03/16/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, March 16, 2026 - Friday, March 20, 2026

PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will average mostly Good (Green AQI) with some Moderate (Yellow AQI) possible past mid-week.

 FORECAST DISCUSSION:

 Winter is having a hard time letting go, especially across northern Michigan, where a blizzard is hitting early this week. Other parts of the state are dealing with mixed precipitation that will transition to snow as strong northwest winds drive temperatures downward through the day Monday. Travel is expected to be difficult to impossible across northern areas, so anyone planning to head out Monday or Tuesday should check local conditions.

 Snow tapers off from west to east later today, but gusty winds will continue to reduce visibility due to blowing snow, particularly in the north. Lake-effect snow showers are expected to persist on Tuesday, though high pressure moving in from the west should bring a brief period of drier weather from late Tuesday to early Wednesday. Another weak system will drop in from the northwest Wednesday into Thursday, bringing light precipitation. Forecast models indicate a warm-up and drier conditions toward the end of the week.

 Air quality starts off Good thanks to the strong, gusty northwest flow. Northwest winds persist into Tuesday, helping maintain Good conditions. By mid‑week, winds weaken and shift to a more southerly direction, which could allow fine particulate levels to rise into the Moderate range.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models indicate dry conditions to begin the weekend. However, another storm system may track east of the region early next week. Most of the associated precipitation may miss Michigan, but the resulting northwest winds should help bring in Good air quality early next week.

Next Forecast update: Friday, March 20, 2026

03/13/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, March 13, 2026 through Monday, March 16, 2026

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

A bit of a messy weekend is on tap leading up to St. Patrick’s Day early next week.  Friday’s weather is showing some accumulating snowfall moving in later this morning through midday, with the highest accumulations of 2-4 inches confined to areas along/north of M-46.  This is due to strong low-pressure system, which will continue to track across the Great Lakes region passing over northern lower Michigan Friday afternoon.  The most noticeable feature of Friday’s weather will likely be strong winds due to a very strong low level wind field.  This will bring the highest potential of winds gusts to 40-45 mph, or greater, by early afternoon as winds shift from southwest to west.

Seasonably cool air filters back into the region with drier and much less windy conditions, Saturday, with chilly daytime temperatures likely not reaching 40 degrees.

An active weather pattern returns Saturday night through Sunday with another system set to impact much of the Great Lake’s region.  Fortunately, the southern half of the Lower Peninsula should miss the heaviest snowfall which could bring over 2 feet of snow for portions of northern Lower and the Upper Peninsula.  Snow potential is still 1-2 inches in the southern lower, however.  There is also potential for ice accumulation from freezing rain in Central Michigan Sunday through Sunday night with some computer model solutions producing over a quarter- inch of ice.

Behind the backside of the low, during Monday, a change over to lake-enhanced snow and strong winds is expected, with Southwest Michigan getting in on continued winter weather impacts.  Prolonged heavy snow will also be possible across northern or central Lake Huron, pending the final track of the system.

Winter is not over but Spring is just around the corner.  On a positive note, Good Air Quality is expected throughout the state, and the trend should continue into early next week. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Qulity is expected to continue to be mostly Good entering the upcoming work week.

03/09/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, March 9, 2026 through Friday, March 13, 2026

 PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) with scattered Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) throughout the forecast period.

  FORECAST DISCUSSION

 The week begins with Good Air Quality throughout the state, and the trend should continue through the majority of the work week.  The quiet, tranquil weather we see Monday morning should persist into Tuesday morning with the potential for severe weather Tuesday evening into Tuesday night.  The Storm Prediction Center has increased our chance of severe weather bumping the threat from a marginal to a slight chance.

 Locally heavy rain looks more than possible from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.  We are likely looking at swaths of one to possibly two inches of rain especially from I-96 to the south.  Rivers are higher now given recent rains so additional precipitation will likely push quite a few river basin locations to near flood stage.

