09/11/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday September 11th, 2026, through Monday September 14th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range, with the potential of hourly Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Orange AQI) concentrations.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

High pressure is currently sitting over southeast Michigan providing lights winds and ample sunlight this Friday morning. This system will slowly move to the east as today carries on but clear skies and temperatures in the 70s should be expected throughout the day. Saturday looks to provide a slight warm up into the low-80s as a warm front just clips the southern portions of Michigan and turns the winds to a more southwesterly direction. This frontal boundary may pop-up scattered rain showers in the morning hours, but nothing to cancel plans over as they are expected to be light, if any produce. Later on, Saturday evening, the next frontal boundary, a cold front, will move across the state from the west, which will bring our temperatures back down to where they were on Friday with the exception of the upper peninsula which will see temperatures hanging around the 60s. With the cold front passing through, winds will shift to a north-northwesterly direction which will carry into Monday before shifting more to the east.

For air quality, southerly flow tomorrow will allow for PM2.5 concentrations to increase into the low-Moderate range. With the shifting winds on Sunday, especially from the north, cleaner air will be present allowing for PM2.5 concentrations to decrease into the Good range. Ozone, on the other hand, looks like it wants to increase tomorrow, Saturday, for portions of southwest Michigan. Today, Friday, looks like it may be what we call a “ramp-up day” where precursors of Ozone gather and weather conditions that are conducive to Ozone development start to come into place. On Saturday, with the shifting winds to the southwest, these ingredients in place may allow for Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG) concentrations of Ozone to develop in the southwest corner of Michigan along the Lake Michigan shoreline. The only kicker to this set up is the amount of clouds that produce in that corner of the state. Michigan will be between two systems tomorrow, one with the aforementioned warm front, the other with the cold front coming on Sunday. So, the potential of clouds will increase throughout the day on Saturday as both systems and fronts make their way east. As of now, it looks like southwest Michigan will see scattered to overcast skies for much of the morning, before clearing in the mid-to-late afternoon. It will be interesting to see how long the clouds last, if they produce, and how the duration of the clouds inhibits the development of Ozone. If the clouds last longer, the atmospheric reaction that produces Ozone will be delayed until more sunlight makes it to the surface. If there is a lack of clouds, then Ozone may produce quicker and sooner than expected. With these uncertainties in place, along with it being September and the sun angle along with sun intensity being lower, I am expecting the Ozone 8-hour average to be in the mid-high Moderate range on Saturday. As mentioned above though, USG concentrations for a few hours cannot be ruled out.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

A slight cool down is on the docket for next week with air quality in the Good range.

Next Forecast update: Monday September 14th, 2026

09/8/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday September 8th, 2026, through Friday September 11th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The first full week of September commenced with clear skies yesterday, Monday, with moderate temperatures in the 70s to low-80s. Today, Tuesday, will continue that trend for most of the state, however, northern portions, especially the upper peninsula, will see rain showers throughout the day. This rain will slowly move to southern portions of the state later today and into Wednesday. This is due to a low-pressure system well to our north in Canada but an associated cold front trekking through the Great Lakes, nonetheless. On the backside of the frontal boundary, Thursday, will see high-pressure across the region which will open the skies back up through Saturday, before another system moves through the Great Lakes.

For air quality, southwesterly flow Tuesday and into Wednesday may present Moderate air quality conditions, especially Tuesday for Ozone. However, as rain moves in, Ozone will dissipate back into the Good range. PM-2.5 concentrations may hang around the Moderate range a little longer through Wednesday before a wind shift on Thursday bringing in cleaner air through Friday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Although it is not a complete washout, rain looks like it will linger around this weekend as systems move through the region. This will help keep air quality in the Good range.

Next Forecast update: Friday September 11th, 2026

09/4/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, September 4, 2026 – Tuesday, September 8, 2026

Ozone: 8-hour average concentrations in the Good (Green AQI) through Sunday with an increase into Moderate (Yellow AQI) early next week.

