04/13/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday, April 13, 2023, through Friday, April 14, 2023

OZONE: 8-hour average ozone concentrations are expected to be Moderate to USG through the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be mostly Good to Low Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

While highly unusual for mid-April, conditions under a slow-moving high-pressure system have created conditions for elevated ozone, this week.  The past few days have seen 1-hour concentrations in the low 70 ppb range and 8-hour averages in the mid-60 ppb range.  While Thursday is expected to be similar, Friday has changes which create concerns for even higher ozone development. 

Of concern are lower wind speeds which will allow for stagnation rather than the well mixed atmosphere under the breezy conditions of the past few days.  This will affect SE Michigan the most.  Winds will become more southerly which will allow pollutants to stay out over Lake Michigan longer and have a better chance for additional photochemical reaction.  An afternoon lake breeze could bring those higher concentrations inland.  The other Lake Michigan states are also posting USG warning along the lake shore, as well.  In SE Michigan, the ozone plume will be pushed north of Detroit rather than to the east. 

As a result of these concern, Air Quality Advisories are being issued for the Lake Michigan shore from the Indiana boundary up to Leelanau County and the seven counties that make up SE Michigan.

The models are showing increasing clouds on Saturday which should make this a one-day event.  However, if the approaching system slows, Saturday may still be in play.  As such, the forecast will be updated Friday morning.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good begin the next work week.

Next Forecast update: Friday, April 14, 2023

04/12/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Wednesday, April 12, 2023, through Thursday, April 13, 2023

OZONE: 8-hour average ozone concentrations are expected to be mostly Good to Moderate through the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be mostly Good to Low Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

This has been an interesting week to track in terms of Air Quality.  We do not usually encounter ozone problems during April, especially the first half of April.  However, this week has proven to be an exception.

We have been seeing an increase in ozone production, each day, this week. Yesterday, we had some monitors in excess of 70 ppb for the 1-hour average.  What has saved us, so far, is the upper atmosphere is still cold, low dew points, limited daylight hours, and a brisk wind to keep the atmosphere well mixed.  If those factors were not in play, we would likely be looking at elevated ozone and be issuing Air Quality Advisories.

Thursday will most likely stay in the Moderate range for the reasons stated above.  However, Friday may be more challenging.  As the big, slow moving, high pressure system that has been giving us this great weather moves to the east, winds become a bit more southerly and not quite as strong.  Even with the early April limited hours of sunlight, skies will stay clear allowing maximum solar energy to get through.  Add the fact that each day has provided more ozone to the background to prime the next day’s ozone production.

As such, the forecast will be updated Thursday morning.  Friday should be the last day of concern as a low pressure system will approach on Saturday and move through the region during Sunday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good begin the next work week.

Next Forecast update: Thursday, April 13, 2023

04/03/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday April 3rd, 2023, through Monday April 10th, 2023

OZONE: Ozone concentrations look to remain Good for the forecast period.

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to low-Moderate. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

For the lower peninsula of Michigan, it appears Spring has finally sprung with the majority of temperatures in the 50s and 60s for the foreseeable future. The upper peninsula will need a few more weeks to catch up as colder temperatures and lingering snowfall hangs around to the north.

For this week, multiple rounds of precipitation look to impact Michigan with some severity thrown into the mix on Tuesday and into Wednesday. A chance for thunderstorms is becoming more likely as model output is fine-tuned for midweek. The Low-pressure system and associated frontal boundary will exit the area on Thursday leaving breezy conditions in its wake for most of the day until a High-pressure system sets up just to our west on Friday. The weekend ahead looks to be dry and sunny with the help of the High-pressure lingering in the region. Sunday night into Monday brings the next chance of precipitation as another Low-pressure and cold front traverses the region with rain being the predominant precipitation type.

For air quality, it is still a little too early to notice any uptick in Ozone concentrations, but we are starting to look it at more so with temperatures rising and daylight lasting longer. For PM-2.5, the multiple rounds of precipitation and continuous breezy conditions will help keep concentrations at bay for the majority of the forecast period. With the High-pressure in place this weekend, concentrations may stick around, but should only be in the mid-Moderate range if that is the case. There may also be low-Moderate hourly concentrations most of the mornings this week per usual.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Next week looks to continue the trend of precipitation with Monday looking to have rain in the forecast for the majority of the day. Overall air quality to start next week looks to remain Good.