 This is Michigan and just because March has arrived does not mean winter is over.  A potent clipper system is expected to sweep from west to east through the area Thursday night into Friday.  Accumulating snow is potentially expected across Central Lower Michigan with this system, albeit warming surface conditions should keep it to a minimum.

 A preview of the weekend shows seasonable temperatures in the lower 40’s with a chance of rain/snow shower activity.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to continue to be mostly Good entering the upcoming weekend. 

03/06/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday March 6th, 2026, through Monday March 9th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Above average temperatures and rainy conditions are on the docket for the start of this first weekend in March. Many of us Michiganders woke up this Friday morning to foggy conditions with temperatures ranging from the mid-30s to mid-40s with the southwestern part of the state currently sitting in a warm sector of air. This is due to a lifting warm front which will cross over the lower peninsula through the day today and into tomorrow, Saturday. With it, there is the potential for storms Friday evening and early Saturday morning. Aside from storm potential, essentially all of Michigan will have seen a good, soaking rain come Saturday evening once the low-pressure system carrying the frontal boundary exits to the east. Once out of the area, we start to dry out later into the evening on Saturday with slightly cooler temperatures and breezy conditions. As a gift from Mother Nature though, Michiganders will wake up Sunday to clearing skies and increasing temperatures into the mid-40s to mid-to-upper-50s. This warming trend continues into Monday with the 60s making a return to the lower peninsula and the 40s for the upper peninsula due to a cold front lingering in the straits area.

For air quality, Friday will see the highest PM-2.5 concentrations in the mid-Moderate range, leftover from stagnant morning conditions. Once winds pick up and surface heating helps to break up the inversion in place, PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to decrease as the aforementioned front moves in Friday afternoon. The rain on Friday evening and Saturday morning will help to continually decrease PM-2.5 concentrations even more along with wind direction which will shift to more northwesterly flow come Saturday evening. The combination of rain and wind direction shifts will drop concentrations down and overall air quality is expected to be in the Good range come Saturday evening and through Sunday. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Warmer temperatures start off the next work week with air quality remaining in the Good range.

Next Forecast update: Monday March 9th, 2026

03/02/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday March 2nd, 2026, through Friday March 6th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Meteorological spring is here with the calendar turning to March. This week will see a steady increase in surface temperatures from southerly winds with much of the state today, Monday, sitting near normal for temperatures for this time of the year. As we get into Tuesday, the mid-40s makes a return to the state with some spotty rain showers in southern portions. More widespread rain looks cross over the lower peninsula come Thursday as temperatures attempt to climb into the 50s. For the work week, the tip of the temperature iceberg will be Friday with the 60s making a return to the lower peninsula with the upper peninsula staying steady in the mid-40s.

Along with the increase in temperature and rain showers this week, winds will be rather light as we will be between systems for much of the week. With the increasing temperatures and light southerly winds, PM-2.5 concentrations can be expected to increase, especially in the morning and afternoon rush hour timeframes. Surface inversions can be expected during morning hours as the warmer temperatures move in and cap off the atmosphere for a few hours before winds pick up. Aside from rain showers helping to clean out the atmosphere, concentrations in the Moderate range should be expected with the possibility of hourly Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups concentrations, especially in the middle to latter half of the work week. As of now, these concentrations do not look to be as long-lasting as a few weeks ago but should still be noted. Any changes that warrant an update will be made.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

A warm and potentially rainy weekend is ahead with air quality in the Good to Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Friday March 6th, 2026

02/27/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday February 27th, 2026, through Monday March 2nd, 2026

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Meteorological spring is upon us this upcoming Sunday, March 1st, with Old Man Winter holding onto our temperatures for much of the weekend. We start off today, Friday, with above normal temperatures and ample sunshine with surface temperatures ranging from the upper-40s to mid-50s across the state. Southwesterly flow will be felt throughout the region with warmer air being brought in with gusty conditions throughout the afternoon. Come Saturday, however, a cold front moves in from the north which will slowly overtake the entire state and shift winds back to northerly flow, thus dropping temperatures down to near seasonal norms. With the cold front, a round of snow showers is expected Saturday night into Sunday with only minimal impacts. The cooler trend continues into Sunday with temperatures just below seasonal norms in the mid to upper 20s, but sunshine is expected due to High-pressure returning after the frontal boundary on Saturday exits the region. Clear skies hang around into Monday with slight temperature improvements into the 30s.

