05/15/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, May 15, 2026 through Monday, May 18, 2026

 Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are expected to be Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow) throughout the forecast period.

 PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) to Scattered Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

The cooler weather of late will give way to summer like heat and humidity during the weekend which should continue through early next week.  Departing high pressure during Friday will change the wind

pattern to a southerly direction ushering in those increased temperatures and southern moisture.

We are watching these developments closely as those southerly wind directions, 80-degree temperatures and mid 60-degree dew points are approaching the ‘sweet spot’ for increased ozone.  Fortunately, there will be a flurry of regional frontal activity throughout the forecast period to keep the atmosphere well mixed.  Some storms expected along a warm front across northern Indiana Saturday afternoon could be strong to severe, but modeling indications are that they will likely remain to our south.  Sunday will be most likely be precipitation free with increasing temperatures and humidity triggering potentially strong to severe storms during Monday.

In terms of Air Quality, Fine Particulates do not appear to pose any issues as wildfire development is still at a minimum.  We could see some ozone creep, Saturday and Sunday, in areas subject to prolonged sunlight.  Models are indicating widespread Moderate concentrations and there appears to be little concern that we will see USG concentrations, although some areas could have a few hours of elevated ozone.  However, since conditions could be favorable, we will track developments during the weekend and update the ozone potential, if necessary.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to be Good to Moderate entering the upcoming work week before we see a cool down by mid-week.

 Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Friday, May 15, 2026

Next forecast update: Monday, May 18, 2026

05/11/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, May 11, 2026 through Friday, May 15, 2026

 Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) to scattered Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) throughout the forecast period.

 PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) throughout the forecast period.

  FORECAST DISCUSSION

 Cooler than average temperatures will persist during the early portion of the week but will succumb to warming temperatures by the end of the week.  One more really chilly night is on tap as a Canadian high-pressure cell remains in place with clear skies and light winds. There is a chance for frost/freeze conditions which could impact much of the state in rural areas.

 As the Canadian high-pressure system departs to the east, increasing clouds during Tuesday morning will signal the arrival of a fast-moving clipper system which is projected to bring showers in by afternoon and lasting into early Wednesday.

 High-pressure returns to the area on Thursday signaling the beginning of a warming period as winds return to a southerly component.  By the weekend, we should see temperatures in the upper 70’s to low 80’s with the chance of scattered showers.

 The cooler weather and favorable winds during most of the work week will keep Air Quality in the Good range.  The warmer weather expected by the end of the week should allow for a creep into the ozone Low Moderate range with Fine Particulates staying mostly in the Good range. 

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to be Good to Low Moderate entering the upcoming weekend. 

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, May 11, 2026

Next forecast update: Friday, May 15, 2026

05/08/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday May 8th, 2026, through Monday May 11th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The first full week of May has come and gone with below average temperatures, but drier conditions compared to recent weeks. The weekend ahead will see a continuation of the current weather regime with slightly warmer temperatures on Saturday for the lower peninsula. For the upper peninsula, a cold front will be making its way through the state this weekend, impacting northern areas first, so cooler temperatures are expected in those areas. With this cold front, winds will be mostly northerly in the upper peninsula, hence the cooler temperatures, while westerly winds will be over the lower peninsula, allowing for temperatures to reach the 60s. Into Sunday morning, the aforementioned front will cross over the entire state, shifting winds to predominantly northerly which will cool off all Michiganders. Pop up rain showers should be expected throughout Saturday afternoon as well with Sunday clear of any rain showers. Monday looks to be almost a copy and paste of Sunday with temperatures in the upper-40s to mid-50s and clear skies.

For air quality, Ozone continues to be a non-issue due to cooler temperatures. For fine particulate matter, northerly flow in the latter half of the weekend will clean out any residual Moderate concentrations that occur. Any Moderate concentration that pop ups will be in the low-Moderate range due to shifting winds, lack of localized wildfire smoke, and relatively clean air.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

A temperature increase is on the horizon starting mid-next week. Air quality looks to remain in the Good range for the majority of next week.