PM-2.5: Concentrations will range from Good to low-Moderate through the period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

 A wet start to the holiday weekend is underway, with heavy rainfall tracking across the southern half of the Lower Peninsula and lighter, more scattered precipitation elsewhere. Conditions will gradually dry out later Friday into Saturday as the current storm system exits the region and high pressure settles to the northeast. High pressure will then dominate through Labor Day, bringing drier weather and lower humidity, resulting in noticeably more comfortable conditions compared to earlier in the week.

Elevated ozone concentrations were observed across the western Lower Peninsula on Wednesday. While the potential for increased levels had been highlighted in Monday’s forecast, ozone rose higher than typically expected for early September. Hot, muggy conditions were in place, accompanied by Moderate fine particulate levels. Although high humidity generally suppresses ozone formation, fine particulates were likely enhanced by wildfire smoke transported northward from southern states, contributing to the elevated readings.

The Friday weather system and subsequent high pressure should keep ozone levels mostly in the Good range through Sunday. As lighter southerly winds develop Monday into Tuesday, ozone may rise into the Moderate range, particularly across central and southern portions of the state.

Moderate fine particulate readings have been persistent across central and southern parts of the state this past week. Conditions are expected to improve Friday into the weekend as high pressure moves in, shifting winds to a northerly direction. Lingering humidity in southern areas may allow low‑Moderate levels to continue into Friday and early Saturday, but overall Good air quality is anticipated through Sunday. Southerly flow returning early next week may lead to another increase in fine particulate levels across the region. At this time, levels higher than low-Moderate are not expected.

Recent evaluations of wildfire activity in Canada show a noticeable decrease in both the number and intensity of fires from early August to the end of the month. This is encouraging news, but we continue to monitor conditions both in Canada and across the U.S. Smoke model guidance keeps smoke out of the region through this weekend.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

A developing southwesterly flow by Tuesday will bring warmer temperatures through both the surface and upper levels. This warming may allow air quality to reach the Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Tuesday, September 8, 2026

08/31/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, August 31, 2026 – Friday, September 4, 2026

Ozone: 8-hour average concentrations in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range are expected; a small chance for Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG, Orange AQI) exists in the west/southwest Tuesday and Wednesday.

PM-2.5: Concentrations will range from mostly Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Warm, humid weather will continue through mid‑week as a frontal system moves across the region. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are likely, but the timing of each round is uncertain. Any afternoon or early evening sunshine that breaks through the cloud cover could allow ozone levels to rise quickly. Some increases in fine particles are also possible throughout the period. A cold front is expected to move through Wednesday into Thursday. As cooler, cleaner air arrives from the northwest, air quality should improve.

The current weather pattern makes the ozone forecast a bit challenging. Michigan will remain under a warm airmass and a southerly wind flow through Wednesday, conditions that typically support ozone formation. However, frequent chances for showers, clouds, higher humidity, and the shorter daylight period this time of year should help limit how much ozone can develop. Forecast models indicate the potential for rising ozone levels in western and southwestern parts of the state on Tuesday and Wednesday. This could occur if clouds break apart and sunshine returns during the afternoon or early evening. As a result, Moderate ozone levels are being forecast in those areas. While not likely, a brief period of low‑end Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG) is possible if conditions align. Elsewhere across Michigan, ozone is expected to stay in the Good to low‑Moderate range.

Moderate fine particulate readings have been steady across central and southern parts of the state. Increased humidity and persistent southerly winds will likely keep concentrations in the upper Good to mid‑Moderate range through mid‑week. As winds shift to the northwest Thursday into Friday, cleaner air is expected to move in, helping levels improve back toward the Good range.

Recent evaluations of wildfire activity in Canada show a noticeable decrease in both the number and intensity of fires from early August to the end of the month. This is encouraging news, but we continue to monitor conditions closely—both in Canada and across the U.S. Smoke model guidance indicates light plumes drifting over the region at times this week. While impacts appear minimal, we will keep track of any changes that could affect air quality.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good in the extended period.

Next Forecast update: Friday, September 4, 2026

08/28/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, August 28, 2026 through Monday, August 31 2026

PM2.5: 24-hour average fine particulates are expected to be a mix of mostly Good (AQI Green) to scattered Moderate (AQI Yellow).

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are also expected to be a mix of mostly Good (AQI Green) to scattered Moderate (AQI Yellow).

