06/06/2026 Air Quality Forecast Post

FORECAST SUMMARY: Saturday, June 6, 2026 through Monday, June 8, 2026

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are expected to be a mix of Good(AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow) for the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be Good(AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow) through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Friday afternoon and overnight rains were a welcome relief to the drier weather of the previous couple of weeks.  While those rains did provide some cleanout of the dirty air from Thursday, there was still some concern for Saturday as the cloud cover eventually clears.  The models are indicating potential issues in the very southwest tip of the state.   However, lingering cloud cover and showers appear to last long enough before winds shift to the cleaner directions of west and northwest.  As such, we will be keeping the lakeshore area Moderate but will keep an eye for any unexpected surges of ozone.

Sunday will be under a northerly wind regime and should not present any Air Quality issues.  Winds veer from northerly to south-easterly during Monday.  While some downwind stations of Detroit, such as Flint, may see a creep in ozone, there is no indication, at this time, of widespread USG.

True summer weather is in store for next week with 90-degree weather and potential Air Quality issues.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to be Good to Moderate to begin the upcoming work week with the potential for deteriorating Air Quality by Thursday.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Saturday, June 6, 2026

06/05/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, June 5, 2026 through Saturday, June 6, 2026

 Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are expected to be a mix of Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow) for the forecast period.

 PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow) through the forecast period.

  FORECAST DISCUSSION

Despite a clean background for most of the week, Thursday’s Air Quality was a rocky road with the majority of the state’s monitors unexpectedly crossing into the USG range.  Seeing the numbers climbing early in the day, ADQ did upgrade the forecast along the western lakeshore and Detroit area to USG although it was too late to issue an effective Action Day Alert.

Fortunately, that was a one-day event as clouds and showers move in along the lakeshore Friday morning and slowly expand eastward through the day.  Severe weather does not look to be an issue, but potential rainfall amounts could reach an inch or better in some areas. 

 That said, the predicted rain stops late Saturday morning, and clouds clear out in Southwest Michigan for the afternoon.  It is unsure how much of a clean out we will get from the rain and a gradual wind shift from west to northwest, so I tend to review the conditions Saturday morning and update the forecast, at that time.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to be Good to Moderate for the remainder of the weekend.

06/01/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, June 1, 2026 through Friday, June 5, 2026

 Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are expected to be Good (AQI Green) early in the week transitioning to Moderate (AQI Yellow) for the remainder of the forecast period.

 PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) to Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) throughout the forecast period.

  FORECAST DISCUSSION

 Despite being under some of the strongest solar radiation of the year as we enter meteorological summer, our Air Quality has been remarkably Good.  This can be attributed to several factors such as wind blowing in from clean regions, cooler temperatures, and low humidity. 

 Those dynamics should remain in play through mid-week, at least.  Beginning Thursday, the large semi-stationary high-pressure ridge which has been responsible for our great weather for the past two weeks will finally migrate east and our wind pattern will shift to a more southern component.  That means we can expect a modest rise in surface temperatures and humidity, although the air will still be relatively dry for this time of year.  With that shift, we can expect a slow creep upwards in ozone concentrations although with the clean background, I am not expecting any immediate widespread excursions into USG territory. 

 For Fine Particulates, a check of Canadian wildfires and observed smoke is showing relatively low activity for this time of year.  Crossing fingers and hoping that trend continues although drier conditions are expected.

 I will tempt fate by writing this forecast through Friday.  However, I will be closely checking end-of-week conditions and will upgrade this forecast, as necessary.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to be Moderate entering the weekend as temperatures and humidity continue to increase.

