10/05/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, October 5th, 2026, through Friday, October 9th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) range.

PM2.5:

PM2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) range to scattered Moderate (Yellow AQI).

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

As we enter the first full week of October, we are expecting ideal Fall weather with sunny, comfortable days and chilly nights.  Color changes in the leaves are accelerating, and frost is possible as you move further north. 

With limited moisture this week, dry conditions are expected to persist into the weekend.  The best chances for any precipitation will occur Tuesday night and Wednesday morning ahead of a mostly dry front passing during Wednesday.  Otherwise, expect dry, sunny conditions, ideal for outdoor activities.

As for Air Quality, I expect conditions to be as good as the weather, itself.  Ozone is essentially a non-issue, this time of year, with the shorter, dry days and cooler nights.  The formal ozone season wraps up at the end of October.  Fine particulates should not pose any issues, although with the clear nights, the nocturnal inversion may temporarily trap particulates near the surface during the morning hours before the sun breaks it up.

As such, I expect ozone to remain the Good range with Fine Particulates also mostly Good with a few scattered Moderates during the morning hours.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good to begin the upcoming weekend.

Next Forecast update: Friday, October 9th, 2026

10/02/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday October 2nd, 2026, through Monday October 5th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) range.

PM2.5:

PM2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The first weekend of October is upon us Michiganders, and Pure Michigan fall weather will be felt across the state. After a few days of on and off rain, the cold front that brought in the rain has now moved off to the east with high-pressure, and cooler temperatures, moving in behind it. Today, Friday, will see temperatures ranging from the mid-50s to mid-60s, as winds have shifted to a more north-northwesterly direction. This weather pattern will persist into Saturday with the high-pressure moving more so over the state, providing clear skies for the majority of the Great Lakes. As we move more into Saturday evening and into Sunday morning, another pressure system, a Low and cold front, will traverse from west to east just to our north, which will bring spotty rain showers mostly for the upper peninsula and northern lower peninsula areas. Sunday will not be a complete washout, as Sunday afternoon will start to see clearing as the rain moves off to the east.

For air quality, cooler temperatures and predominantly northerly winds will provide us Michiganders with clean air and Good air quality. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

True fall weather will be felt next week with a high-pressure moving in on Monday and temperatures remaining in the 50s and 60s. Air quality is expected to remain in the Good range.

Next Forecast update: Monday October 5th, 2026

09/28/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday September 28th, 2026, through Friday October 2nd, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The last few days of September will see high pressure dominating the weather regime as clear skies and temperatures ranging in the 60s and 70s will be felt across Michigan. Tuesday will be almost a copy and paste of today, Monday, as we do not start to see a change in weather until Wednesday. This is when a frontal boundary will move into the Great Lakes, Wednesday into Thursday, bringing rain and the potential of a few rumbles of thunder. On the backside of the front will be cooler temperatures ranging from the 50s and 60s. The trend that sets up on Thursday looks to persist through the first weekend of October.

For air quality, the Ozone season is quickly coming to an end as temperatures cool and the sun angle, along with intensity, decreases. Ozone will remain in the Good range for the remainder of this week. PM2.5 will see a slight increase in the Moderate range on Wednesday and Thursday with the passing of the aforementioned front. This will be due to winds shifting to a more southerly direction as the front, and rain, move through. On the backside of the front, winds will shift back to north-northwesterly which will bring in cleaner air.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

As of now, the weekend ahead looks to be a continuation of the latter half of the work week: temperatures in the 50s and 60s with partly cloudy skies. Air quality is expected to be in the Good range.

Next Forecast update: Friday October 2nd, 2026

09/25/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, September 25, 2026 – Monday, September 28, 2026

PM-2.5: Concentrations will range mostly Good (Green AQI) with low-Moderates (Yellow AQI) possible late in the period.

Ozone: 8-hour average concentrations in the Good (Green AQI) will persist.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A quiet and pleasant stretch of weather continues as high pressure remains in control across the region. Expect seasonable early‑fall temperatures and dry conditions through the weekend and into next week. Skies will stay mostly clear, with cool mornings and comfortable afternoons. Our next chance for rain arrives around mid‑week. Until then, enjoy the beautiful early fall weather.

Air quality has been in the Good category over the past week, and that trend is expected to continue. Dry conditions and low humidity will help maintain mostly Good air quality through the forecast period.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air quality is expected to range from Good to low Moderate as we progress into next week.