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

As the end of August approaches and the new school year gets under way, one would expect fall temperatures to begin settling in.  However, summer isn’t quite ready to concede as we are looking at a significant warmup, early next week. 

As we get into southwest air flow during the weekend, warmer temperatures and higher dew points will begin filtering into the area.  Current projections have temperatures reaching near 90 degrees Monday through Thursday with the best chances on Tuesday.  Dew points in the high 60’s to near 70 will make it seem like the sweaty middle of summer.  As such, it is likely to see some creep in ozone and fine particulates.  The shorter days should help keep ozone concentrations in check, but I do expect increased chances for Moderate, early in the week.  Fortunately, I do not see any wildfire smoke in the mix, so we should not see numbers beyond Low Moderate.

For the weekend itself, high pressure centered over the region, Friday morning, supports a largely dry forecast. A weak mid-level low-pressure system will pass through the area later Friday bringing a very low chance for some pop-up, isolated showers.

There is a bit more potential in the Sunday night into Monday time frame, but current model projections have the best chances for any precipitation to be across northern lower Michigan,

As for Air Quality during the weekend, I expect ozone to remain mostly in the Good range with a mixture of Good to Moderate for fine particulates.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good to scattered Moderate through the upcoming weekend.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Friday, August 28, 2026

Next forecast update: Monday, August 31, 2026

08/24/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, August 24, 2026 through Friday, August 28, 2026

PM2.5: 24-hour average fine particulates are expected to be a mix of mostly Good (AQI Green) to scattered Moderate (AQI Yellow).

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are also expected to be a mix of mostly Good (AQI Green) to scattered Moderate (AQI Yellow).

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The new school year kicks off a generous amount of pleasant weather to get the kids settled into school.  Similar to last week, Air Quality should be mostly in the Good range for all pollutants.

 Monday morning starts off chilly, but mostly sunny with afternoon high temperatures in the mid-70’s and dew points in a comfortable mid-50’s.  Under a strong high-pressure cell, calm winds and cooler night time temperatures could lead to some significant fog Tuesday morning.

 The best chance for rain, this week, occurs Wednesday into Wednesday night as a warm front lifts across Lower Michigan under an upper air trough.  While severe weather is not indicated, scattered damaging wind gusts are not out of the question Wednesday afternoon and evening.  A few lingering afternoon pop-up showers and thunderstorms could occur on Thursday but most of the area should see sunny skies.

 Models indicate good confidence for slightly more humid and warmer weather Thursday into Friday with dropping dewpoints behind a Friday cold front. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good to scattered Moderate through the upcoming weekend.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, August 24, 2026

Next forecast update: Friday, August 28, 2026

08/21/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, August 21, 2026 through Monday, August 24, 2026

PM2.5: 24-hour average fine particulates are expected to be a mix of mostly Good (AQI Green) to scattered Moderate (AQI Yellow).

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are also expected to be a mix of mostly Good (AQI Green) to scattered Moderate (AQI Yellow).

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Friday starts out with high pressure still in control to our east and will affect our morning weather in Michigan before it departs eastward into the New England states later this afternoon.  We can expect afternoon temperatures to reach the lower 80’s with generally sunny skies, which will decrease by evening as clouds move in courtesy of an approaching cold front.

As clouds thicken overnight, I am expecting approaching precipitation to be somewhat widespread with a chance of some potential convective activity approaching from west to east.  The dynamics are not particularly impressive, so I am not expecting any convective activity to be severe.   Current model projections have been fairly consistent with a gradual west to east shift of precipitation, during Saturday, that should exit the area by evening.

Following the passage of the front, I expect Sunday will be under deep, almost due northerly flow with approaching surface high pressure.  Conditions will be comfortable with temperatures in the mid-70’s and dew points in the upper 50’s.

Air Quality through the weekend is expected to be mostly Good for both Ozone and Fine Particulates.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good to scattered Moderate to start the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Friday, August 21, 2026

Next forecast update: Monday, August 24, 2026

08/17/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday August 17th, 2026, through Friday August 21st, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The middle of August is upon us as schools start to open back up for students and summer slowly starts to transition into Fall. Before the change in seasons, however, summer temperatures will remain in place for the better half of this week. Low-80s to upper-70s will be felt across the state as a few rain chances make an appearance as well. Today, Monday, and tomorrow will have high-pressure dominating the weather regime as clear skies are expected for both days. Come midweek, a frontal boundary and low-pressure system will cross over the state on Wednesday providing rain showers, but not a complete washout. On the backside of this front is another High-pressure which will hang around for the remainder of the work week.

