cooler temperatures are expected for the beginning of next week.

Right now, it looks safe to forecast through the weekend and Monday holiday.  However, if conditions change, we will revise this forecast, as necessary.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into next week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, August 31st, 2020
Next forecast update: Tuesday, September 8th, 2020