Warmer temperatures and southerly flow today will increase PM-2.5 concentrations into the mid-Moderate range due to a somewhat weak atmospheric inversion during the morning hours. With the winds Friday afternoon, however, the inversion will not last and concentrations will be able to disperse with the breezy conditions. Once the cooler conditions return on Saturday and Sunday, PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to drop back into the Good range. Ozone season officially starts on Sunday, March 1st which will bring back the Ozone part of this forecast, although we typically do not start seeing Ozone increase until the April timeframe.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

A warming trend is on the horizon for mid-next week and so on, air quality will remain in the Good to Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Monday March 2nd, 2026

02/23/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday February 23, 2026, through Friday February 27, 2026

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A return to seasonal normal temperatures is on the docket for this week after early last week’s false spring. Many of us Michiganders are waking up to fresh snowfall this Monday morning as a quick hitting system moved over the state during the day Sunday and into this morning. Lake-effect snow bands are still accumulating snow over the snowbelts with a few extra inches expected in those areas. Some of us receive a slight break in snow before another system moves into the region from the north which will drop another two inches or so across the state with snowbelt areas receiving slightly more. This system will move out of the area come Wednesday before a High-pressure system moves in on Thursday. Sunshine is expected when this system moves in and southward across the state as we move into Friday which will see the High-pressure to our south. As the High-pressure moves south, winds will shift with it and provide southerly flow and warmer temperatures. The 40s looks to make a return for a good majority of the state Friday and into the last day of February on Saturday.

For air quality, rather consistent airmass change this week will help to keep PM-2.5 concentrations low as clean air will continually be brought in. PM-2.5 concentrations may see an increase in the latter half of the week with warmer temperatures and surface inversions. As of now, however, low-to-mid Moderate concentrations are expected. With February ending this weekend, the Ozone season officially starts on Sunday, March 1. Although we typically do not see Ozone increases until the middle of April, the Ozone forecast will make a return in the upcoming month of March. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Southerly flow will provide warmer temperatures for the start of the weekend, but a cold front moves through just in time for Sunday, which will cool us back down into the upper-20s. Air quality will return to the Good range after a few potential peaks into the Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Friday February 27, 2026

02/20/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, February 20, 2026 through Monday, February 23, 2026

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to start mostly Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) transitioning to Good (AQI Green) throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

The snow has melted in most of the Lower Peninsula and warmer temperatures have given us a taste of upcoming Spring weather.  It was quite refreshing to emerge from our winter dungeons and enjoy fresh air that did not hurt to breathe.

We will take a step back this weekend, however, as we return to some colder air, albeit not nearly as cold as what we experienced during January and early February.  Friday will feature windy conditions as a deep low-pressure system passes through the upper half of the state.  The wrap-around winds will shift to the west and northwest following the exit of the low-pressure system.

Friday’s weather, along with the wind, will feature drizzly rain showers, low clouds, and falling temperatures, eventually giving way to scattered afternoon snow showers.  For the remainder of the weekend, our Spring teaser ends with temperatures in the 20s to 30s.

On a positive note, Air Quality will improve as we finally get a clean out from the somewhat murky air of the past few days.  Thus, the weekend should feature AQI’s transitioning from scattered Moderate to mostly Good.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to a mix of mostly Good entering the upcoming work week. 