For air quality, Ozone does not look like it will pose a threat with cooler temperatures sprinkled in throughout this week. Also, the rain chances and shift in winds from the aforementioned front moving through on Wednesday will help clean out the atmosphere from any pollutant build up. PM2.5 looks like it will behave as well with Good to low-Moderate concentrations expected. Upper-level wildfire smoke may persist in the skies above this week, but it does look to be thinning out compared to recent weeks.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Another front moves through on Saturday bringing rain with it, but again, a washout is not expected. Air quality will remain in the Good to Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Friday August 21st, 2026

08/14/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, August 14, 2026 – Monday, August 17, 2026

Ozone: 8-hour average concentrations in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range are expected.

PM-2.5: Concentrations will range from Good to Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

An unsettled weekend is expected as a weather system moves through the state. Rain will begin to spread into central and southern areas as early as Friday night, where the highest chances for precipitation will occur. Farther north, rain and storm chances hold off until late Saturday, and coverage will be less widespread. High pressure will then build in to start the new work week, bringing cooler and less humid conditions.

Moderate fine particulate readings have been consistent this week in all but northern locations, and this trend is expected to continue through the weekend. A warm front lifting north and humid conditions in place keep Moderate levels in place both Saturday and Sunday. High pressure and northerly winds on Monday should improve fine particulate back to towards the Good range.

Smoke production remains low from the wildfires across Ontario and northern Minnesota. Additional fires continue farther west in the northwestern United States and farther north into Canada. While smoke from these fires persists across the region, it has generally remained aloft with only minor influence on surface concentrations.

Clouds and periodic precipitation on Saturday and Sunday will limit ozone formation. While southeastern areas may reach Moderate levels on Friday, most locations are expected to remain in the Good range.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The extended forecast begins on a dry note and no significant increases in pollution are anticipated.

Next Forecast update: Monday, August 17, 2026

08/10/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, August 10, 2026 – Friday, August 14, 2026

Ozone: 8-hour average concentrations in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range are expected.

PM-2.5: Concentrations will range from Good to Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A complex of showers and storms moved through southern Michigan early Monday morning and has since shifted east/southeast of the state. A frontal boundary positioned just south of the Michigan border will guide additional systems through the region, keeping on and off precipitation chances in the forecast for much of the week. The best potential for storms will be across southern areas Monday and Tuesday, with more widespread precipitation expected by Wednesday. Drier conditions are anticipated later in the week, though this break may be brief as another system could bring rain back into the forecast over the weekend.

Smoke production remains low from the wildfires across Ontario and northern Minnesota. Additional fires continue farther west in the northwestern United States and farther north into Canada. While smoke from these fires persists across the region, it has generally remained aloft with little influence on surface concentrations, and this trend is expected to continue through much of the week. With a boundary positioned close to the state, some Moderate fine particulate levels may be observed, particularly across southern areas. Overall, fine particulate concentrations this week will range from Good in the north to Moderate in the south. We continue to monitor wildfire activity and smoke plumes daily. Forecast updates will be issued if surface‑level smoke impacts become more likely across the state.

Clouds and periodic precipitation through mid‑week should limit ozone formation. While a few locations may reach Moderate levels, most areas are expected to remain in the Good range through Wednesday. Cooler temperatures and northerly winds later in the week should continue to support Good ozone concentrations.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The extended forecast may begin on a dry note, but precipitation is expected to return for the weekend. No significant increases in pollution are anticipated.

Next Forecast update: Friday, August 14, 2026

08/07/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday August 7th, 2026, through Monday August 10th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The current weather pattern, through Friday evening, features upper air troughing centered over the western Great Lakes with moist, humid conditions. This moist environment, coupled with a somewhat unstable atmosphere, will continue to support chances for scattered showers and isolated storms during the afternoon and early evening hours on Friday.

