02/28/2025 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday February 28th 2025 through Monday March 3rd 2025

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

We round off the month of February with a melting snowpack in southern Michigan, and winter weather in northern Michigan and throughout the upper peninsula. A relatively strong Low-pressure system is traversing the state as one reads this forecast with winter storm warnings and winter weather advisories impacting northern Michigan. Accompanying these winter advisories and warnings are wind advisories peppering the Great Lakes state as the aforementioned Low-pressure system tightens the pressure gradient in the state, thus creating windy conditions throughout this afternoon. This system will be off to the east come Saturday morning leaving a fresh snowpack to those in the north, and light winds and cold temperatures for all Michiganders. In the wake of the Low-pressure system, winds shift to more northwesterly flow which will bring arctic air back into Michigan for Saturday and into Sunday. Although cold, the arctic airmass will be relatively stable and quiet, with no additional snow or wind for the remainder of the weekend. Come Sunday afternoon, the majority of Michiganders reach the freezing mark with an upward trajectory of temperatures on the horizon for the week ahead.

Windy and cold conditions will help keep PM-2.5 concentrations at bay for the weekend ahead with clean, northerly winds aiding that as well. We should not see an increase in PM-2.5 concentrations until early next week when temperatures increase into the 40s.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Similar to this week, we see an increase in temperatures early next week with the upper-40s returning. Overall air quality should remain in the Good range.

Next Forecast update: Monday February March 3rd 2025

02/24/2025 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday February 24th, 2025 through Friday February 28th, 2025

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Mostly sunny skies and above normal temperatures kick off this last week of February. Southerly flow for the next few days will bring in warmer air as the windy conditions we have been seeing the last few days slowly calms as we approach midweek. Much of Monday and into Tuesday are copy and paste of one another with the next weather system approaching the region come Wednesday. A Low-pressure system enters the Great Lakes region early Wednesday and lingers for most of the day until moving off to the east on Thursday. This system will bring precipitation in the form of rain for most areas as surface temperatures will still be in the upper-30s to low-40s. Areas to the north may see a wintry mix, but overall precipitation should be rain. Along with precipitation, temperatures drop back down to seasonal norms in the mid-30s come Thursday and Friday with a High-pressure system setting up to our north.

With a rather dense snowpack across the state and consistent 40-degree temperatures for much of this week, PM-2.5 concentrations increasing into the Moderate range should be expected, especially in more populated areas near and around the morning commute. Breezy conditions today, Monday, and into tomorrow, Tuesday will help keep concentrations at bay as atmospheric conditions will not be stagnant. However, as snow melts and releases particulates into the atmosphere, concentrations will increase. As stated above, though, increases should not be higher than the mid-Moderate range. Once the Low-pressure sweeps through the region later this week, any buildup of concentrations that occur are expected to be cleaned out with shifting and increasing winds.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

We kick off March with relatively normal temperatures with even more melting of snow expected. PM-2.5 concentrations and overall air quality should range between Good and low-Moderate.

Next Forecast update: Friday February 28th, 2025

02/21/2025 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, February 21, 2025, through Monday, February 24, 2025

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to transition from mostly Good (AQI Green) early in the forecast period to Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) for the remainder of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Yesterday (Thursday) marked the “one-month-until-Spring” date.  With the unseasonably cold weather we have been experiencing of late, it brings hope of warmer weather and longer days to come.  In fact, depending on how you view it, Spring could come even sooner.  A recent conversation with my work colleagues brought up the topic of different definitions of Spring. 

The traditional Spring season, called Astronomical Spring, begins with the vernal equinox that will occur on March 20, 2025.  But meteorologists recognize March 1 as the first day of Meteorological Spring, which is based on annual temperature cycles and the Gregorian calendar.  While it will not make anything warmer, it feels good to think one definition of Spring will occur one week from tomorrow (Saturday).

In fact, we will begin a warming period, starting this weekend.  Sunday should be the first day that most of Michigan Lower Peninsula heads north of the freezing mark.  The warming cycle continues into the first half of next week with temperatures reaching into the 40’s. 

With the warming temperatures comes the snow melt.  The added moisture to the atmosphere acts as a catalyst for the growth of fine particulates.  As such, the Good Air Quality, experienced during the recent cold snap, will give way to Low Moderate Air Quality conditions.  This cycle will likely persist through most of next week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to be mostly Low Moderate going into the next week.