02/17/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday, February 17, 2026 through Friday, February 20, 2026

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Most people are aware of the elevated fine particulate episode we endured in SE Michigan over the weekend.  The news media attached themselves to the narrative that melting snow was directly emitting particulates into the atmosphere.  Unfortunately, this is a misrepresentation of the role that melting snow plays in the formation of fine particulates.  Does melting snow directly emit particulates to the atmosphere as it melts? Absolutely not…  Can melting snow play a role in the formation of fine particulates. Yes, assuming other elements are in play.

Those other elements include a solid snowpack which keeps the air near the ground cold.  Next you have warm air overriding the cold surface, as we did with temperatures nearing 60 degrees.  With warm air overriding cold air, the atmosphere is very stable with air tending to sink towards the ground.  Add to that a persistent high-pressure dome which created a strong inversion layer, especially during the nighttime hours.  That inversion layer can be near the surface effectively trapping the increasing dirty air already hugging the ground.  A review of the upper air sounding, Sunday morning, showed that capping inversion layer began only 30 meters above the ground.  Consider, too, all the particulates from road salt dust kicked up by urban scale traffic along with all the primary and secondary fine particulates from vehicle emissions. home/industrial heating, and industrial processes being continually pumped into that shallow layer of air trapped near the ground.  Compounding the issue is increased moisture from the snow melt which can act as a catalyst for forming secondary particles and also act as a nuclei for other particulates. 

With all those pollutants being crammed into this tight 30-meter layer, it was not surprising to see increasing particulate readings.  The AQD forecaster observed all the elements coming together and appropriately issued an advisory.  The forecasters decided to extend the advisory through noon, Monday, when winds were expected to increase allowing for cleaner air to mix down.  This forecast was accurate as we did experience several SE Michigan monitors cross into the USG range.

Following this event on social media, I observed several comments to the effect that people had never seen this phenomena before.  Actually, it is quite common for this to occur during this time of year, albeit to different degrees.  This was more a of “perfect storm” where all the contributing elements were at an extreme causing higher concentrations.

The rest of the work week should feature AQI’s in the Moderate range.  While we do not see a complete cleanout during the week, most of the elements described above are no longer in play.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to a mix of Good to Moderate entering the upcoming weekend. 

02/13/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday February 13th, 2026, through Tuesday February 17th, 2026

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) range with possible Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Orange AQI) hourly concentrations.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Above average temperatures and ample sunlight will be observed this weekend in mid-February as High-pressure dominates the weather regime over the next few days. Along with keeping skies mostly clear, the High-pressure will shift winds to more southerly flow which will bring in the warmer air. Upper-30s to upper-40s will be seen across the state with some areas in southern Michigan potentially seeing the 50s in the latter half of the weekend and into Presidents’ Day on Monday. After numerous weeks of bone-chilling temperatures and plenty of snow, this weekend will provide a well-deserved break.

While warmer temperatures will be a nice change, they will pose a threat to air quality as snow will steadily melt throughout the weekend and release particulates into the air in doing so. The High-pressure will also stagnate winds which will allow PM-2.5 concentrations to accumulate due to inefficient to non-existent air dispersion. The set up at hand is looking like a classic winter PM-2.5 event with the combination of warming temperatures, melting snow and light winds. As an indicator of what is ahead, there is currently an inversion in place this Friday morning which essentially caps off any dispersion in the atmosphere, near the surface. Long-lasting inversions should be expected throughout this weekend, especially with most of Michigan covered with snow. What is expected to occur is warmer temperatures will move in, but the snowpack across Michigan will present cooler temperatures near the surface, so we will potentially have warmer air over cooler air. That set up is what causes a surface inversion which, as stated above, creates stagnant conditions. With the ingredients in place, PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate range in the days ahead with some hourly concentrations approaching or exceeding the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG) range. I do not expect multiple hours in the USG range as of now, but if conditions warrant a forecast update, one will be sent out.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The warming trend continues into next week with the peak of temperatures looking to be Wednesday. Due to the warming temperatures, air quality will remain in the Moderate range.