Next Forecast update: Monday, May 11th, 2026

05/01/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday May 4th, 2026, through Friday May 8th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

PM2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Spring Strikes Back! At least for today, Monday, as southerly flow brings in warmer air and mostly sunny skies. On the back end of this Star Wars Day is a cold front and associated Low-pressure system which will eclipse Michigan while cooling us down and initiating rain showers across the state. West-Northwest winds will dominate the weather regime with surface temperatures lingering in the low-to-mid 50s for the majority of the week. Mid-week is expected to be mostly dry with rain chances returning for the latter half of the work week on Friday, but as of now, rain will only impact southern portions of Michigan.

For air quality, Monday will be highest day for concentrations due to warmer temperatures and southerly flow. Both Ozone and PM2.5 will cross over into the Moderate range, mostly in the more populated areas of Detroit and Grand Rapids, but wind shifts this week, along with a decrease in temperatures, will bring air quality concentrations back into the Good range.

May the forecast be with you.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Slight temperature increases are on the horizon for the weekend ahead. Air quality will remain in the Good range.

Next Forecast update: Friday May 8th, 2026

04/24/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, April 24, 2026 through Monday, April 27, 2026

 Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are expected to be Good (AQI Green) to scattered Moderate (AQI Yellow) throughout the forecast period.

 PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) to scattered Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

 After a sneak peek into upcoming summer weather during the past few days, things will return to more seasonal conditions for the weekend.  Showers, and possible a thunderstorm, is the forecast for Friday as a cold front tracks across the state.  Potential precipitation amounts increase during the day as more moisture moves into the area with a potential up to 1.25 inches in the eastern half of the state.

 Following the cold front, the weekend looks pleasant and dry with temperatures in the upper 60’s with dew points in the 40’s.  A good weekend to get early Spring yard work done.  The next chance for rain comes from a low-pressure system moving our direction from the plains region.  Models indicate precipitation arriving Monday afternoon and evening with rainfall potential around 1.5 inches.

 The warmer weather of the past couple of days pushed ozone values into the High Moderate range. Following the Friday cold front, generally, Good Air Quality is expected throughout the state mixed with scattered Moderates. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to be mostly Good entering the upcoming work week. 

Next forecast update: Monday, April 27, 2026

04/20/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, April 20, 2026 through Friday, April 24, 2026

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are expected to be Good (AQI Green) throughout the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) to scattered Moderate (AQI Yellow) throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

After all the wet and stormy weather which has plagued most of April to this point, Michigan is in for a much quieter and tranquil week with a chance to begin drying out.  Monday did start out rather cold (i.e. multiple freeze warnings) but should rebound by mid-week.  Southwesterly flow returns on Tuesday and that will mark the beginning of milder and less dry air. 

The warmest temperatures should arrive by Wednesday with Thursday likely the warmest day of the week with temperatures in the mid-70’s.  Light northeasterly winds on Wednesday should keep Air Quality in the Good range but winds shifting more southerly by Thursday could result in scattered Moderate conditions.  Fortunately, with the heavy winter snowpack to our north, wildfires are yet to become a concern.  Only small, controlled fires are currently reported in the far western Provinces.

Mostly sunny skies during Wednesday and Thursday should provide a good opportunity for drying out and high river levels to begin dropping.  A weak cold front is projected to move through Michigan on Friday bringing a chance of showers and thunderstorms.

Generally, mostly Good Air Quality is expected throughout the state with only a chance of scattered Moderates during mid-week. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to continue to be mostly Good entering the upcoming weekend. 

 Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, April 20, 2026

04/17/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday April 17th, 2026, through Monday April 20th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

One of Michigan’s mottos, Water Wonderland, surely lived up to its name this week as numerous rounds of storms and rain showers impacted the entire state. In the north, warm temperatures are accelerating the melting of snow which is compounding the flooding risk along with the inches of rain we have all seen and walked in. Today, Friday, however, will see a slight break in precipitation as soon as the morning fog dissipates and gives way to clear skies Friday afternoon. Across the state, 60s and 70s will be felt with light southerly winds. Mother Nature looks to have one last push of rain for the week, though, with a Low-pressure system making its way through the state Friday evening through the day on Saturday. Persistent rain will be mostly overnight and into Saturday morning with more scattered rain showers in the afternoon. On the backside of this pressure system is a cold front which will drop our temperatures into the 30s and 40s for Sunday but clearing skies will be a nice consolation. Monday looks to continue this trend of dry conditions, but cooler temperatures.

Air quality will remain in the Good to low-Moderate range as rain and change in wind direction continue to persist throughout the weekend.

With warmer temperatures becoming more frequent, and summer on the horizon, increases in Ozone and wildfire season may warrant issuances of Air Quality Alerts. We will only be issuing Air Quality Alerts for Ozone, PM2.5, or both, going forward when we expect concentrations to reach or exceed the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups, Unhealthy, Very Unhealthy, or Hazardous Air Quality Index ranges. Within these Alerts, we will specify which pollutant the Alert is for, what Air Quality Index category is expected, and the timing and area that is being impacted. For more information on Air Quality Alerts, the Air Quality Index, and how to sign up for Alert notifications, click here.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Warmer temperatures return next week after a few days of cooler temperatures. Air quality will remain in the Good range.

Next Forecast update: Monday April 20th, 2026

04/13/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday April 13th, 2026, through Friday April 17th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The traditional idiom of “April showers bring May flowers” will be put to the test this week as numerous rounds of rain will impact the Great Lakes state. Flood watches and warnings are popping up around the state, mainly in the northern half due to snowmelt accompanying the heavy rainfall. The precipitation will be brought in through several systems crossing over the region this week along with a frontal boundary sitting over the state. In between raindrops, however, southerly flow will dominate the wind direction regime which will provide surface temperatures well into the 70s for the southern portion of the state while northern portions will hang around the upper-40s to 50s. Light to moderately breezy conditions will be felt throughout the week as the Low-pressure systems move in and out of the region.

For air quality this week, the rain showers along with consistent change in airmass will help to keep overall air quality Good with some increases into the Moderate range. Southerly flow typically brings increases of PM-2.5, but the rain will keep it limited to small increases in more populated areas like Detroit and Grand Rapids. Although winds will be predominantly southerly, persistent wind speeds will prevent stagnation so there is expected to be ample dispersion of particulates. Some southerly areas may make a run at 80-degrees tomorrow, Tuesday, so the potential return of Moderate Ozone may be on the horizon. That could be said throughout this week as well due to temperatures expected to remain in the 70s for southern areas. However, with the rain and persistent clouds, Ozone development will be inhibited due to the lack of sunlight needed to initiate the photochemical reaction. Areas near and around Detroit and Grand Rapids may see hourly concentrations increase just over the Moderate range but are not expected to persist.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

More of the same for the weekend ahead as warm temperatures and rain continue into the weekend. A cool down is on the docket for Sunday as a rather strong cold front moves through. Air quality is expected to remain in the Good range.

Next Forecast update: Friday April 17th, 2026

04/13/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday April 13th, 2026, through Friday April 17th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The traditional idiom of “April showers bring May flowers” will be put to the test this week as numerous rounds of rain will impact the Great Lakes state. Flood watches and warnings are popping up around the state, mainly in the northern half due to snowmelt accompanying the heavy rainfall. The precipitation will be brought in through several systems crossing over the region this week along with a frontal boundary sitting over the state. In between raindrops, however, southerly flow will dominate the wind direction regime which will provide surface temperatures well into the 70s for the southern portion of the state while northern portions will hang around the upper-40s to 50s. Light to moderately breezy conditions will be felt throughout the week as the Low-pressure systems move in and out of the region.