02/18/2025 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday, February 18, 2025, through Friday, February 21, 2025

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be a mix of mostly Good (AQI Green) to Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) for the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Many areas did not see the snow that was predicted for the weekend.  In Lansing, we were predicted to have 9 inches and wound up with less than 2 inches.  While I am sure some were disappointed at the lack of additional snow, I was not among that group. 

With cloud cover dissipating under high pressure, very cold temperatures have again descended upon us with what has been called Polar Vortex v2.0.  If you think January and February have been unusually cold, you are not wrong.  Being the numbers geek that I am, I looked at the departure from normal, average temperatures since January 1.  If the summed daily average temperature deviations were zero, then we would be exactly normal.  If that summed number is negative, then we are colder than normal, and if that number is positive, then we are warmer than normal.  For Grand Rapids, the summed deviations from average temperatures was -114 while Detroit was -104. So, yes, we’ve been much colder than normal.

Fortunately, this week looks to be relatively quiet. The models are not predicting any major snow events other than a small disturbance around the Wednesday night to Thursday morning time frame with less than an inch predicted.  The western lake shore counties, however, will continue to see some lake effect through Thursday.

High pressure settles in for the end of the week with clearing skies and a slow rebound in temperatures.  High temperatures finally getting north of the freezing mark are expected by Sunday and continuing into next week.

 Air Quality should remain Good for most of the forecast period although we could see some creep into Low Moderates by the end of the week with the slowly warming temperatures.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to be mostly Good to Low Moderate going into the weekend.

02/10/2025 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday February 10th, 2025, through Friday February 14th, 2025

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Sporadic sunshine is waking Michiganders up this February morning as surface temperatures hang around the teens to low twenties this morning and for much of today, Monday. We start off this work week relatively quiet with no major systems impacting us today or tomorrow, Tuesday, but an abrupt change is on the horizon with the next snowmaker coming on Wednesday. A Low-pressure system is expected to move across the Great Lakes region Wednesday evening into Thursday with most of the lower peninsula seeing accumulating snow. Southern Michigan and into mid-Michigan will see the highest totals with snow tapering off come Thursday morning. Once the Low-pressure leaves the area, a High-pressure system sets up to the south over Indiana and Ohio which will provide calm conditions on Friday to wrap up the work week.

Clearing skies and southerly flow will potentially increase PM-2.5 concentrations today and into Tuesday. These increases will predominately be in and around the metro areas of Detroit and Grand Rapids and mostly in the morning time. Come Wednesday evening, however, concentrations will be moved out as the impending Low-pressure and frontal boundary clean out the low-level atmosphere. The High-pressure system on Friday may cause an increase in PM-2.5 concentrations due to calm conditions and slight melting of the fresh snowpack we will be receiving from the aforementioned snow system. Any PM-2.5 increases will only slightly eclipse the Moderate threshold with most concentrations in the Good to low-Moderate range.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Another snow system looks to impact the Great Lakes on Saturday with snow totals still being calculated. Air quality will remain in the Good to low-Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Friday February 14th, 2025

02/07/2025 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday February 7th, 2025, through Monday February 10th, 2025

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Friday February 7th is here, and a good number of Michiganders woke up to clearing skies and a chilly sunrise this Friday morning. A High-pressure system currently sitting just to our southwest is providing this welcomed change of pace. This High-pressure system will slide to the east throughout the day and will keep the door open for another system, a Low-pressure, to move into the region Saturday morning. This system will provide a flurry of precipitation to the Great Lakes state throughout Saturday with multiple inches of snow expected north of the I-69 interstate. Areas south of I-69 will still see an inch or two, but mixed precipitation will cut down on those snow totals. The system tomorrow will be a quick mover as come Sunday, we are back under High-pressure and relatively calm conditions in terms of snow showers. Temperature-wise, with the encroaching Low-pressure and snow showers, winds will shift to more northwesterly flow which will cool down much of northern Michigan. Southern Michigan will be seasonably cool in the twenties with the upper peninsula even colder in the low teens to single digits come Sunday.