Next Forecast update, as of now: Tuesday February 17th, 2026

02/09/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday February 9th, 2026, through Friday February 13th, 2026

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

As we approach the middle of February, a quick thaw is in store for Tuesday with surface temperatures potentially reaching the 40s in some southern Michigan areas. This is due to a pressure system and associated warm front that will eclipse southern portion of the state throughout Tuesday. On the back side, however, temperatures cool back down to below freezing until we reach the latter half of the week when temperatures jump back up above freezing statewide. There does not appear to be any snowmakers heading towards the Great Lakes state, aside from local lake-effect snow showers predominantly in the Upper Peninsula.

For air quality, with a few days this week in the mid-to-upper 30s F, melting snow may lead to increases in PM-2.5 concentrations into the upper Moderate range. These increases are expected to be limited to a few hours, especially on Tuesday when wind speeds will help to disperse any particulate release. The second warm up during the latter half of the week may see lighter winds so mid-to-high Moderate concentrations may hang around longer. If any changes in the forecast warrant an update, one will be sent out. But overall, mid-Moderate PM-2.5 concentrations should be expected this week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

We may see a weekend completely above freezing ahead of us, which may cause an increase in PM-2.5 concentrations. A closer look will be made later this week.

Next Forecast update: Friday February 13th, 2026

02/06/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, February 6, 2026 through Monday, February 9, 2026

 PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) to Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) throughout the forecast period.

  FORECAST DISCUSSION

 Even though we are only about three weeks away from meteorological spring, Old Man Winter is not relinquishing his grip on Michigan.  Friday morning awakens to light snowy conditions thanks to a shortwave of low pressure to our southwest.  Although its effects should be gone by noon, it did make the Friday morning commute a bit messy. 

 The main weather feature of Friday weather, however, is an Arctic front which will work its way through the state during the afternoon hours.  While not much snow is expected, temperatures will once again drop to below average levels.  Is there any relief in sight?  Hopefully, yes, as the computer models are showing some moderating temperatures during next week.  While not yet sunbathing weather, it does look like we break the freezing mark for a few days and may finally start a slow melt before hitting another short cold spell by the end of the work week.

 In terms of Air Quality, we have a mixture of Good and Low Moderate Air Quality which should persist throughout the weekend.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good to Low Moderate entering the upcoming work week with slight moderating temperatures. 

02/02/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, February 2, 2026 through Friday, February 6, 2026

 PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) to Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) throughout the forecast period.

  FORECAST DISCUSSION

 As February arrives, light snow will move through the area during Monday as a shortwave of low-pressure approaches and moves through the region.  This area of snow could switch over to light freezing drizzle during Monday afternoon although little, if any, accumulation is expected.

 The remainder of the work week should be mostly dry with near normal temperatures for this time of year.  This is a break from the bitter cold of recent.  A check of climatic records shows that the daily highs in the Lansing area have been between -12 and -28 degrees below normal for the past nine days. For this week, however, forecasts show high temperatures in the 20’s and nearing the freezing mark by Friday.

 The moderating temperatures look to be short lived as models are in general agreement that a surge of colder air will push into the Great Lakes region Friday night into Saturday.  Saturday temperatures look similar to days in the recent past with highs only in the teens and lows in the single digits.  Fortunately, the bitterly cold air does not stay long as it is projected to be pushed out of the Midwest region by Monday.

 In terms of Air Quality, we have a mixture of Good and Low Moderate Air Quality conditions which should persist throughout the week.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good to Low Moderate entering the upcoming weekend. 

Next forecast update: Friday, February 6, 2026

01/30/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, January 30, 2026 through Monday, February 2, 2026

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) with scattered Low Moderates (AQI Yellow) throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

January finally comes to an end, Saturday, and while it will not make much difference in the current cold weather snap, we can optimistically say the meteorological spring is one month away.  And while this certainly seems like the winter that will never end, things will get a slight bit warmer by the end of the weekend. 