For air quality this week, the rain showers along with consistent change in airmass will help to keep overall air quality Good with some increases into the Moderate range. Southerly flow typically brings increases of PM-2.5, but the rain will keep it limited to small increases in more populated areas like Detroit and Grand Rapids. Although winds will be predominantly southerly, persistent wind speeds will prevent stagnation so there is expected to be ample dispersion of particulates. Some southerly areas may make a run at 80-degrees tomorrow, Tuesday, so the potential return of Moderate Ozone may be on the horizon. That could be said throughout this week as well due to temperatures expected to remain in the 70s for southern areas. However, with the rain and persistent clouds, Ozone development will be inhibited due to the lack of sunlight needed to initiate the photochemical reaction. Areas near and around Detroit and Grand Rapids may see hourly concentrations increase just over the Moderate range but are not expected to persist.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

More of the same for the weekend ahead as warm temperatures and rain continue into the weekend. A cool down is on the docket for Sunday as a rather strong cold front moves through. Air quality is expected to remain in the Good range.

Next Forecast update: Friday April 17th, 2026

04/10/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday April 10th, 2026, through Monday April 13th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Michiganders woke up to overcast skies, and rain showers in the southern portion of the state this Friday morning as a Low-pressure system moves across the Great Lakes. This system will make its way eastward this afternoon which will open the door for a High-pressure system to move in for Saturday. We will dry out during the day on Saturday with temperatures ranging in the 50s across the state with plenty of sunshine, thanks to the High-pressure. Unfortunately, though, this will be short lived as another system moves in Saturday night into Sunday which will bring more rain, but warmer temperatures. A warm front will provide precipitation along with southerly flow which will push temperatures into the 70s for the lower peninsula and the upper-50s to 60s for the upper peninsula. This warm front will keep winds in the southerly direction which will keep our temperatures in the 60s and 70s to start next week.

For air quality, low-Moderate PM-2.5 concentrations can be expected later today, Friday, and into Saturday as winds shift around from southeasterly to southwesterly. These concentrations are only expected in the southern portions of the lower peninsula, more specifically in the Detroit and Grand Rapids areas. Once the front moves in with the rain on Sunday, concentrations should decrease into the Good range.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Warmer temperatures hang around early next week with multiple rounds of rain. Air quality is expected to be in the Good range.

Next Forecast update: Monday April 13th, 2026

04/06/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday April 6th, 2026, through Friday April 10th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range later in the week.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

We start off the first full week of April with surface temperatures expected to be at or below normal today, Monday, due to persistent northerly flow. After a rather wet period in the latter half of last week and this past weekend, this week will see a decrease in precipitation for the majority of the week with Thursday and into Friday seeing the most amount of precipitation. First, however, a cold front crossed over Michigan in the overnight hours which shifted winds to northerly flow, as mentioned above. Going into Tuesday, High-pressure sets up over Wisconsin which will clear the skies and lighten the winds, while keeping us below average for surface temperatures. The warming trend starts on Wednesday as winds shift to southerly flow, bringing in warmer air, but will also present some precipitation for the northern half of the state. A wintry mix is expected throughout the day on Wednesday before turning to mostly rain on Thursday. This system will give way to Friday’s system which will impact the entire state with rain as temperature return to the 50s and 60s thanks to a warm front crossing over the state.

For air quality, northerly flow and cooler temperatures for the first half of the week will help to keep concentrations Good. As we get into the latter half of this work week, winds shifting to southerly flow may pose an increase of PM-2.5 into the low-Moderate range. However, rain showers on Thursday and Friday will keep any increases at bay. We typically start to see some Ozone increases in the month of April. This week does not look like it will be a week for Ozone as temperatures will still be too cool. Although, our eyes are now slowly starting to focus more on Ozone development as the temperatures warm.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The warming trend continues into the weekend as Good to low-Moderate air quality is expected.

Next Forecast update: Friday April 10th, 2026

04/03/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, April 3, 2026 through Monday, April 6, 2026

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are expected to be Good (AQI Green) throughout the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) throughout the forecast period.