The main frontal boundary draped across the Plains into the lower Great Lakes will get a push southeast through the area late Friday/early Saturday as the upper air trough finally releases and pushes eastward.  Some computer models are hinting at some severe potential during this time.  If convection potential manages to cross Lake Michigan relatively intact, there is a significant increase for the chances of strong/severe wind gusts.  Following that, I expect a largely dry Saturday afternoon/evening.

The current weather patterns indicate conditions will likely become more favorable for repeated showers and thundershowers across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Sunday through Tuesday.

Ozone bears watching, however the shorter days, shower potential and overhead smoke layers should reduce the potential for any significant ozone creep.

I want to conclude this forecast with a well-deserved shout-out to Kevin Craig, Chief Meteorologist for Grand Rapids Fox 17.  Last Tuesday was Kevin’s final night on air with Fox 17 and the EGLE forecasters greatly appreciate 25 years of his strong support for our Air Quality program. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to be to range between Good and Moderate to start the next work week.

Next Forecast update: Monday August 10th, 2026

08/03/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday July 31st, 2026, through Monday August 3rd, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

August is upon us as we round off July today, Friday, with clear skies for most of the day with rain moving in this evening and overnight. Michiganders will see temperatures ranging throughout the 80s on this final day of July before taking a dip into the 70s come Saturday. A low-pressure system and associated rain showers will move through the state overnight and into Saturday with stubbornly stagnant showers as we approach Saturday evening. Areas in western and northern Michigan may see upwards of an inch of rain whereas southern and eastern Michigan may land around a half inch or so when the system finally moves off to the east late Saturday night. On Sunday, eastern parts of the state may see lingering showers in the morning and early afternoon but clearing skies will slowly but surely prevail in the latter half of the weekend to start off the next week.

For air quality, with a relatively clean atmosphere currently, Ozone does not look to pose a threat today, even though temperatures will range in the 80s and winds will be south to southwesterly this afternoon. Scattered Moderates for Ozone should be expected however, with some along the Lake Michigan shoreline and metro Detroit potentially approaching the high-Moderate range. Our eyes are still watching wildfires in both Canada and western portions of the US, but fortunately, surface-level wildfire smoke does not look to be an issue this weekend. Upper-level smoke will hang around as it’s been present all of this week but a good clean out of that smoke will occur on Sunday as winds shift to a more northeasterly direction, bringing in relatively cleaner air.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Drier, and clearer conditions are on the horizon with warm temperatures next week. Air quality will remain in the Good to Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Monday August 3rd, 2026

07/29/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Wednesday July 29th, 2026 through Friday July 31st, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

High-pressure dominates the weather regime for the latter half of this week until a frontal boundary moves in as the high-pressure drifts to the east later on Friday. Before then, however, clear skies and temperatures in the 80s to 90s are on the docket today, Wednesday, and tomorrow, Thursday. Originally, Ozone was thought to possibly being an issue on Thursday with winds shifting back to a southerly direction, but the northerly winds we have been under since Tuesday, and lasting through Wednesday, has provided a rather clean atmosphere for us Michiganders. So although conditions will be present for Ozone to start to increase, the overall atmosphere will lack the necessary precursors for Ozone to become an issue. Especially with the potential for rain on Friday into Saturday morning, the airmass we are under will remain rather clean and Good to Moderate for air quality.

Upper-level smoke will hang around for the rest of this week with no indication of any of the smoke making its way to the surface. The wildfires producing this smoke are out west in the Pacific Northwest and into Canada, so there is plenty of distance between the Great Lakes and there for smoke to disperse into the upper atmosphere.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Rain looks to kick off the weekend for a good amount of Michiganders but looks to move off to the east come Sunday. Air quality will remain in the Good to Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Friday July 31st, 2026 

07/27/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday July 27th 2026, through Wednesday July 29th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Hard to believe that this is the last week of July as we are well into the second half of summer with near normal temperatures expected across the state.