High pressure moves over the region during the weekend giving us a break from the clouds.  While it will be nice to see some sun, the lack of clouds at night will drop temperatures back below the zero-degree mark.  As the high slides eastward, we do get into some southwest winds.  It will not give us a thaw but by Sunday, daytime highs temperature should reach the mid-20’s and nighttime lows should stay above the zero-degree mark.

That trend should persist through the upcoming week, although with no real chance to break the freezing mark.  The long-range forecast has another blast of Arctic air dropping south over the region, next weekend, so Old Man Winter is not leaving anytime soon.

In terms of Air Quality, Good Air Quality should begin the weekend with increasingly scattered Moderates by the end of the weekend as temperature moderate a bit.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good to Moderate entering the upcoming work week. 

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Friday, January 30, 2026

Next forecast update: Monday, February 2, 2026

01/26/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, January 26, 2026 through Friday, January 30, 2026

 PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) with scattered Low Moderates (AQI Yellow) throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

 The coldest air of the season remains intact with no significant relief through the forecast period.  Friday night temperatures dropped in the -20-degree range in much of the Lower Peninsula with some stations reporting the coldest temperatures in 30 years. 

 This week continues with bitterly cold weather with daytime high temperatures in the teens and overnight lows near zero.  West Michigan continues to be bombarded with lake effect snow with several more inches expected in western Ottawa, Allegan, and Van Buren counties.  During Monday, the National Weather Service is predicting snowfall amounts will largely range from 1-4 inches within the advisory area but the highest amounts of 5-7 inches are more likely within Van Buren and southwest potions of Allegan County.

 A shortwave of low pressure is projected to move through the area late Monday night into Tuesday morning bringing widespread accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along and west of US-131 with lower amounts further east.  A second and larger, colder arctic intrusion is forecasted to dig straight southward into the region Thursday and Friday with overnight lows projected in the sub-zero range.

 High pressure moves across the region during the weekend.  As the high pressure slides eastward, the area comes under light southwest winds which should slightly moderate the temperatures to around 20 degrees by Sunday.

 In terms of Air Quality, Good Air Quality should begin the week with increasingly scattered Moderates by the end of the week.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good to Moderate entering the upcoming weekend. 

01/23/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, January 23, 2026 - Monday, January 26, 2026

PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will average mostly Good (Green AQI) with some Moderate (Yellow AQI) possible, mainly in the south on Sunday.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Michigan is currently under the coldest airmass of the season, with wind chills well below zero. These extremely cold temperatures and dangerous wind chills will persist into Saturday, accompanied by lake-effect snow in the northwest snowbelt areas.

Temperatures remain cold on Sunday but will improve slightly compared to Friday and Saturday. Attention then shifts to a large winter storm expected to bring widespread winter weather from the southern Rockies to New England Friday through Monday. The northern edge of this system will move across parts of the Lower Peninsula on Sunday.

Snowfall amounts remain uncertain, but current models suggest up to 3 inches in the southeast portion of the state. This will be important to monitor, especially for those with travel plans.

After the storm pushes east, northwest winds will return early next week, once again triggering lake-effect snow in favored areas.

The forecast period begins with Good air quality statewide, and these Good levels are expected to continue through Saturday. A brief period of lighter winds on Sunday may allow for some Moderate concentrations in southern Michigan; otherwise, Good readings should persist into early next week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models indicate that systems moving in early next week will maintain lake-effect snow chances in the forecast. Air quality is expected to remain in the Good range early next week.

Next Forecast update: Monday, January 26, 2026

01/20/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday, January 20, 2026 - Friday, January 23, 2026

PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will average mostly Good (Green AQI) with some Moderate (Yellow AQI) possible, especially Wednesday into Thursday in the south.

 FORECAST DISCUSSION:

This forecast period begins with Good air quality across the state. Aside from some lake effect snows in parts of the Upper Peninsula, generally quiet conditions are expected elsewhere.  However, a continuation of cold temperature and brisk wind chills will be noted.  A persistent northerly wind will help maintain Good air quality through Tuesday.