Ahead of the pressure system and frontal boundary moving across the state tomorrow, we will see light winds in the morning which may see an increase in PM-2.5 concentrations in more populated areas like Metro Detroit and Grand Rapids. Once the frontal boundary moves through, any concentrations will be cleaned out and with the aid of northwesterly winds, Sunday will see clean, Good air quality. Monday looks to be a continuation of Sunday with light winds and slightly more westerly flow, as temperatures hang around the teens to low twenties.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Next week looks to have northerly flow to start off the week, so air quality is looking to remain in the Good range.

Next Forecast update: Monday February 10th, 2025

02/03/2025 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday February 3rd, 2025, through Friday February 7th, 2025

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The first week of February kicks off with a slew of weather across the Great Lakes state. For those in southern Michigan, they woke up to rather dense fog with numerous fog advisories across the state and surface temperatures nearing the mid-30s. These surface temperatures will eclipse the 40s later today, Monday. For those in northern Michigan, yet another clipper system is traversing across the state from west to east and will continue to drop snow throughout this Monday. The low-pressure system providing this snow will move off to the east later this evening and will cool down the rest of the state tomorrow, Tuesday. The entire state returns to early February norms for surface temperatures as we approach Wednesday with a high-pressure system entering the region. The high-pressure will usher in another system late Wednesday night into Thursday morning which will bring a wintry mix and freezing rain to southern Michigan and more snow for northern Michigan. As quickly the system enters the region is as quickly as it exits as come late Thursday, it is off to the east. Friday looks to have residual lake effect snow bands in the snow belts with temperatures hanging in the mid-to-upper 20s.

With the aforementioned fog in southern Michigan, PM-2.5 concentrations, across the board from Mt. Pleasant south, are well into the Moderate range. With above freezing temperatures also, this is causing snow melt to release particulates into the atmosphere and increasing PM-2.5 concentrations. There is a relatively strong surface inversion as well, trapping those PM-2.5 concentrations near the surface. Winds shift later this Monday afternoon which will help lower concentrations, especially for populated areas like Grand Rapids and metro Detroit. 24-hour average concentrations for those areas are expected to be in the Moderate range, but throughout the day there is expected improvement as air gets cleaned out. For the rest of the week, PM-2.5 concentrations will be in the Good to low-Moderate range as temperatures return to below freezing, eliminating additional snow melt. Also, for most of the week, we will have northerly winds which will help bring cooler, cleaner air to our state. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The weekend continues where the work week leaves off—in the 20s for surface highs and relatively light winds. Air quality will remain in the Good to low-Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Friday February 7th, 2025

01/31/2025 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, January 31, 2025, through Monday, February 3, 2025

 PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be a mix of Good (AQI Green) to Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) for the weekend forecast period.

 FORECAST DISCUSSION

 Friday will be an active weather day as a cold front drops down through the state.  Air Quality will start out mostly in the Low Moderate range and transition over to Good as cold, clean air filters in behind.  Temperatures will drop sharply behind the front with Friday overnight low temperatures back in the upper teens.

 High pressure will dominate most of Saturday with peeks of sun amongst broken clouds with temperatures only reaching the upper 20’s.  Air Quality should be mostly Good under this dome of clean air.

 A clipper system will move along the United States/Canada border, Saturday night, bringing another mixed bag of weather for Sunday.  While warmer temperatures will be drawn back into the state, the potential for 1-2 inches of snow exists for areas north of I-96 with rain to the south.  With the increased moisture in the air, Low Moderates will likely prevail for most of Sunday.

 That system should be clear of the area by late Sunday leaving us with a dry, calm day on Monday with temperatures in the mid-30’s and mostly Good Air Quality.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to be mostly Good going into the next work week.

Next forecast update:  Monday, February 3, 2025

01/27/2025 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Friday, January 24, 2025, through Monday, January 27, 2025

 PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will average Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) through early next week.

 FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, January 27, 2025, through Friday, January 31, 2025

 PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) for the forecast period with a slight chance of Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) at the end of the week.

 FORECAST DISCUSSION

 As we begin the new work week, Michigan is sandwiched between a deep low-pressure system near Hudson Bay and strong high-pressure system centered over the Texas/Oklahoma region.  The tight pressure gradient between those two system guarantee a windy day on Monday.  Wind gusts in the 40-45 mph range can be expected by Monday afternoon and evening.  The front associated with the low-pressure cell could provide some light snow, later in the day, which could be blown around by the strong winds and cause some travel issues.