Next Forecast update: Monday April 10th, 2023

3/27/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday March 27th, 2023, through Monday April 3rd, 2023

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to low-Moderate. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The month of March ends with temperatures nearing seasonal averages for most of Michigan with consistent seasonal norms as we get into April.

For this week, we start out today, Monday, with northerly flow providing cooler temperatures in the northern parts of the state. Winds shift throughout the day on Tuesday to more WSW with more chances of sunshine than today, Monday. A change in airmass comes through on Wednesday with a Low-pressure system and associated cold front. This will drop temperatures back below freezing for much of the state, but temperatures rebound on Thursday with a return to upper-30s and 40s. Southerly flow returns once the Low-pressure exits the area and gives way to High-pressure to our southeast. This lasts through Friday until a quick-hitting cold front comes through on Saturday providing mixed precipitation throughout the state and dropping temperatures slightly. This airmass sticks around through Sunday until a warm front appears to eclipse Michigan next Monday which may push some areas into the 60s.

For air quality, with the help of changing airmasses, PM-2.5 concentrations do not look like they will be a concern for this forecast period. Overall PM-2.5 concentrations will be Good with a chance of a few hours of Moderate in the morning hours of more populated areas.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

As stated above, a warm front appears to come through to start off next week. Overall air quality will remain Good.

Next Forecast update: Monday April 3rd, 2023

3/20/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, March 20, 2023, through Monday, March 27, 2023

PM-2.5:
24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Winter is hanging on as demonstrated by the past weekend.  Daytime high temperatures should be in the mid-40’s but we struggled to get much above the freezing mark during the weekend.  Snowfall amounts for the first half of March exceed the totals of January and February, combined.  While we should see some 50-degree weather during mid-week, we will not see a breakthrough warmup that we can call a Spring tease.

Air Quality is expected to be mostly Good though the forecast period.  Monday will start the week under sunny but windy skies.  The clear skies will give way, late Monday, as a cold front drops down from the north and stalls out across the middle of the Lower-Peninsula.  It will lift northward during Wednesday as a warm front.

A surface low will be approaching the state during Wednesday from the west and be over northern Indiana by Thursday morning and over Cleveland by Friday morning.  Some precipitation is expected from this system which should be mostly rain.

While the weekend forecast might be a bit premature, it does not appear too threatening with the occasional chance of rain or snow showers and seasonable temperatures.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to begin the next work week.

Next Forecast update: Monday, March 27th, 2023

3/13/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, March 13, 2023, through Monday, March 20, 2023

PM-2.5:
PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to low-Moderate. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Winter’s grip continues to grasp onto Michigan to start off this week with many areas across the state seeing snow showers waking up this Monday morning. These snow showers should slowly dissipate as the day carries on leaving a few inches in their path. These snow showers are accompanied by northerly winds which will keep temperatures in the mid-20s to low-30s through Tuesday. A change in airmass comes Wednesday as winds shift to more southwesterly flow which will bump temperatures to the upper-30s and low-40s. This airmass lasts through Thursday until yet another system makes its way through the region on Friday. A Low-pressure system comes up from the southwest and will have a mixed batch of precipitation—rain, snow, and possible freezing rain. It is still too far out for true model agreement as models are nowhere near agreement on this system. The north or south trajectory will determine where the rain/snow line sets up, which will become more prominent as the week carries on. The system, as of right now, appears to somewhat stall over the region lasting through Saturday so additional precipitation may accrue due to that, along with winds staying relatively strong. As Sunday approaches, the system moves off to the east, shifting winds back to NNW and bringing colder temperatures back into the region.

In terms of air quality, northerly winds for a big portion of this week will keep PM-2.5 concentrations at bay. There may be low-mid Moderate concentrations in the morning hours but will dissipate as each day carries on. The end of the week system will clean out any buildup that occurs and will keep overall air quality Good for the weekend ahead.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

A slight warm up occurs on Monday which will possibly increase PM-2.5 concentrations to the Moderate range for a few hours, but overall air quality will remain Good to start off next week.

Next Forecast update: Monday, March 20th, 2023

3/6/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, March 6, 2023, through Monday, March 13, 2023

PM-2.5:
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will range primarily Good with only small chances for low Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A low-pressure area tracking just south of the state Monday brings snow across central/northern locations and rain chances further south. High pressure then settles in producing dry and cool conditions for a few days. The next system brings mostly snow chances back in the forecast Friday while rain may mix in across southern areas.