Today, Monday, may pose a threat of severe weather across the lower peninsula as a low-pressure system and associated cold front move through from the northwest. This front looks to stall over mid-Michigan come Tuesday and into Wednesday which will hold the wind direction coming from the north in place until a change in airmass, and a high-pressure system moves in on Thursday. Thankfully, numerous rounds of rain have gone over the areas where wildfires are still burning in Canada and Minnesota, so smoke output has become less and less over the past few days. This high-pressure will linger to our south through Friday, which will provide lighter, southerly flow before another front moves through later on Friday. The chances of rain this week will be welcomed, I am sure of, especially since southern Michigan has been rather dry for the past few weeks with numerous areas below their seasonal precipitation norms by an inch or more.

For air quality this week, especially with wildfire smoke output becoming less as of right now, PM2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate range with shifting wind patterns potentially bringing in fine particulates form the south. Upper-level smoke, however, will persist over Michigan for the next couple of days with no expectation of smoke making its way to the surface. This will cause milky, gray skies along with colorful sunrises and sunsets, though. Ozone looks to be in the Good to Moderate range with the numerous chances of rain, frontal boundaries passing through, and change in wind direction all helping to keep the atmosphere clean of Ozone precursors for the first half of the week. As we get into Thursday, conditions may be in place for Ozone to increase, so because of this, the forecast will be updated on Wednesday to get a better look at Thursday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

August starts off the way July ends—seasonal norm temps with a chance of rain. Air quality will be in the Good to Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Wednesday July 29th, 2026

07/25/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Saturday, July 25, 2026 – Monday, July 27, 2026

PM-2.5: Concentrations will range from Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) with the highest levels in the upper peninsula.

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) are expected with the possibility for Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG – Orange AQI).

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A weather system will drop in from the north on Saturday, affecting mainly upper Michigan, while much of the Lower Peninsula stays dry with a good amount of sunshine. As the boundary drifts south through the day, small chances for showers extend farther into the Lower Peninsula Saturday night into early Sunday. There’s still uncertainty regarding how much precipitation will actually develop over the weekend. For now, Sunday appears mostly dry and warm, with higher chances of rain arriving Monday.

Smoke production remains low from ongoing fires across portions of Ontario and northern Minnesota. Recent precipitation in these areas should help limit smoke generation over the next few days. Farther west, several fires continue to burn across the western U.S. and in the central and northwestern provinces of Canada. Resulting smoke plumes are drifting eastward across the Great Lakes region. Only minor surface impacts are expected in this forecast period. Skies will be hazy at times, but PM2.5 concentrations exceeding the Moderate range are not anticipated. We will continue to monitor the wildfires and associated smoke through the weekend.

Ozone levels rose Friday but stayed in the low‑Moderate range. With sun and a warm southerly flow today, more widespread Moderate readings are expected. Forecast confidence decreases for Sunday and Monday due to uncertain precipitation, cloud cover, and minor surface smoke. Hourly ozone may briefly reach USG on Sunday, but 8‑hour values should remain Moderate. Increased clouds and better rain chances Monday should keep ozone from rising above Moderate. Conditions will be monitored and the forecast updated if higher levels become likely.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

We will continue to monitor the weather and smoke forecasts closely to determine whether any increase in pollution may warrant future Air Quality Alerts.

Next Forecast update: Monday, July 27, 2026

07/24/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, July 24, 2026 – Saturday, July 25, 2026

PM-2.5: Concentrations will range from Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) with the highest levels in the upper peninsula.

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) are expected with the possibility for Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG – Orange AQI).

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Air quality readings Friday morning range from Good to low‑Moderate across the state. Another dry day is expected with high pressure positioned to the east. Southerly winds combined with sunshine will allow temperatures to rise compared to Thursday. A frontal boundary is forecast to drop in from the northwest, bringing chances for precipitation over the weekend.

Smoke production remains low from the ongoing fires across parts of Ontario and northern Minnesota. Precipitation is forecast for those areas tonight and again on Sunday, which should help minimize smoke production over the next few days. Farther west, several fires continue to burn across the western U.S. and in the central and northwestern provinces of Canada. Associated smoke plumes may drift into the region at times through the weekend, but only minor surface impacts are anticipated. For the forecast period, we expect hazy skies and surface PM2.5 concentrations to reach no higher than the Moderate range. We will continue to monitor the wildfires and associated smoke through the weekend.