 An Alberta Clipper is expected to drop down into Northern Michigan Tuesday evening.  Some light snow could accompany that system late Tuesday into Wednesday.

 By Thursday, winds switch to a southwesterly direction and should provide some slight warming under sunny skies.  This is probably the best chance to see some Low Moderates, although that probability appears to be low.

 A low-pressure system moves across the Ohio Valley Friday through Saturday with the track of this system giving us northeast winds going into the weekend.  The majority of precipitation should be to the south of us but some light precipitation in the southern tier counties is not out of the question.

 Air Quality should be mostly Good for the forecast period, although the brief warmup at the end of the week could trigger some scattered Low Moderates.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to be mostly Good going into the weekend.

Next forecast update:  Friday, January 31, 2025

01/24/2025 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Friday, January 24, 2025, through Monday, January 27, 2025

 PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will average Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) through early next week.

 FORECAST DISCUSSION:

 The bitterly cold air experienced earlier in the week has departed the region, being replaced by seasonable high temperatures ranging in the teens to 20s. This temperature range lingers through the weekend, but forecast maps show a warmup with temperatures close to or into the low 30s Monday and Tuesday of next week. Regarding precipitation, Friday begins the period with light snow tapering off as an upper-level trough moves out and high pressure slides east of the region. Some locations may even break out into sunshine during the day. A couple of clipper systems moving through between Saturday and early next week will keep snow chances in the forecast through the period.

 As for air quality, lighter winds Friday will cause low-Moderate fine particulate readings across the lower portion of the state. Readings elsewhere will remain Good. Southwest winds on Saturday change to the northwest from west to east behind the passing system. Low-Moderate fine particulate concentrations are likely in the southern portion of the state, while readings further north will average Good. Surface winds Sunday become westerly ahead of the early week storm system. This may allow for a few low Moderate readings in more urban locations, but most areas should average Good for fine particulate. Temperatures increase Monday towards the 30-degree range, which will likely cause an uptick in fine particulate; however, stronger winds will hamper significant increases. Concentrations on Monday are not expected to be higher than Moderate.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

 The extended weather models show a warmup in temperatures early next week with on-and-off systems moving through that will keep chances for snow in the forecast. Mostly Moderate air quality levels are expected in the extended period.

 Next Forecast update: Monday, January 27, 2025

01/21/2025 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday, January 21, 2025, through Friday, January 24, 2025

PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will average mostly Good (Green AQI) with the chance for scattered Moderate levels (Yellow AQI) past midweek.

 FORECAST DISCUSSION:

 Bitterly cold air has settled over the eastern half of the US. Closer to home, Tuesday morning temperatures are below zero in most locations with wind chills well below zero. Please use caution against the cold if time outside is necessary Tuesday or Wednesday. Along with the cold conditions, lake effect snow is also in the forecast. The highest accumulations will be confined to the most prone northwest to west wind flow areas. A clipper system traverses northwest to southeast through the state Wednesday into Thursday. This system keeps snow in the forecast; however, it will also start a moderating trend in the cold temperatures.

 As for air quality, the cold north/west wind flow will keep fine particulate in the Good range Tuesday. Winds change to a southwesterly direction Wednesday ahead of the next storm system but expect the cold temperatures and Good air quality to remain in place. Weaker northerly winds Thursday behind the clipper system become southerly Friday as a weekend system approaches. The week will end with a mix of Good to low Moderate fine particulate readings.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

 The extended weather models show a weekend system keeping snow in the forecast. A significant warmup isn’t expected, but temperatures will not be as cold as earlier in the week. Air quality levels should average mostly Good in the extended period.

 Next Forecast update: Friday, January 24, 2025

01/17/2025 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday January 17th, through Tuesday January 21st, 2025

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Michigan ends the week on a relatively warm note with numerous areas across the state reaching the mid-to-upper 30s on Friday with more southern areas still in the 30s come Saturday. This warmth will be on the heels of the coldest temperatures we have yet to see this winter, and in the past few winters. A Low-pressure system and associated cold front will traverse across the state on Saturday with frigid arctic air behind it causing a sharp cool down towards low-single digits and zero for surface high temperatures. Due to open water over the Great Lakes, frigid air and NNW winds, lake effect snow will be sporadic throughout the weekend in the lake effect snow belts. The cool down will commence in the upper peninsula Saturday evening and by Sunday evening the entire state will be engulfed by arctic air. Temperatures start to rebound on Tuesday when winds shift to a more southerly flow due to passing pressure systems.