As for air quality, Good to low-end Moderate fine particulate levels are anticipated Monday as the low passes to our south. The dominating weather feature then turns to high pressure positioned northwest/north of the state through midweek. Expect northerly winds and mostly Good fine particulate through Thursday. By Friday, easterly winds ahead of the next storm could allow for scattered low-Moderate fine particulate levels, otherwise, readings remain Good.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show high pressure moving behind the Friday system with dry conditions Saturday into Sunday. Some models are showing the next weather feature bringing precipitation back late Sunday into Monday. Without a stagnant period or warm-up expected, fine particulate should remain mostly Good into early next week.

Next Forecast update: Monday, March 13th, 2023

2/27/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, February 27, 2023, through Monday, March 6, 2023

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good with occasional Low Moderate late in the weekend.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The forecast week start off messy with another winter system moving through the Midwest.  A warm front to the south causes warm, moist air to override colder Michigan air.  That scenario will yield rain in Southern Michigan, mixed precipitation in the middle, and snow to the north under easterly winds.  While messy, it should not last as long as last week’s winter storm and Air Quality is currently generally Good.

This system should be out of the picture early Tuesday replaced with westerly winds and continued Good Air Quality.  A weaker system is expected to move east into the area late Tuesday night bringing a light accumulation of rain in the south and snow in the middle and north.  Northeasterly winds will follow and more Good Air Quality.

The main event for the forecast period will come in the form of a strong system which will move into the area during Friday.  There is the potential for a significant snowstorm although the potential precipitation type and amount will be determined by the track of the storm.  Currently, the computer models are confining precipitation to the southern half of the state.

If any Low Moderates occur during this forecast period, it will likely occur later in the weekend when wind speeds are low and some stagnation could occur.  But for the most part, Good Air Quality will rule this forecast period.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to begin the next work week.

Next Forecast update: Monday, March 6, 2023

2/21/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday February 21st, 2023, through Monday February 27th, 2023

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to low-Moderate. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Unseasonably warm temperatures come to an end this week as a potential winter storm will impact all of Michigan Wednesday into Thursday. The most impactful timeframe will be Wednesday evening through Thursday morning with more ice potential in the southern portions of the state and upwards of 6-10+ inches of snow possible for northern portions of Michigan. This system exits the area Thursday afternoon and leaves a swath of mixed precipitation and temperatures ranging the from upper teens to low 30s depending on the north or south location in Michigan. Accompanying this storm are strong winds with wind gusts upwards of 35 mph predominantly from the northeast. Going into the weekend, High-pressure sets up to our west and then to our east as the weekend carries on. Temperatures hover around the upper-20s and low-30s with shifting south to southwesterly winds. Monday sees a slight warmup with the majority of Michigan above the freezing mark with the help of southeast winds.

In term of air quality, ample winds to start off this week has helped to keep PM2.5 concentrations at bay and in the Good to low-Moderate category. The impending system mid-week will help keep the concentrations at bay even more so, especially with the increase in winds. As winds subside going into the weekend, PM2.5 concentrations will have the chance to increase but a cooler atmosphere will help keep concentrations lower as warmer temperatures and melting of snow does not look to happen until early next week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

After a slight warmup on Monday, temperatures return to seasonal norms as a frontal boundary comes through early Tuesday morning. Overall air quality will remain Good.

Next Forecast update: Monday February 21st, 2023

2/17/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, February 17, 2023, through Tuesday, February 21, 2023

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will range between Good and Moderate this forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The forecast period begins with Good fine particulate thanks to northerly winds behind the Thursday storm which brought snow across much of the state and also mixed precipitation further south. High pressure will be the dominating weather feature early in the Presidents Day weekend. Cold conditions Friday moderate by Saturday as the high tracks east of the state.

As for air quality, northerly winds Friday switch more southwesterly Saturday. With warmer air moving over the recent snow, we can expect an associated increase in fine particulate levels. Fine particulate should be in the upper Good to middle Moderate range. A weak clipper system tracks north of the state Sunday bringing snow chances further north, but winds should be strong enough to hamper a significant increase in pollution levels. Winds shift northerly for a short time late Sunday/early Monday before decreasing in speed between two weather systems. Since this will not be a prolonged stagnant weather pattern, daily averages of fine particulate should remain in the upper Good to middle Moderate range early next week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show a weaker system passing to the north Tuesday, then a more active period later in the week. If the timing of the Tuesday system remains on track, chances for snow make a return across the northern portion of the region and a wind shift to the northwest should improve any possible fine particulate buildup. Regardless on how the timing of that system pans out, fine particulate is not expected to reach higher than Moderate towards the end of the forecast period.