 Next forecast update: Friday, June 5, 2026

05/29/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday May 29th, 2026, through Monday June 1st, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Meteorological summer is on the horizon as June 1st kicks off the next work week. With the change in seasons approaching, Mother Nature has flipped a switch over the Great Lakes, going from wet and cooler conditions to warm and clear skies in a matter of weeks. An omega block pattern has set up in the Midwest which has High-pressure influencing our weather for the better part of a week or longer. Sunshine and even more sunshine is expected over the coming days to potentially a week and a half due to this atmospheric set up. Going more in depth, an omega block is when a High-pressure system sets up with two Low-pressure systems on either side of the High. This forces the jet stream to form a shape that looks like the Greek letter ‘omega’, hence the name omega block. This then forces weather systems around the High-pressure, providing clear conditions for those under the High. Once a system like this forms, it typically hangs around for multiple days or even weeks. This is the reason for clear skies, light winds and temperatures in the 70s across Michigan this upcoming weekend and into next week.

For air quality, with the current weather regime in place, wind direction will predominantly be northwesterly to northeasterly this weekend which will provide cleaner air. However, since we will be in the same airmass for numerous days, pollutant buildup may occur so our eyes will be watching both PM2.5 and Ozone concentrations this weekend and into next week. As of now, PM2.5 and Ozone concentrations are expected to remain in the Good to Moderate range, but if any conditions warrant an update to this forecast, an update will be made.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Clear skies and warm temperatures remain throughout the next week. Air quality will be in the Good to Moderate range to start, but with temperatures increasing mid-to-late next week, Ozone may become an issue.

Analysis of Ozone development on May 27th:

In total, six Ozone monitors exceeded the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG) range for an 8-hour average on Wednesday May 27th. Four of those monitors were in west Michigan (Cassopolis, Coloma, Kalamazoo and Jenison) with the remaining two in southeast Michigan (Ypsilanti and Tecumseh). Models and forecast guidance on Tuesday looking at Wednesday suggested a few hours exceeding the USG range, but overall 8-hour averages were expected to remain in the Moderate range. Also, northwest to northeast winds were expected to set up in the mid-afternoon which would inhibit additional Ozone production. However, looking at the atmospheric set up on Wednesday the 27th, for inland west Michigan, a budding theory could be that persistently light to minimal winds near the surface allowed for Ozone to develop under clear skies and an already dirty airmass from the day before with necessary precursors in place. Whereas the lakeshore monitors of Holland and Muskegon, both of which were Moderate, were impacted by a building northwest wind coming off the lake which helped to keep the air cleaner, therefore less Ozone development. For southeast Michigan, winds were already shifting to the east-northeast by early afternoon, so areas to the southwest of Detroit were impacted by Ozone more than metro Detroit monitors due to precursor drift along with high-level clouds over metro Detroit. This has been seen before but on rare occasions. With numerous variables that go into the Ozone photochemical reaction, there seems to often be additional factors at play to keep us forecasters on our toes.

Next Forecast update: Monday June 1st, 2026

05/26/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday May 26th, 2026, through Friday May 29th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Orange AQI), on an hourly basis, range.

PM2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The unofficial start of summer has come and gone, with beautiful weather on the horizon. Today, Tuesday, will be the warmest day of this week with the 70s and 80s ranging across Michigan. High-pressure is currently sitting to our south over Inidiana which is providing clear skies and light southerly winds. Throughout today, however, the pressure system will drift off to the east which will allow two separate systems to sandwich Michigan, with one to the north and the other to the south. As the front associated with the southern system moves closer, clouds will start to build in the southern half of the state this Tuesday afternoon. The front to the north, as it moves in, may cause pop-up showers come Wednesday afternoon and evening. Once both of the systems move out of the Midwest, High-pressure moves back in on Thursday, which will clear the skies once again with light northerly winds. More of the same on Friday with north-northeast winds with temperatures in the 70s across the state. Relatively quiet weather continues for the foreseeable future with Thursday and Friday being the starting point.