With Friday reaching the mid-to-upper 30s in most areas, there will be slight melting of snow which in turn will release particulates into the atmosphere, thus increasing PM-2.5 concentrations for most areas. The increase in concentrations will be slight and predominantly in the low-Moderate range, otherwise PM-2.5 concentrations are looking to remain Good. With the northerly winds and cold temperatures on the way, cleaner air will be brought in with the arctic blast. Although it will be a great weekend to stay inside and remain warm, outdoor air quality will overwhelmingly be Good.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Temperatures rebound into the low-to-mid 20s mid-to-late next week with air quality remaining in the Good range.

Next Forecast update: Tuesday January 21st, 2025

01/13/2025 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, January 10, 2025, through Monday, January 13, 2025

OZONE:

The 2025 ozone season will begin on March 1st.

 PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to low-Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

We enter the middle of January with scattered winter weather advisories and a few winter storm warnings across the state due to expected lake effect snow today, Monday, and into Tuesday. A Low-pressure system will be moving towards the east over Lake Superior today which will initiate lake effect snow bands via west-northwesterly winds. These lake effect bands will intermittently impact snowbelt areas along with some inland areas in mid-Michigan. As we approach midweek, the aforementioned Low-pressure system is out of the Great Lakes region and a High-pressure system appears to set up over Lake Superior providing potential sunshine for the Great Lakes. Michigan will see rather calm conditions most of Wednesday and into Thursday before another system approaches Friday and into the weekend which may pose some snow totals for southern Michigan.

Air quality is looking to remain in the Good to low-Moderate range with more populated areas like Detroit and Grand Rapids seeing the bulk of Moderate concentrations. Morning commutes and potential atmospheric inversions will cause PM-2.5 concentrations to increase into the low-Moderate category, only for a few hours, however. With the numerous weather systems impacting Michigan this week, concentrations will be cleaned out about every other day.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The coldest air of the season will be brought into the Midwest this upcoming weekend by a cold front and the ever-looming Polar Vortex. Air quality will remain in the Good range.

Next Forecast Update: Friday, January 17, 2025

01/06/2025 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, January 6, 2025, through Friday, January 10, 2025

OZONE:

The 2025 ozone season will begin on March 1st.

 PM-2.5:

24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) for the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Unlike the current weather in the Ohio Valley and Mid-South States, the weather in Michigan has been fairly tranquil.  Cold, yes, but calm and mostly precipitation free. While the Ohio Valley region was besieged with rain, snow, and ice, Michigan actually saw some breaks in the clouds and peeks of sun. 

 This pattern looks to mostly continue through most of the current work week.  The Tuesday night through Wednesday time period does show a trough dropping down from Canada.  But that system does not look to be a big snow producer, maybe an inch or less, but the lake shore could see more.  Wednesday looks to be the coldest day of the week with temperatures struggling to reach the low 20’s.

 Another trough moves through Friday, however, not much moisture is available and snow potential should only be for a chance of snow showers.

 For those seeking a peek at the sun, Thursday looks to be the best chance for a mostly sunny day although we should see some breaks in the clouds on Monday and early Tuesday.

 As far as Air Quality, we have been running in the Good range since the beginning of the new year.  Northerly winds continuing for most of the week should keep it the same although the winds do look to shift to a more southerly direction by the end of the week.   That may begin a slow creep in particulates, but I will review and address that potential in the Friday forecast.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain Good to Low Moderate going into the next week.

Next Forecast Update: Friday, January 10, 2025

12/30/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, December 30, 2024, through Friday, January 3, 2025

OZONE:

November marks the end of the 2024 ozone season. The 2025 ozone season will begin on March 1st.

 PM-2.5:

24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will average mostly Good (Green AQI) with only scattered Moderate (Yellow AQI) levels through the period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

This forecast period starts with quiet conditions Monday as the storm system that brought a soaking rain on Sunday pulls east of the region. The next storm system is quickly approaching, however, and will be tracking through the Ohio River Valley later Tuesday, then off to the northeastern U.S. on Wednesday. As this system passes to our south, chances for snow move in as well. What will be most noticeable on the first day of 2025 will be the cold temperatures moving in on a strong northwesterly wind. You can expect the cold temperatures, along with lake effect snows, to linger into the beginning days of 2025.