A bit more noisy weather is expected, Friday tonight, as another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected from tonight into Saturday.  This is due to a warm front that will track back northward into the area bringing 60-degree temperatures for Saturday.  The possibility of a few stronger storms in Southern Lower Michigan exists from tonight into early Saturday afternoon.  Additional rainfall could be on the order of a half to one inch

Following the passage of an associated cold front late Saturday, weather turns colder as winter refuses to totally relent.  Temperature decreases may be just cold enough for a little bit of lake effect snow.  Highs will be in the low to mid 40s for the remainder of the weekend and into early next week.

 Temperatures should rebound by mid-week with chances for rain to return to the forecast. I am expecting temperature to reach the 50s for highs by mid-week, which is normal for this time of year.

 Winter is not over but Spring is building momentum.  On a positive note, Good Air Quality is expected throughout the state, and the trend should continue into next week. 

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to continue to be mostly Good entering the upcoming work week. 

03/30/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday March 30th, 2026, through Friday April 3rd, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Spring has sprung! Or at least for today, Monday, and tomorrow, Tuesday, as high temperatures are expected to approach 70 degrees in southern Michigan. The upper peninsula is hanging around seasonal norms for this time of the year due to a frontal boundary lingering in the Straits of Mackinac. This is causing warm air to be brought into southern Michigan via southerly flow, whereas the upper peninsula is under northerly flow, keeping their temperatures cooler. Our temperatures, statewide, homogenize come Wednesday however after the passing of a cold front on Tuesday which will bring ample amounts of rain, snow flurries, and temperatures nearing seasonal averages. This will be the first round of precipitation as more mixed precipitation is expected on Thursday with rain, freezing rain, and snow all expected throughout the day as another Low-pressure and front moves through the state. Once the system exits the state, Friday slowly becomes quieter in terms of precipitation, although there may be some breezy conditions as the pressure gradient in between systems balances out.

For air quality, the highest expected day for PM-2.5 concentrations this week will be today, Monday, and into Tuesday before the front and rain moves through. Today in southern Michigan there will be southerly flow which will help to increase fine particulate, along with lighter winds in the morning hours. Winds pick up slightly Monday afternoon which will keep any increases at bay, but low-to-mid Moderate concentrations should be expected for most of the day. Once the front and precipitation move through on Tuesday and early Wednesday morning, any substantial build up of PM-2.5 will be cleaned out as a change in airmass will bring cleaner air. The presence of multiple systems moving through this week along with change in wind direction will help keep air quality mostly Good for the week ahead.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The first weekend of April will see another system moving through with additional precipitation across the state. This will help keep air quality Good.

Next Forecast update: Friday April 3rd, 2026

03/27/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday March 27th, 2026, through Monday March 30th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

After a flurry of mixed precipitation yesterday, March 26th, with snow in the north and steady rain in the south, us Michiganders get a break in weather for the weekend ahead. Aside from a slight disturbance potentially bringing light precipitation overnight tonight and Saturday night, High pressure slides in Saturday morning which will clear the skies but may bring breezy conditions come Saturday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will increase throughout this weekend as well with the mid-30s to mid-40s on the docket for Saturday and the mid-40s to mid-50s on Sunday. The warmth will continue early next week, at least for southern Michigan, as the 60s look to make a return.

For air quality, the breezy conditions and change in wind direction will help to keep our current airmass continuously clean and prevent any PM-2.5 buildup. At the tail end of this weekend and into early next week, there may be a slight increase of PM-2.5 into the low-Moderate range as southerly flow returns and wind speeds start to slow down. However, overall air quality this weekend is expected to be in the Good range. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

A run at the 70s looks possible on Tuesday along with the potential of heavy rain. Air quality will remain in the Good to low-Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Monday March 30th, 2026

03/23/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday March 23rd, 2026, through Friday March 27th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

We enter the last full week of March on a relatively quiet note, aside from a few lake-enhanced showers this Monday morning, as High-pressure will slide in going into tomorrow, Tuesday. Seasonal normal temperatures are expected this week with a few days above seasonal averages due to a warm front and southwesterly flow. The peak in temperatures will be Thursday for the lower peninsula as the 60s make a return, but a stubborn stationary front will sit near the Straits of Mackinac and cause the upper peninsula to hang around the mid-30s. Accompanying this front, which will move over the state Friday morning, will be mixed precipitation at times with rain as the main precipitation type. With the passing of this front, winds will shift back to north-northwesterly, cooling the lower peninsula back down into the 40s and near seasonal norms.