For air quality, PM2.5 looks to remain in the Good to low-Moderate range, especially once winds shift to more northerly flow. With Tuesday having southerly flow, low-Moderate PM2.5 concentrations can be expected, but once the fronts move through along with the wind shift, Good concentrations will prevail. Ozone has been creeping up in the last day or so due to warming temperatures, southerly flow, and clearing skies. Ozone concentrations will be in the mid-to-high Moderate range today with some lakeshore areas potentially seeing hourly Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG) concentrations. These concentrations have been building in the current airmass since yesterday with two monitors, Muskegon and Holland, exceeding the USG range yesterday for an 8-hour average. With clouds looking to build this afternoon in the southern portion of the state, Ozone production should be cut off from the lack of sunlight needed for the Ozone photochemical reaction to occur. Although there may be hourly concentrations in the USG range, widespread 8-hour averages exceeding the USG range are not expected. As mentioned above, winds shift to more northerly flow tomorrow afternoon through the rest of the week, so cleaner air will help keep Ozone development at bay. However, air quality will be monitored daily due to a long-lasting airmass that will persist over the state for numerous days with High-pressure sitting over the Great Lakes.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

High pressure persists throughout the weekend with temperatures ranging in the 70s. Air quality will be monitored as we will be in the same airmass for multiple days.

Next Forecast update: Friday May 29th, 2026

05/22/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, May 22, 2026 - Tuesday, May 26, 2026

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations start the period in the Good (AQI Green) range. Moderate (AQI Yellow) is possible starting early next week.

PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations in the Good range Friday and Saturday, could increase into the Moderate Sunday through the end of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

High pressure will keep most of Friday dry and cool. As we head into the holiday weekend, an upper‑level system brings a few chances for rain. The best chance for showers arrives late Friday through Saturday as a couple of disturbances move through the region. Another weak system on Sunday may bring a few spotty showers or storms, but many areas will stay dry. For Memorial Day, high pressure returns, although a bit of afternoon instability could spark some isolated precipitation. Temperatures warm through the period: highs in the 60s on Friday rise into the 70s this weekend, reaching the 70s to low 80s early next week.

Air quality starts off in the Good category for both ozone and fine particulate levels. A cool easterly wind will help keep conditions Good through Saturday. By Sunday, winds weaken and shift to the west and southwest, and temperatures begin to rise. As we head into early next week, warmer weather is expected to contribute to increasing pollution levels. Moderate levels of ozone and fine particulates may develop as early as Sunday and could continue through Tuesday. While some locations will stay in the Good range, areas along the Lake Michigan shoreline and parts of southern Michigan are more likely to see Moderate air quality.

We do not expect fine particulate levels to rise above the Moderate range during this forecast period. It’s still too early to know exactly how high ozone levels may get, but based on current weather data, we do not anticipate ozone reaching higher than Moderate. We will continue to review forecast maps and pollution model guidance through the weekend. If conditions change and we believe an Air Quality Alert is needed for Monday or Tuesday, we will update the forecast accordingly.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Moderate air quality could persist at times through the extended period.

05/18/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, May 18, 2026 - Friday, May 22, 2026

 Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are expected to range between Good (AQI Green) and Moderate (AQI Yellow) through the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will start the period mostly Moderate, with levels improving towards Good around mid-week.

 FORECAST DISCUSSION:

 A warm front will lift into the Upper Peninsula today, Monday, bringing summer‑like conditions to much of Michigan. South of the front, warm southerly winds will help drive temperatures into the mid to upper 80s. On Tuesday, a cold front sliding in from the northwest will bring a gradual cooldown from northwest to southeast. Even so, parts of southern Michigan may still reach the mid‑80s before the cooler air arrives. With the warm, humid, and unstable airmass in place, showers and thunderstorms are likely both Monday and Tuesday. A few storms could become severe, so be sure you have reliable ways to receive weather alerts. Quieter weather returns by midweek as high pressure settles in from the west. Sunshine dominates Wednesday through Friday, with temperatures on a slow warming trend.