Next Forecast update: Tuesday, February 21, 2023

Stephanie M. Hengesbach

2/13/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, February 13, 2023, through Friday, February 17, 2023

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will be Good to Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The week begins on a quiet note with dry conditions Monday into Tuesday, then a more active pattern develops. By Tuesday, northerly winds turn southerly ahead of an approaching storm system. The change in direction increases both temperatures and moisture. Associated precipitation holds off until later Tuesday and precipitation should generally be in the form of rain. Warmer temperatures linger Wednesday as the state becomes positioned between two systems. The next storm brings mixed precipitation Thursday. Models show conditions drying out Friday with only some lake effect snow lingering.

As for air quality, northerly winds Monday should keep fine particulate mostly Good. As southerly winds develop Tuesday and moisture moves into the region, levels increase to a mix of upper Good to middle Moderate. This range continues Wednesday into Thursday, but readings improve Friday as northerly winds move in behind the Thursday storm system.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show high pressure dominating during the weekend as temperatures warm back into the 40s. Breeze conditions are also expected, and it does not look like long range fine particulate will be a concern but with the Presidents Day holiday next Monday, we will do a forecast update Friday to detail levels through next Tuesday.

Next Forecast update: Friday, February 17, 2023

Stephanie M. Hengesbach

2/6/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, February 6th, 2023, through Monday, February 13th, 2023

PM-2.5:
24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good with occasional Low Moderate during mid-week.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

High pressure over the upper Midwest will slide eastward during Monday with Air Quality mostly Good.  In its wake, a cold front will advance with strong southerly winds and warming temperatures for late Monday night and early Tuesday.  That front is projected to pass through Michigan during the day Tuesday. 

 High pressure will return for the remainder of Tuesday and Wednesday.  The best chance for any Low Moderate conditions, during the forecast period, would likely be Wednesday with light southerly winds allowing a buildup of fine particulates.

 A stronger low pressure system invades the area during early Thursday providing a decent amount of mixed precipitation.  As that system exits the area late Thursday, winds will shift to the northwest and any residual fine particulates should be cleaned out returning the state to the Good category.

 Winds are expected to return to a southerly flow during Sunday and Monday.  Winds speeds are expected to be fairly brisk and should keep the atmosphere well mixed.  Most of the state is expected to have Good Air Quality but the occasional Low Moderate could sneak in.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to begin the next work week.

Next Forecast update: Monday, February 13th, 2023

01/30/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, January 30th, 2023, through Monday, February 6th, 2023

PM-2.5:
PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Recent snow brought the majority of Michigan back into the Winter season with colder temperatures than we have been accustomed to on the way as well.

The first half of the week will see on and off snow flurries with the majority staying to the west along the Lake Michigan shoreline. WNW winds will enhance these lake-effect snow showers which may reach more inland, depending on the strength of the wind. As we approach Wednesday, regional High-pressure sets up to our south which will lighten winds and potentially produce some breaks in the clouds to reveal some sunshine. As the week carries on past Wednesday, a cold front comes through which will drop temperatures into the teens for Friday and Saturday with the help of northerly winds bringing in colder air from up north. These winds shift to more southerly as we go into Sunday which will bring temperatures back into the low-30s for much of the region. These conditions carry into Monday to start off next week right where we leave off at the end of this forecast period.

For air quality, consistently light, shifting winds and a cold atmosphere will help keep inversions from lasting too long and trapping particulate matter near the surface. If an inversion does form, it will be short-lived, but the majority of particulates will be able to vertically disperse. Based on some particulate models, however, there appears to be a chance of regional particulate matter that may hang around for a few days but should not be any worse than Moderate concentrations. Wednesday looks to be the day with the highest potential for widespread Moderate concentrations due to the aforementioned High-pressure system causing stagnant conditions. With the help of the cold front coming through later this week, any build up will eventually dissipate.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Early next week shows another cold frontal passage which, again, will help clean out any PM-2.5 buildup. Air quality will remain Good heading into next week.