Cooler temperatures since mid‑week have kept ozone in the Good range, but increases in concentrations are expected this weekend. Plentiful sunshine and a warmer southerly flow on Friday will allow ozone levels to rise into the Moderate range, especially across central and southern locations. Warmer surface and upper‑level temperatures on Saturday will likely drive ozone higher than on Friday, and we agree with the current model guidance of concentrations in the Moderate range. A small chance for precipitation enters the forecast late Saturday into early Sunday morning. With mostly sunny skies and warm surface and upper‑level temperatures Sunday afternoon, ozone‑conducive conditions are again possible. By Sunday, we think there is a chance for ozone to reach USG levels, and because of this, we will update the forecast Saturday morning to get a better handle on expected ozone conditions for early next week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Warm conditions will continue early next week, but precipitation chances will also come into play. We will continue to monitor the weather and smoke forecasts closely to determine whether any increase in pollution may warrant future Air Quality Alerts.

Next Forecast update: Saturday, July 25, 2026

07/23/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday, July 23, 2026 – Friday , July 24, 2026

PM-2.5: Concentrations will range from Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) with the highest levels in the upper peninsula.

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range will continue.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Air quality readings remain mostly Good Thursday morning across the state. High pressure over the region is supporting light northwesterly to westerly winds. Expect plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures throughout the day. The surface high shifts east Friday into Saturday as a frontal boundary settles into the Arrowhead region of Minnesota. Southerly winds during this period will allow temperatures to rise for the end of the week.

Smoke production remains low from the ongoing fires across parts of Ontario and northern Minnesota. Precipitation is forecast for those areas Friday night, and if it happens, smoke production should stay low over the next few days. Farther west, several fires continue to burn across the central and northwestern provinces of Canada. As noted in yesterday’s forecast, smoke from these fires has pushed into North Dakota, and a continued eastward expansion of the plume is expected. At this time, smoke has mostly remained at upper levels, and only minor surface impacts are anticipated. For Thursday and Friday, we expect hazy skies and surface PM2.5 concentrations no higher than the Moderate range.

Cooler temperatures on Thursday will keep ozone in check, but an increase is expected on Friday as plentiful sunshine and a southerly wind develop. We anticipate ozone rising into the Moderate range Friday, with the potential for even higher concentrations on Saturday. Given the possibility of elevated ozone this weekend and continued uncertainty surrounding regional smoke, we will update this forecast Friday morning to reflect expected weekend conditions.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Warm, dry conditions late in the week may lead to increased fire activity, and the potential for ozone‑favorable conditions. We are monitoring the weather and smoke forecasts closely to determine if any resulting increase in pollution may warrant future Air Quality Alerts.

Next Forecast update: Friday, July 24, 2026

07/22/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 - Thursday, July 23, 2026

PM-2.5: Concentrations will range from Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) with the highest levels in the upper peninsula Thursday.

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range will continue.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Air quality readings Wednesday morning were Good across the state, a welcome change from conditions over the past week or so. High pressure and a northerly wind flow will bring cool, dry weather through the day. As the high shifts east Thursday into Friday, winds will turn westerly and then southwesterly. This change in wind direction will support a steady warming trend toward the end of the week.

Fires are ongoing across parts of Ontario, but recent rainfall in those areas has kept smoke production low. As a result, even with northerly winds, we have not seen increases in PM2.5 from wildfire smoke. However, several fires are also burning across the central and northwestern provinces of Canada. Smoke from these fires has already moved into North Dakota, and westerly winds on Thursday are expected to push these plumes eastward into the upper peninsula. At this time, we do not anticipate daily averages of PM2.5 to exceed Moderate, but a few hours of Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG) is possible in the western upper peninsula.

Sunshine and rising surface temperatures will create a more ozone conducive environment toward the end of the week; however, upper‑level temperatures remain cool, which usually helps limit ozone formation. Forecasting ozone can be challenging when wildfire smoke is present, but at this time we expect only gradual increases over the next few days. Concentrations higher than Moderate are not anticipated.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Warmer and drier conditions late in the week may allow the fires across Ontario to become more active. We are monitoring this closely to determine whether any resulting increase in pollution may warrant future Air Quality Alerts.