 Air quality will begin the period with mostly Moderate fine particulate levels across the state. As cooler northwest winds develop behind Tuesday’s cold front, particulate concentrations are expected to improve. Good concentrations are expected on Wednesday and Thursday before increases toward the low Moderate range return to southern Michigan on Friday.

 Over the weekend, four monitors in west Michigan reached the lower end of the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG) ozone category on Saturday. Since then, ozone levels have ranged from Good to Moderate statewide. While warm temperatures and southerly winds can promote ozone formation, increased cloud cover and periods of thunderstorms will help limit more significant development. A mix of Good and Moderate concentrations continue on Monday and Tuesday. Statewide Good levels are forecast for Wednesday and Thursday, with a return to low‑Moderate readings possible by Friday.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

A frontal boundary positioned south of Michigan this weekend may trigger showers and thunderstorms, mainly across the southern part of the state. During the extended period, air quality is expected to remain at or below the Moderate range.

 Next Forecast update: Friday, May 22, 2026

05/15/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, May 15, 2026 through Monday, May 18, 2026

 Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are expected to be Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow) throughout the forecast period.

 PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) to Scattered Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

The cooler weather of late will give way to summer like heat and humidity during the weekend which should continue through early next week.  Departing high pressure during Friday will change the wind

pattern to a southerly direction ushering in those increased temperatures and southern moisture.

We are watching these developments closely as those southerly wind directions, 80-degree temperatures and mid 60-degree dew points are approaching the ‘sweet spot’ for increased ozone.  Fortunately, there will be a flurry of regional frontal activity throughout the forecast period to keep the atmosphere well mixed.  Some storms expected along a warm front across northern Indiana Saturday afternoon could be strong to severe, but modeling indications are that they will likely remain to our south.  Sunday will be most likely be precipitation free with increasing temperatures and humidity triggering potentially strong to severe storms during Monday.

In terms of Air Quality, Fine Particulates do not appear to pose any issues as wildfire development is still at a minimum.  We could see some ozone creep, Saturday and Sunday, in areas subject to prolonged sunlight.  Models are indicating widespread Moderate concentrations and there appears to be little concern that we will see USG concentrations, although some areas could have a few hours of elevated ozone.  However, since conditions could be favorable, we will track developments during the weekend and update the ozone potential, if necessary.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to be Good to Moderate entering the upcoming work week before we see a cool down by mid-week.

 Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Friday, May 15, 2026

Next forecast update: Monday, May 18, 2026

05/11/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, May 11, 2026 through Friday, May 15, 2026

 Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) to scattered Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) throughout the forecast period.

 PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) throughout the forecast period.

  FORECAST DISCUSSION

 Cooler than average temperatures will persist during the early portion of the week but will succumb to warming temperatures by the end of the week.  One more really chilly night is on tap as a Canadian high-pressure cell remains in place with clear skies and light winds. There is a chance for frost/freeze conditions which could impact much of the state in rural areas.

 As the Canadian high-pressure system departs to the east, increasing clouds during Tuesday morning will signal the arrival of a fast-moving clipper system which is projected to bring showers in by afternoon and lasting into early Wednesday.

 High-pressure returns to the area on Thursday signaling the beginning of a warming period as winds return to a southerly component.  By the weekend, we should see temperatures in the upper 70’s to low 80’s with the chance of scattered showers.

 The cooler weather and favorable winds during most of the work week will keep Air Quality in the Good range.  The warmer weather expected by the end of the week should allow for a creep into the ozone Low Moderate range with Fine Particulates staying mostly in the Good range. 

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to be Good to Low Moderate entering the upcoming weekend. 