Next Forecast update: Monday, February 6th, 2023

01/23/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, January 23, 2023, through Monday, January 30, 2023

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will range mostly Good with only scattered Moderate readings through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Northern portions of the state may see some snow Monday into Tuesday, but a quiet start to the week is expected across the rest of the state. A more active pattern develops statewide by mid-week as a winter storm tracks from Texas to the Ohio Valley. Snow makes its way into Michigan Wednesday with highest accumulations in southeastern areas and less further northwest. This is the first of three storms that bring chances for snow through the forecast period. Current models show another system Friday into early Saturday and a third early next week. Cooler temperatures will be brought in behind each as highs trend cooler into the weekend.

As for air quality, mostly Good fine particulate is expected Monday and Tuesday aside from a scattered low-Moderate in southern locations. Good levels can be expected Wednesday into Thursday as gusty easterly winds develop ahead of the storm, switching to northwesterly as it pulls away. Weak high pressure building in late Thursday/early Friday could allow for some low-Moderate fine particulate Friday with weaker winds turning southwesterly; however, any build up will improve to Good Saturday as northerly winds develop behind the late week storm.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show another storm passing southeast of the state Sunday. If this system remains on track, fine particulate should remain generally Good through early next week.

Next Forecast update: Monday, January 30, 2023

1/17/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday, January 17, 2023, through Monday, January 23, 2023

PM-2.5:

24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good with occasional Low Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The forecast period begins with mild temperatures born on southerly winds in advance of an approaching low pressure system.  Air Quality is currently mostly Good with a scattering of Low Moderates.  As that low pressure system moves northeast, Tuesday evening, winds will shift to a more northwesterly direction.  Air Quality will become all Good, throughout the state, at that time. 

The next system is not far behind.  This stronger system will cause winds to shift to eastly by late Wednesday.  Winds will be brisk, and Air Quality is expected to remain Good.  The system will pass through Michigan late Thursday and strong northwest winds will settle in through Friday.

Winds will remain west to southwest for most of the weekend keeping temperatures cooler and Air Quality Good.

 The models are showing the potential for another low pressure system tracking up through the Ohio Valley late in the weekend.  If that prediction happens, we will see the same progression of easterly winds followed by northwesterly winds late Sunday into Monday.  Air Quality should remain Good.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to begin the next work week.

Next Forecast update: Monday January 23rd, 2023

1/09/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday January 9th, 2023, through Monday January 16th, 2023

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to Moderate. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Some parts of Michigan are starting off the week to the ever-evading sun shining through evergreen branches and leaf-less trees. Unfortunately, this is short-lived as clouds return for much of the region tomorrow and last throughout the forecast period. To start off the week, surface temperatures range from the low-30s to the low-40s across Michigan with light winds hanging around the 5-10 mph range. As we approach Thursday, a Low-pressure system and associated cold front comes through and brings precipitation with it. With surface temperatures scattered across the state, the precipitation will be mixed with rain more so in the south and snow the more north you go. This frontal boundary also increases the winds into the weekend, but quickly calms down Sunday as High-pressure drifts in from the north and south and lasts essentially into next week.

In terms of air quality, with the slight increase in temperature, morning hour inversions will be in place for much of the week until the frontal boundary comes through Thursday into Friday. With the morning hour inversions, PM2.5 concentrations will increase as fine particulates become trapped under the inversion and not able to vertically disperse. These concentrations should decrease as each day carries on but will still more than likely hang around the Moderate range for the better half of the week, with some areas seeing concentrations in the middle-high Moderate range. As mentioned above, when the front passes through and the help of WNW winds, PM concentrations will be cleaned out and kept at bay as long as the wind stays steady.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

There appears to be a slight warmup as we start off next week, with southern Michigan returning to the low-40s. Overall, air quality will remain in the Good to Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Monday January 16th, 2023

1/3/2023 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday, January 3, 2023, through Monday, January 9, 2023

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will range between Good and Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Weather systems over the region keep cloudy conditions through Thursday. Mild temperatures until midweek allows associated precipitation to be in the form of rain south. Cooler temperatures filter in late Wednesday into Thursday changing rain to snow. Accumulating snow is expected further north, however, little to no accumulation will be seen across central and southern Michigan. Weak high pressure slides in for a short time Friday before another system tracking across the Ohio River Valley brings light precipitation across southern portions of the state Saturday. Behind this system, high pressure settles in from the northwest producing dry conditions.