As for air quality, levels are starting from a clean base with mostly Good readings across the state. With lighter winds Tuesday, fine particulate may increase into the low Moderate range at a few southern monitors. Past Tuesday, northwesterly winds will be in place across the region, and this flow will keep air quality readings in the Good range the rest of the week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show cold temperatures and lake effect snows lingering into the first weekend of 2025. If this forecast pans out, Good air quality will continue.

Next Forecast Update: Friday, January 3, 2025

12/27/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday December 27th, 2024, through Monday December 30th 2024

OZONE:

November marks the end of the 2024 ozone season. The 2025 ozone season will begin on March 1st.

 PM-2.5:

24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be a mix of Good (AQI Green) and Moderate (AQI Yellow) for the entire forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The last Friday of 2024 is here and all across Michigan we are seeing surface temperatures above normal for this time of year. The warming trend continues into tomorrow with much of the lower peninsula seeing the 50-degree mark tomorrow, Saturday. Areas in the upper peninsula will be more so in the upper-30s to low-40s range. Providing these unseasonably warm temperatures is a Low-pressure system which is making its way towards the Great Lakes from the southwest. This system will shift winds to a more southwesterly flow thus bringing in warmer air. Accompanying the Low-pressure system will be rain, which appears to be broad and scattered tomorrow with areas to the north seeing more rain than the south. Come Sunday, however, that trend flips with the southern portions of the state seeing more precipitation with the north remaining drier. We finally dry out on Monday while we’re in between pressure systems with calm conditions and mild surface temperatures.

Due to the warming surface temperatures this weekend, PM-2.5 concentrations can be expected to remain in the low-Moderate range for more populated areas. Areas to the north that may still have a hefty snowpack will see PM-2.5 concentrations increasing as well due to melting snow and the release of particulates into the atmosphere. Also, surface level inversions can be expected throughout the weekend, mainly in the morning hours, which will trap particulates near the surface. As each day carries on and wind picks up, although, these concentrations will dissipate. Also, the aforementioned rain we will see this weekend will help keep concentrations at bay by cleaning and washing out the atmosphere.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

The current trend of mild temperatures and wet conditions appears to continue into next week as we bring in the New Year. Air quality is expected to range from the Good to low-Moderate category.

Next Forecast Update: Friday December 27th, 2024

12/23/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday December 23rd through Friday December 27th, 2024

OZONE:

November marks the end of the 2024 ozone season. The 2025 ozone season will begin on March 1st.

 PM-2.5:

24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be a mix of Good (AQI Green) and Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) for the entire forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

We kick off the last full week of December with a clipper system impacting the state with multiple forms of precipitation. As the system moves through today, Monday, a sharp temperature gradient will move through as well providing ample snow amounts to the north and mixed precipitation in mid-Michigan and south. The overall system will traverse the state rather quickly, and only really impacting the state through Monday evening. As we wake up on Tuesday, Christmas Eve, clear skies will be overhead due to a High-pressure system moving in from the west. Tuesday also marks the start of warm up Michigan will see throughout this upcoming week with the weekend being the peak with some areas making a run at the 50s. Before we get to the weekend, however, Christmas Day will be rather quiet with only the very southern portions of the state potentially seeing a few rain showers. With the increase in temperatures throughout this week, winds will predominately be from the southern direction, hence why we see an increase in temperature. Come Thursday and Friday, both days are pretty similar with temperatures ranging from the mid-30s to upper-40s.

For air quality this week, we start off in the Good range for much of the state this Monday morning. As the week carries on and weather patterns change, Moderate conditions should be expected due to southerly winds, and an increase in temperature along with snow melt from said increase in temperature. Melting snow releases particulates into the air that were trapped in between snowflakes or any other frozen precipitation. So as the snow melts those particulates are re-released into the atmosphere in the form of PM-2.5. Also, with much of the state seeing an existing snowpack, once the temperatures increase later this week, low-level atmospheric inversions will more than likely form which will trap particulates near the surface. This will especially be true for more populated areas like Grand Rapids and Detroit. Overall, PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good to Moderate range with concentrations improving each day as wind picks up and allows for particulates to disperse into the atmosphere.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

As mentioned above, we will the 50-degree mark return to the state this weekend. PM-2.5 concentrations will continue to range from the Good to Moderate category.