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, May 11, 2026

Next forecast update: Friday, May 15, 2026

05/08/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday May 8th, 2026, through Monday May 11th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The first full week of May has come and gone with below average temperatures, but drier conditions compared to recent weeks. The weekend ahead will see a continuation of the current weather regime with slightly warmer temperatures on Saturday for the lower peninsula. For the upper peninsula, a cold front will be making its way through the state this weekend, impacting northern areas first, so cooler temperatures are expected in those areas. With this cold front, winds will be mostly northerly in the upper peninsula, hence the cooler temperatures, while westerly winds will be over the lower peninsula, allowing for temperatures to reach the 60s. Into Sunday morning, the aforementioned front will cross over the entire state, shifting winds to predominantly northerly which will cool off all Michiganders. Pop up rain showers should be expected throughout Saturday afternoon as well with Sunday clear of any rain showers. Monday looks to be almost a copy and paste of Sunday with temperatures in the upper-40s to mid-50s and clear skies.

For air quality, Ozone continues to be a non-issue due to cooler temperatures. For fine particulate matter, northerly flow in the latter half of the weekend will clean out any residual Moderate concentrations that occur. Any Moderate concentration that pop ups will be in the low-Moderate range due to shifting winds, lack of localized wildfire smoke, and relatively clean air.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

A temperature increase is on the horizon starting mid-next week. Air quality looks to remain in the Good range for the majority of next week.

Next Forecast update: Monday, May 11th, 2026

05/01/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday May 4th, 2026, through Friday May 8th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

PM2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Spring Strikes Back! At least for today, Monday, as southerly flow brings in warmer air and mostly sunny skies. On the back end of this Star Wars Day is a cold front and associated Low-pressure system which will eclipse Michigan while cooling us down and initiating rain showers across the state. West-Northwest winds will dominate the weather regime with surface temperatures lingering in the low-to-mid 50s for the majority of the week. Mid-week is expected to be mostly dry with rain chances returning for the latter half of the work week on Friday, but as of now, rain will only impact southern portions of Michigan.

For air quality, Monday will be highest day for concentrations due to warmer temperatures and southerly flow. Both Ozone and PM2.5 will cross over into the Moderate range, mostly in the more populated areas of Detroit and Grand Rapids, but wind shifts this week, along with a decrease in temperatures, will bring air quality concentrations back into the Good range.

May the forecast be with you.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Slight temperature increases are on the horizon for the weekend ahead. Air quality will remain in the Good range.

Next Forecast update: Friday May 8th, 2026

04/24/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, April 24, 2026 through Monday, April 27, 2026

 Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are expected to be Good (AQI Green) to scattered Moderate (AQI Yellow) throughout the forecast period.

 PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) to scattered Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

 After a sneak peek into upcoming summer weather during the past few days, things will return to more seasonal conditions for the weekend.  Showers, and possible a thunderstorm, is the forecast for Friday as a cold front tracks across the state.  Potential precipitation amounts increase during the day as more moisture moves into the area with a potential up to 1.25 inches in the eastern half of the state.

 Following the cold front, the weekend looks pleasant and dry with temperatures in the upper 60’s with dew points in the 40’s.  A good weekend to get early Spring yard work done.  The next chance for rain comes from a low-pressure system moving our direction from the plains region.  Models indicate precipitation arriving Monday afternoon and evening with rainfall potential around 1.5 inches.

 The warmer weather of the past couple of days pushed ozone values into the High Moderate range. Following the Friday cold front, generally, Good Air Quality is expected throughout the state mixed with scattered Moderates. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to be mostly Good entering the upcoming work week. 

Next forecast update: Monday, April 27, 2026

04/20/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, April 20, 2026 through Friday, April 24, 2026

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are expected to be Good (AQI Green) throughout the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) to scattered Moderate (AQI Yellow) throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

After all the wet and stormy weather which has plagued most of April to this point, Michigan is in for a much quieter and tranquil week with a chance to begin drying out.  Monday did start out rather cold (i.e. multiple freeze warnings) but should rebound by mid-week.  Southwesterly flow returns on Tuesday and that will mark the beginning of milder and less dry air. 