Next Forecast update: Thursday, July 23, 2026

07/20/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, July 20, 2026 - Wednesday, July 22, 2026

Air Quality Alert for Monday, July 20, 2026

The Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy (EGLE) has issued an Air Quality Alert for July 20, 2026, for elevated levels of fine particulate due to wildfire smoke.

This is a Statewide Air Quality Alert

PM-2.5: Concentrations on Monday will be mostly in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG – Orange AQI). Continued improvement is expected Tuesday and Wednesday with averages in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range will continue.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Sunday was another day with wildfire smoke across the region. While levels were not as high last week, daily 24-averages ranged from Very Unhealthy (purple AQI) to Unhealthy (Red AQI) across the upper peninsula to mostly USG (orange AQI) across the lower peninsula.

Daily averages ranged from 135 ug/m3 in Marquette to 33 ug/m3 in Flint and Port Huron. Maximum hourly concentrations ranged from 200 ug/m3 at the Seney monitor to 44 ug/m3 at the Tecumseh monitor.

On Monday, PM2.5 concentrations are lingering in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG) range across much of the state. Levels are expected to remain in this range through most of the day, so the Air Quality Alert will continue through Monday. As a weather system moves through, improvements are expected, and by Tuesday, PM2.5 concentrations should fall into the Moderate range. Looking ahead, forecast guidance suggests that light smoke may drift into the region on the cool northwest flow behind Monday’s system. At this time, we do not expect more than an hour or two of USG level hourly readings in the western upper peninsula.

High pressure will settle over the region on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing dry conditions and gradually warming temperatures as the week progresses. Under this warmer, dry setup, there is potential for increased smoke formation, so we will issue another forecast update on Wednesday to refine expectations for smoke for the rest of the week.

Despite the dry pattern, cooler surface and upper‑level temperatures should help keep ozone levels from rising above the Moderate range through mid‑week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air quality in the Moderate range may persist in the extended period.

Next Forecast update: Wednesday, July 22, 2026

07/19/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Sunday, July 19, 2026 through Monday, July 20, 2026

Air Quality Alerts for Sunday and Monday, July 19-20, 2026

The Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy (EGLE) is issuing Air Quality Alerts for elevated levels of fine particulate (PM2.5) for Sunday and Monday, July 19-20, 2026. 

PM2.5: During Sunday, pollutants are expected to range between Unhealthy (AQI Red) in the Upper Peninsula to USG (AQI Orange) in the Lower Peninsula.  During Monday, conditions are expected to improve but could still reach USG (AQI Orange) levels statewide.

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are expected to be a mix of mostly Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow).

FORECAST DISCUSSION

After a brief period of relief from smoke in the Lower Peninsula early Saturday, smoke rolled back in, as expected, later in the day.  Fortunately, we did not reach the Harzardous range on the AQI scale and remained mostly Unhealthy in the Upper Peninsula.  In the Lower Peninsula, we ranged from USG in the north to Moderate in the south.

Daily averages ranged from 175 ug/m3 at Marquette to 21 ug/m3 at Tecumseh.  Maximum hourly impacts ranged from 288 ug/m3 at Marquette to 75 ug/m3 in the Detroit area.

Monday looks to continue a trend of slow improvement across the state.  The smoke models are consistent with decreasing smoke concentrations although some smoke is still expected to linger.  As such, we will maintain the lowest level of Alert (USG) throughout the state while expecting conditions to slowly improve.

Ozone could spike in certain areas if enough sun breaks through.  Fortunately, ozone levels stayed low on Saturday, and models indicate that trend should continue.

Although fires continue to rage in Canada, models are leaning for the next few days to be more tolerable as we could certainly use some relief.

In the meantime, it is recommended to avoid strenuous outdoor activities, especially those with heart disease and respiratory conditions like asthma. Watch for symptoms including wheezing, coughing, chest tightness, dizziness, or burning in nose, throat, and eyes. You can help reduce air pollution by limiting activities, such as outdoor burning.  Keep windows closed overnight to prevent smoke from getting indoors and, if possible, run central air conditioning with MERV-13 or higher rated filters.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to be to range between USG and Moderate in the early half of the week.  Forecasts will continue to be updated frequently, to keep track of any unexpected changes.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Sunday, July 19, 2026

Next forecast update: Monday, July 20, 2026