Air quality will be ebb-and-flowing this week with the passing of fronts, shifting winds and light winds when the High-pressure moves in. With the southwesterly winds on Wednesday and into Thursday, PM-2.5 concentrations should be expected to increase into the Moderate range for lower Michigan. As the aforementioned frontal boundary moves through the state come Friday, however, those concentrations are expected to decrease. Along with the wind shift, precipitation will help to clean out the atmosphere with a good airmass change.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The weekend ahead looks mostly clear of any systems with High-pressure lingering to the south. Temperatures will be around seasonal norms and air quality is expected to be in the Good range.

Next Forecast update: Friday March 27th, 2026

03/20/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, March 20, 2026 - Monday, March 23, 2026

PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will begin the forecast period mostly Moderate (Yellow AQI) with improving early next week.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A weak system moving through Michigan brought light precipitation early Friday. High pressure will build in, keeping conditions mostly dry to start the weekend. Temperatures will warm Friday into Saturday as southerly winds develop. Forecast models indicate the next weather system could bring precipitation to northern Michigan as early as Saturday, while central and southern areas remain dry and warm for this time of year. This pattern changes late Saturday into Sunday as a boundary sinks south through the state, allowing precipitation and cooler winds to return for the start of the new week.

Air quality begins in the Moderate range, and most locations are expected to remain Moderate on Saturday due to high pressure and warmer southerly winds. Any buildup of fine particulate should improve after the frontal passage on Sunday as northerly winds return to the region.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show high pressure and dry conditions for Monday. If the current forecast pans out, a small increase in fine particulate may occur.  Air quality early next week is expected to range from the upper Good to low Moderate.

 Next Forecast update: Monday, March 23, 2026

03/16/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, March 16, 2026 - Friday, March 20, 2026

PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will average mostly Good (Green AQI) with some Moderate (Yellow AQI) possible past mid-week.

 FORECAST DISCUSSION:

 Winter is having a hard time letting go, especially across northern Michigan, where a blizzard is hitting early this week. Other parts of the state are dealing with mixed precipitation that will transition to snow as strong northwest winds drive temperatures downward through the day Monday. Travel is expected to be difficult to impossible across northern areas, so anyone planning to head out Monday or Tuesday should check local conditions.

 Snow tapers off from west to east later today, but gusty winds will continue to reduce visibility due to blowing snow, particularly in the north. Lake-effect snow showers are expected to persist on Tuesday, though high pressure moving in from the west should bring a brief period of drier weather from late Tuesday to early Wednesday. Another weak system will drop in from the northwest Wednesday into Thursday, bringing light precipitation. Forecast models indicate a warm-up and drier conditions toward the end of the week.

 Air quality starts off Good thanks to the strong, gusty northwest flow. Northwest winds persist into Tuesday, helping maintain Good conditions. By mid‑week, winds weaken and shift to a more southerly direction, which could allow fine particulate levels to rise into the Moderate range.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models indicate dry conditions to begin the weekend. However, another storm system may track east of the region early next week. Most of the associated precipitation may miss Michigan, but the resulting northwest winds should help bring in Good air quality early next week.

Next Forecast update: Friday, March 20, 2026

03/13/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, March 13, 2026 through Monday, March 16, 2026

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

A bit of a messy weekend is on tap leading up to St. Patrick’s Day early next week.  Friday’s weather is showing some accumulating snowfall moving in later this morning through midday, with the highest accumulations of 2-4 inches confined to areas along/north of M-46.  This is due to strong low-pressure system, which will continue to track across the Great Lakes region passing over northern lower Michigan Friday afternoon.  The most noticeable feature of Friday’s weather will likely be strong winds due to a very strong low level wind field.  This will bring the highest potential of winds gusts to 40-45 mph, or greater, by early afternoon as winds shift from southwest to west.