The warmest temperatures should arrive by Wednesday with Thursday likely the warmest day of the week with temperatures in the mid-70’s.  Light northeasterly winds on Wednesday should keep Air Quality in the Good range but winds shifting more southerly by Thursday could result in scattered Moderate conditions.  Fortunately, with the heavy winter snowpack to our north, wildfires are yet to become a concern.  Only small, controlled fires are currently reported in the far western Provinces.

Mostly sunny skies during Wednesday and Thursday should provide a good opportunity for drying out and high river levels to begin dropping.  A weak cold front is projected to move through Michigan on Friday bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Generally, mostly Good Air Quality is expected throughout the state with only a chance of scattered Moderates during mid-week. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to continue to be mostly Good entering the upcoming weekend. 

 Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, April 20, 2026

04/17/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday April 17th, 2026, through Monday April 20th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

One of Michigan’s mottos, Water Wonderland, surely lived up to its name this week as numerous rounds of storms and rain showers impacted the entire state. In the north, warm temperatures are accelerating the melting of snow which is compounding the flooding risk along with the inches of rain we have all seen and walked in. Today, Friday, however, will see a slight break in precipitation as soon as the morning fog dissipates and gives way to clear skies Friday afternoon. Across the state, 60s and 70s will be felt with light southerly winds. Mother Nature looks to have one last push of rain for the week, though, with a Low-pressure system making its way through the state Friday evening through the day on Saturday. Persistent rain will be mostly overnight and into Saturday morning with more scattered rain showers in the afternoon. On the backside of this pressure system is a cold front which will drop our temperatures into the 30s and 40s for Sunday but clearing skies will be a nice consolation. Monday looks to continue this trend of dry conditions, but cooler temperatures.

Air quality will remain in the Good to low-Moderate range as rain and change in wind direction continue to persist throughout the weekend.

With warmer temperatures becoming more frequent, and summer on the horizon, increases in Ozone and wildfire season may warrant issuances of Air Quality Alerts. We will only be issuing Air Quality Alerts for Ozone, PM2.5, or both, going forward when we expect concentrations to reach or exceed the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups, Unhealthy, Very Unhealthy, or Hazardous Air Quality Index ranges. Within these Alerts, we will specify which pollutant the Alert is for, what Air Quality Index category is expected, and the timing and area that is being impacted. For more information on Air Quality Alerts, the Air Quality Index, and how to sign up for Alert notifications, click here.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Warmer temperatures return next week after a few days of cooler temperatures. Air quality will remain in the Good range.

Next Forecast update: Monday April 20th, 2026

04/13/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday April 13th, 2026, through Friday April 17th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The traditional idiom of “April showers bring May flowers” will be put to the test this week as numerous rounds of rain will impact the Great Lakes state. Flood watches and warnings are popping up around the state, mainly in the northern half due to snowmelt accompanying the heavy rainfall. The precipitation will be brought in through several systems crossing over the region this week along with a frontal boundary sitting over the state. In between raindrops, however, southerly flow will dominate the wind direction regime which will provide surface temperatures well into the 70s for the southern portion of the state while northern portions will hang around the upper-40s to 50s. Light to moderately breezy conditions will be felt throughout the week as the Low-pressure systems move in and out of the region.

For air quality this week, the rain showers along with consistent change in airmass will help to keep overall air quality Good with some increases into the Moderate range. Southerly flow typically brings increases of PM-2.5, but the rain will keep it limited to small increases in more populated areas like Detroit and Grand Rapids. Although winds will be predominantly southerly, persistent wind speeds will prevent stagnation so there is expected to be ample dispersion of particulates. Some southerly areas may make a run at 80-degrees tomorrow, Tuesday, so the potential return of Moderate Ozone may be on the horizon. That could be said throughout this week as well due to temperatures expected to remain in the 70s for southern areas. However, with the rain and persistent clouds, Ozone development will be inhibited due to the lack of sunlight needed to initiate the photochemical reaction. Areas near and around Detroit and Grand Rapids may see hourly concentrations increase just over the Moderate range but are not expected to persist.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

More of the same for the weekend ahead as warm temperatures and rain continue into the weekend. A cool down is on the docket for Sunday as a rather strong cold front moves through. Air quality is expected to remain in the Good range.