As for air quality, increased surface moisture helps keep fine particulate in the middle Good to middle Moderate range through Thursday. Winds switch to a northwesterly direction Friday improving air quality to more widespread Good readings. Weak winds Saturday may allow for increases of fine particulate to the Moderate range further south, but northeasterly winds developing late Saturday into Sunday should improve any buildup. Fine particulate late in the week will range from Good to low Moderate.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show high pressure dominating early next week. Weaker winds by Monday could allow for increases in fine particulate, but levels higher than Moderate are not expected.

Next Forecast update: Monday, January 9, 2023

12/27/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday, December 27, 2022, through Tuesday, January 3, 2023

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be Moderate through most of the work week then mostly Good through the holiday weekend.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

After a period of persistent cold weather and ample snow, especially along the West Michigan corridor, we should see a period of thawing temperatures during the current work week and holiday weekend.  While we may see a few breaks in the clouds during Wednesday, it does look like the majority of the forecast period will remain cloudy.  It is likely that by the end of December, most of lower Michigan will have only seen around 10% of potential sunlight for the month.

Wednesday should provide the first above-freezing temperatures, following the current cold snap, courtesy of winds shifting to the south and southwest.  By the end of the week, we should see temperatures around 40 degrees.   While this will likely be welcomed to help melt snow off the back roads, warmer air over snow typically is a good catalyst for producing fine particulates.  Even though a good breeze will help stir things around, I still see the likelihood of Low Moderates in the majority of the Lower Peninsula.

A cold front is expected to pass during Friday, which will give us a wind shift and cleaner air, although temperatures are expected to stay above freezing for the remainder of this forecast period.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to begin the next work week.

Next Forecast update: Tuesday, January 3, 2023

12/19/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, December 19, 2022, through Tuesday, December 27, 2022

PM-2.5: PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to range from Good to Moderate. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Tis the Monday before Christmas, and Michigan may be in for a treat later this week. There is growing confidence of impactful snow for the Great Lakes region just days before the Christmas holiday.

To start off the week, however, relatively quiet weather is in store for Michigan as a High-pressure system is influencing the region with light winds and stable atmospheric conditions. This system will give way to a rather weak Low-pressure system to our north Tuesday into Wednesday. Northern Michigan may be more impacted by this system with potential snow showers, but southern Michigan will only feel a drop in temperatures as the frontal boundary traverses through the region. Things become more interesting as we approach the latter half of the week with the potential of a winter storm impacting the Great Lakes region. Model guidance is still being fine-tuned, but confidence is growing for impactful snow and blustery conditions Thursday evening through Saturday. Position and strength of the Low-pressure system will determine the exact amount and location of snowfall, with windy conditions becoming more likely. Due to this system, travel plans will be disrupted and need to be planned accordingly.

After the system passes and the Christmas holiday approaches, temperatures will be nearing the coldest of the season thus far with high temperatures only peaking in the teens in most areas. The strong winds throughout the weekend will drop wind chills to the single digits and even into the below-zero range. Temperatures look to rebound into the mid-20s on Monday with quiet weather returning to start next week with High-pressure in place to our south.

In terms of air quality, in the beginning half of the week, due to the stable conditions, atmospheric inversions are expected for the morning hours and may last into the afternoon. This will allow for PM-2.5 concentrations to rise into the Moderate range for a couple hours before dropping back down to Good, as winds slowly increase throughout each day. Tuesday looks to be the day with the highest potential of PM-2.5 concentrations reaching the Moderate range. The passage of the cold front Tuesday into Wednesday, however, will help to clean out any concentration buildup. As stated above, an increase in winds associated with the system later this week will keep particulate concentrations low and Good through the weekend.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Breezy conditions last through the beginning of next week, which will help keep overall air quality Good.

Next Forecast update: Tuesday, December 27, 2022

12/12/2022 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, December 12, 2022, through Monday, December 19, 2022

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate will range from Good to Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Weather conditions will be relatively quiet early this week with surface high pressure positioned well north of the region. This does not last, however, as a more active pattern develops by mid-week. Before then, lighter easterly winds should keep fine particulate at bay. Pollution readings ranging from upper Good to low Moderate through Tuesday are expected. Winds turn a bit more southeasterly and moisture increases bringing in chances for precipitation Wednesday. Temperature ranges across the state bring with it ranges of precipitation types; anticipate mostly rain across the south and snow further north. Wind speeds increase as the storm system develops which should keep fine particulate from increasing much past upper Good.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show cold conditions for the week prior to Christmas and there also looks to be a few possibilities for snow showers. Pollution levels into next week should stay consistent in the upper Good to low Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Monday, December 19, 2022