Next Forecast Update: Friday December 27th, 2024

12/20/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, December 20, 2024, through Monday, December 23, 2024

OZONE:

November marks the end of the 2024 ozone season. The 2025 ozone season will begin on March 1st.

 PM-2.5:

24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be a mix of Good (AQI Green) and Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) for the entire forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The Friday morning surprise was waking up to 5-6” of fresh snow in mid-Michigan.  Since the long-range forecasts are showing few chances for significant weather events between now and Christmas, will the snow pack linger through Christmas?  Although I expect to see some sun during the weekend, temperatures will fall with daily highs in the 20’s preserving the snow.  Temperatures look to rebound, early next week, with daily highs in the 30’s which will force some melting.  Hopefully, some snow will still be on the ground, Christmas morning.

 Winter solstice occurs at 4:21AM, Saturday morning, for the shortest day of the year.  Although daylight hours increase during the winter months, temperatures will likely continue to fall.  This is because it takes time for the Earth, particularly its oceans, to change temperature, an effect known as seasonal lag.  So colder days are probably coming, but I will take the longer days as a win.

 In terms of Air Quality, we are enjoying Good AQI conditions.  The northerly winds we will experience this weekend should keep Air Quality in the Good range.  The warmup and melting snow, next week, could push fine particulates in the Low Moderate range but I am not expecting any worse.

 For those traveling during the weekend and early next week, no major disruptions look to be predicted.  A weakening shortwave aloft may produce some light precipitation during Monday, before it washes out, but nothing major is expected.  Too soon to tell, with any confidence, about any weather issues post-Christmas.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain Good to Low Moderate going into the next week.

Next Forecast Update: Monday, December 23, 2024

12/17/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, December 16, 2024, through Friday, December 20, 2024

OZONE:

November marks the end of the 2024 ozone season. The 2025 ozone season will begin on March 1st.

 PM-2.5:

24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be a mix of Good (AQI Green) and Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) for the entire forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

As the shortest days of the year descend upon us, what little potential sum we could see will continue to elude Michigan.  While skies will continue to be gray and gloomy, I do not see any major winter systems impacting the state during the work week.  That said, weather will remain somewhat unsettled through the week as a series of low pressure shortwaves track across the northern U.S. 

 Monday will likely be the warmest day of the forecast period with temperatures reaching as high as the upper 40’s.  On Wednesday there may be some light snow accumulation ranging between a dusting and a couple inches of snow.  There is a higher potential for minor impacts from some accumulating snow late Thursday into Friday as a more developed system tracks through the region followed by colder weekend weather and more lake-effect snow potential.

 While the current weather can be classified as “blah”, Air Quality will be generally Good with some Low Moderates persisting, especially in the southern portion of the state.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain Good to Low Moderate going into the weekend.

Next Forecast Update: Friday, December 20th, 2024

12/13/2024 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, December 13, 2024, through Monday, December 16, 2024

OZONE:

November marks the end of the 2024 ozone season. The 2025 ozone season will begin on March 1st.

 PM-2.5:

PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will average between Good (Green AQI) and Moderate (Yellow AQI).

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The forecast period starts with quiet conditions Friday as high pressure moves overhead. High pressure will change the wind flow, finally ending lake effect snow showers that have been prevalent for a few days now. Cold air is in place and clearing skies Friday night allow for overnight lows to dip close to or below zero in many locations, especially further north. On Saturday, the high slides east of the Great Lakes region, and southerly winds develop ahead of the next weather system. This system tracks through the state Saturday night into Sunday, and precipitation may start as a mix before temperatures warm enough for the precipitation to be primarily rain. Yet another system drops in from Canada early next week, which will keep precipitation in the forecast.

 As for air quality, clean air has filtered into the region this week, so expect primarily Good daily fine particulate averages on Friday, aside from a few low Moderate readings in the more urban areas of the state. As southerly winds bring increased moisture and warmer air into the region, we anticipate fine particulate readings to increase. Fine particulate readings for Saturday through early next week will average from upper Good to mid Moderate.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show high pressure returning, along with cooler conditions behind the Monday system. If this forecast pans out, a return to Good air quality can be expected.

Next Forecast Update: Monday December 16th, 2024