Next Forecast update: Friday April 17th, 2026

04/13/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday April 13th, 2026, through Friday April 17th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The traditional idiom of “April showers bring May flowers” will be put to the test this week as numerous rounds of rain will impact the Great Lakes state. Flood watches and warnings are popping up around the state, mainly in the northern half due to snowmelt accompanying the heavy rainfall. The precipitation will be brought in through several systems crossing over the region this week along with a frontal boundary sitting over the state. In between raindrops, however, southerly flow will dominate the wind direction regime which will provide surface temperatures well into the 70s for the southern portion of the state while northern portions will hang around the upper-40s to 50s. Light to moderately breezy conditions will be felt throughout the week as the Low-pressure systems move in and out of the region.

For air quality this week, the rain showers along with consistent change in airmass will help to keep overall air quality Good with some increases into the Moderate range. Southerly flow typically brings increases of PM-2.5, but the rain will keep it limited to small increases in more populated areas like Detroit and Grand Rapids. Although winds will be predominantly southerly, persistent wind speeds will prevent stagnation so there is expected to be ample dispersion of particulates. Some southerly areas may make a run at 80-degrees tomorrow, Tuesday, so the potential return of Moderate Ozone may be on the horizon. That could be said throughout this week as well due to temperatures expected to remain in the 70s for southern areas. However, with the rain and persistent clouds, Ozone development will be inhibited due to the lack of sunlight needed to initiate the photochemical reaction. Areas near and around Detroit and Grand Rapids may see hourly concentrations increase just over the Moderate range but are not expected to persist.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

More of the same for the weekend ahead as warm temperatures and rain continue into the weekend. A cool down is on the docket for Sunday as a rather strong cold front moves through. Air quality is expected to remain in the Good range.

Next Forecast update: Friday April 17th, 2026

04/10/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday April 10th, 2026, through Monday April 13th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Michiganders woke up to overcast skies, and rain showers in the southern portion of the state this Friday morning as a Low-pressure system moves across the Great Lakes. This system will make its way eastward this afternoon which will open the door for a High-pressure system to move in for Saturday. We will dry out during the day on Saturday with temperatures ranging in the 50s across the state with plenty of sunshine, thanks to the High-pressure. Unfortunately, though, this will be short lived as another system moves in Saturday night into Sunday which will bring more rain, but warmer temperatures. A warm front will provide precipitation along with southerly flow which will push temperatures into the 70s for the lower peninsula and the upper-50s to 60s for the upper peninsula. This warm front will keep winds in the southerly direction which will keep our temperatures in the 60s and 70s to start next week.

For air quality, low-Moderate PM-2.5 concentrations can be expected later today, Friday, and into Saturday as winds shift around from southeasterly to southwesterly. These concentrations are only expected in the southern portions of the lower peninsula, more specifically in the Detroit and Grand Rapids areas. Once the front moves in with the rain on Sunday, concentrations should decrease into the Good range.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Warmer temperatures hang around early next week with multiple rounds of rain. Air quality is expected to be in the Good range.

Next Forecast update: Monday April 13th, 2026

04/06/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday April 6th, 2026, through Friday April 10th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range later in the week.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

We start off the first full week of April with surface temperatures expected to be at or below normal today, Monday, due to persistent northerly flow. After a rather wet period in the latter half of last week and this past weekend, this week will see a decrease in precipitation for the majority of the week with Thursday and into Friday seeing the most amount of precipitation. First, however, a cold front crossed over Michigan in the overnight hours which shifted winds to northerly flow, as mentioned above. Going into Tuesday, High-pressure sets up over Wisconsin which will clear the skies and lighten the winds, while keeping us below average for surface temperatures. The warming trend starts on Wednesday as winds shift to southerly flow, bringing in warmer air, but will also present some precipitation for the northern half of the state. A wintry mix is expected throughout the day on Wednesday before turning to mostly rain on Thursday. This system will give way to Friday’s system which will impact the entire state with rain as temperature return to the 50s and 60s thanks to a warm front crossing over the state.