Seasonably cool air filters back into the region with drier and much less windy conditions, Saturday, with chilly daytime temperatures likely not reaching 40 degrees.

An active weather pattern returns Saturday night through Sunday with another system set to impact much of the Great Lake’s region.  Fortunately, the southern half of the Lower Peninsula should miss the heaviest snowfall which could bring over 2 feet of snow for portions of northern Lower and the Upper Peninsula.  Snow potential is still 1-2 inches in the southern lower, however.  There is also potential for ice accumulation from freezing rain in Central Michigan Sunday through Sunday night with some computer model solutions producing over a quarter- inch of ice.

Behind the backside of the low, during Monday, a change over to lake-enhanced snow and strong winds is expected, with Southwest Michigan getting in on continued winter weather impacts.  Prolonged heavy snow will also be possible across northern or central Lake Huron, pending the final track of the system.

Winter is not over but Spring is just around the corner.  On a positive note, Good Air Quality is expected throughout the state, and the trend should continue into early next week. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Qulity is expected to continue to be mostly Good entering the upcoming work week.

03/09/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, March 9, 2026 through Friday, March 13, 2026

 PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) with scattered Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) throughout the forecast period.

  FORECAST DISCUSSION

 The week begins with Good Air Quality throughout the state, and the trend should continue through the majority of the work week.  The quiet, tranquil weather we see Monday morning should persist into Tuesday morning with the potential for severe weather Tuesday evening into Tuesday night.  The Storm Prediction Center has increased our chance of severe weather bumping the threat from a marginal to a slight chance.

 Locally heavy rain looks more than possible from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.  We are likely looking at swaths of one to possibly two inches of rain especially from I-96 to the south.  Rivers are higher now given recent rains so additional precipitation will likely push quite a few river basin locations to near flood stage.

 This is Michigan and just because March has arrived does not mean winter is over.  A potent clipper system is expected to sweep from west to east through the area Thursday night into Friday.  Accumulating snow is potentially expected across Central Lower Michigan with this system, albeit warming surface conditions should keep it to a minimum.

 A preview of the weekend shows seasonable temperatures in the lower 40’s with a chance of rain/snow shower activity.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to continue to be mostly Good entering the upcoming weekend. 

03/06/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday March 6th, 2026, through Monday March 9th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Above average temperatures and rainy conditions are on the docket for the start of this first weekend in March. Many of us Michiganders woke up this Friday morning to foggy conditions with temperatures ranging from the mid-30s to mid-40s with the southwestern part of the state currently sitting in a warm sector of air. This is due to a lifting warm front which will cross over the lower peninsula through the day today and into tomorrow, Saturday. With it, there is the potential for storms Friday evening and early Saturday morning. Aside from storm potential, essentially all of Michigan will have seen a good, soaking rain come Saturday evening once the low-pressure system carrying the frontal boundary exits to the east. Once out of the area, we start to dry out later into the evening on Saturday with slightly cooler temperatures and breezy conditions. As a gift from Mother Nature though, Michiganders will wake up Sunday to clearing skies and increasing temperatures into the mid-40s to mid-to-upper-50s. This warming trend continues into Monday with the 60s making a return to the lower peninsula and the 40s for the upper peninsula due to a cold front lingering in the straits area.

For air quality, Friday will see the highest PM-2.5 concentrations in the mid-Moderate range, leftover from stagnant morning conditions. Once winds pick up and surface heating helps to break up the inversion in place, PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to decrease as the aforementioned front moves in Friday afternoon. The rain on Friday evening and Saturday morning will help to continually decrease PM-2.5 concentrations even more along with wind direction which will shift to more northwesterly flow come Saturday evening. The combination of rain and wind direction shifts will drop concentrations down and overall air quality is expected to be in the Good range come Saturday evening and through Sunday. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Warmer temperatures start off the next work week with air quality remaining in the Good range.

Next Forecast update: Monday March 9th, 2026