As we move into midweek, a clipper system will bring another round of snow from west to east across the state on Wednesday, while lake-effect snow persists in the Upper Peninsula. Most areas can expect 2–4 inches of accumulation, with locally higher amounts in western locations. A brief period of lighter winds may allow fine particulate concentrations to reach Moderate levels Wednesday into Thursday across southern portions of the state. Any buildup of pollution will diminish by Friday as a very cold arctic air mass settles into the region late Thursday into Friday. High temperatures will drop into the single digits by the end of the workweek. Northerly winds will help keep fine particulate levels in the Good range Thursday and Friday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show the cold arctic air lingering into Saturday, keeping air quality in the Good range for the start of the weekend.

Next Forecast update: Friday, January 23, 2026

01/16/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, January 16, 2026 through Tuesday, January 20, 2026

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

A low-pressure cell moves across the upper Great Lakes, during Friday, dragging a series of fronts with it.  Friday snow will likely impact areas from upper and central Lower Peninsula and west to Lake Michigan.

As the weekend progresses, West Michigan snow may get heavy later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night and then again Sunday evening through Monday morning as an Arctic front arrives.  This front will usher in some bitterly cold Arctic air which could lead to some periods of significant lake effect snow.  The Arctic air arriving Monday morning will produce falling temperatures during the day and lasting through Tuesday.  These bitterly cold temperatures will be further aggravated with strong winds and wind chills.

In terms of Air Quality, Good Air Quality should persist through the forecast period.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good entering the upcoming work week. 

01/12/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, January 12, 2026 through Friday, January 16, 2026

 PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) to Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) throughout the forecast period.

  FORECAST DISCUSSION

 AQI values begin the week in the Good category.  Monday may prove to be the mildest day of the forecast period.  A short wave of low pressure will exit the region followed by a short-duration ridge of high pressure.  That will be following be another short wave of low pressure, Tuesday morning, with rain under warmer 40 degree temperatures as we remain under a continental air mass.

 January temperatures return Wednesday morning as an arctic front drops down from Canada followed by Canadian high pressure on Thursday.  Expect high temperatures in the low 20’s.  There does not appear to be a threat of a major snow event during this forecast period although some snow may accompany the arctic front passage on Wednesday.  Lake effect snow should be minimized with the wind fetch behind that front being more north-northeast than west-northwest.

 In terms of Air Quality, Good Air Quality should persist with some scattered Low Moderates in the early part of the week.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good entering the upcoming weekend. 

01/09/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, January 9, 2026 - Monday, January 12, 2026

PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will average mostly Good (Green AQI) with some Moderate (Yellow AQI) possible late in the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Strong winds will accompany a cold front today (Friday), bringing a mix of precipitation across Michigan. Accumulating snow is expected in the western Upper Peninsula, while the eastern Upper Peninsula and northern Lower Peninsula may experience a mix of rain and snow with little accumulation. Any precipitation in southern areas will fall as rain. Temperatures start unseasonably warm across much of Michigan, but readings will drop as colder air moves in. Conditions briefly quiet late Friday before two systems phase and move through the region on Saturday. Snow returns to the forecast across the western Upper Peninsula early Saturday, and snow chances spread east across the state through the day. Snow ends west to east Sunday as ridging builds.

Air quality will remain in the Good range across most areas through the end of the week. A brief period of lighter winds in the east on Saturday could allow for some low Moderate readings, but reinforcing northwest winds late Saturday into Sunday should maintain Good conditions into the new week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models indicate a quick-moving system on Monday that may bring snow to northern areas, but most of the state should remain dry. A stronger clipper system is expected Tuesday, returning snow to the forecast statewide. Air quality should stay in the Good range, though lighter winds on Monday could lead to some low Moderate readings in the more urban areas.

Next Forecast update: Monday, January 12, 2026