For air quality, northerly flow and cooler temperatures for the first half of the week will help to keep concentrations Good. As we get into the latter half of this work week, winds shifting to southerly flow may pose an increase of PM-2.5 into the low-Moderate range. However, rain showers on Thursday and Friday will keep any increases at bay. We typically start to see some Ozone increases in the month of April. This week does not look like it will be a week for Ozone as temperatures will still be too cool. Although, our eyes are now slowly starting to focus more on Ozone development as the temperatures warm.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The warming trend continues into the weekend as Good to low-Moderate air quality is expected.

Next Forecast update: Friday April 10th, 2026

04/03/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, April 3, 2026 through Monday, April 6, 2026

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are expected to be Good (AQI Green) throughout the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) throughout the forecast period.

A bit more noisy weather is expected, Friday tonight, as another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected from tonight into Saturday.  This is due to a warm front that will track back northward into the area bringing 60-degree temperatures for Saturday.  The possibility of a few stronger storms in Southern Lower Michigan exists from tonight into early Saturday afternoon.  Additional rainfall could be on the order of a half to one inch

Following the passage of an associated cold front late Saturday, weather turns colder as winter refuses to totally relent.  Temperature decreases may be just cold enough for a little bit of lake effect snow.  Highs will be in the low to mid 40s for the remainder of the weekend and into early next week.

 Temperatures should rebound by mid-week with chances for rain to return to the forecast. I am expecting temperature to reach the 50s for highs by mid-week, which is normal for this time of year.

 Winter is not over but Spring is building momentum.  On a positive note, Good Air Quality is expected throughout the state, and the trend should continue into next week. 

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to continue to be mostly Good entering the upcoming work week. 

03/30/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday March 30th, 2026, through Friday April 3rd, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Spring has sprung! Or at least for today, Monday, and tomorrow, Tuesday, as high temperatures are expected to approach 70 degrees in southern Michigan. The upper peninsula is hanging around seasonal norms for this time of the year due to a frontal boundary lingering in the Straits of Mackinac. This is causing warm air to be brought into southern Michigan via southerly flow, whereas the upper peninsula is under northerly flow, keeping their temperatures cooler. Our temperatures, statewide, homogenize come Wednesday however after the passing of a cold front on Tuesday which will bring ample amounts of rain, snow flurries, and temperatures nearing seasonal averages. This will be the first round of precipitation as more mixed precipitation is expected on Thursday with rain, freezing rain, and snow all expected throughout the day as another Low-pressure and front moves through the state. Once the system exits the state, Friday slowly becomes quieter in terms of precipitation, although there may be some breezy conditions as the pressure gradient in between systems balances out.

For air quality, the highest expected day for PM-2.5 concentrations this week will be today, Monday, and into Tuesday before the front and rain moves through. Today in southern Michigan there will be southerly flow which will help to increase fine particulate, along with lighter winds in the morning hours. Winds pick up slightly Monday afternoon which will keep any increases at bay, but low-to-mid Moderate concentrations should be expected for most of the day. Once the front and precipitation move through on Tuesday and early Wednesday morning, any substantial build up of PM-2.5 will be cleaned out as a change in airmass will bring cleaner air. The presence of multiple systems moving through this week along with change in wind direction will help keep air quality mostly Good for the week ahead.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The first weekend of April will see another system moving through with additional precipitation across the state. This will help keep air quality Good.

Next Forecast update: Friday April 3rd, 2026