Next Forecast update: Monday, September 28, 2026

09/21/2026 Air Quality Forecast (Copy)

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, September 21, 2026 – Friday, September 25, 2026

PM-2.5: Concentrations will range mostly Good (Green AQI) with low-Moderates (Yellow AQI) possible late in the period.

Ozone: 8-hour average concentrations in the Good (Green AQI) will persist.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Dry weather returns today, Monday, as high pressure settles north of Lake Superior, setting up a cooler, quiet week. Winds begin out of the northeast and shift to the east mid‑week. High temperatures in the low to mid‑60s, will warm toward 70 late in the workweek. Lows drop into the 30s in northern areas and the 40s elsewhere.

Air quality will stay mostly in the Good range this week. Ozone remains low thanks to cooler temperatures and reduced daylight. Fine particulates stay at Good levels with northeast to east winds, though southern areas may briefly reach low‑Moderate later in the week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air quality is expected to remain Good to low Moderate during the upcoming weekend.

Next Forecast update: Friday, September 25, 2026

09/11/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday September 11th, 2026, through Monday September 14th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range, with the potential of hourly Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Orange AQI) concentrations.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

High pressure is currently sitting over southeast Michigan providing lights winds and ample sunlight this Friday morning. This system will slowly move to the east as today carries on but clear skies and temperatures in the 70s should be expected throughout the day. Saturday looks to provide a slight warm up into the low-80s as a warm front just clips the southern portions of Michigan and turns the winds to a more southwesterly direction. This frontal boundary may pop-up scattered rain showers in the morning hours, but nothing to cancel plans over as they are expected to be light, if any produce. Later on, Saturday evening, the next frontal boundary, a cold front, will move across the state from the west, which will bring our temperatures back down to where they were on Friday with the exception of the upper peninsula which will see temperatures hanging around the 60s. With the cold front passing through, winds will shift to a north-northwesterly direction which will carry into Monday before shifting more to the east.

For air quality, southerly flow tomorrow will allow for PM2.5 concentrations to increase into the low-Moderate range. With the shifting winds on Sunday, especially from the north, cleaner air will be present allowing for PM2.5 concentrations to decrease into the Good range. Ozone, on the other hand, looks like it wants to increase tomorrow, Saturday, for portions of southwest Michigan. Today, Friday, looks like it may be what we call a “ramp-up day” where precursors of Ozone gather and weather conditions that are conducive to Ozone development start to come into place. On Saturday, with the shifting winds to the southwest, these ingredients in place may allow for Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG) concentrations of Ozone to develop in the southwest corner of Michigan along the Lake Michigan shoreline. The only kicker to this set up is the amount of clouds that produce in that corner of the state. Michigan will be between two systems tomorrow, one with the aforementioned warm front, the other with the cold front coming on Sunday. So, the potential of clouds will increase throughout the day on Saturday as both systems and fronts make their way east. As of now, it looks like southwest Michigan will see scattered to overcast skies for much of the morning, before clearing in the mid-to-late afternoon. It will be interesting to see how long the clouds last, if they produce, and how the duration of the clouds inhibits the development of Ozone. If the clouds last longer, the atmospheric reaction that produces Ozone will be delayed until more sunlight makes it to the surface. If there is a lack of clouds, then Ozone may produce quicker and sooner than expected. With these uncertainties in place, along with it being September and the sun angle along with sun intensity being lower, I am expecting the Ozone 8-hour average to be in the mid-high Moderate range on Saturday. As mentioned above though, USG concentrations for a few hours cannot be ruled out.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

A slight cool down is on the docket for next week with air quality in the Good range.

Next Forecast update: Monday September 14th, 2026

09/8/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday September 8th, 2026, through Friday September 11th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The first full week of September commenced with clear skies yesterday, Monday, with moderate temperatures in the 70s to low-80s. Today, Tuesday, will continue that trend for most of the state, however, northern portions, especially the upper peninsula, will see rain showers throughout the day. This rain will slowly move to southern portions of the state later today and into Wednesday. This is due to a low-pressure system well to our north in Canada but an associated cold front trekking through the Great Lakes, nonetheless. On the backside of the frontal boundary, Thursday, will see high-pressure across the region which will open the skies back up through Saturday, before another system moves through the Great Lakes.

For air quality, southwesterly flow Tuesday and into Wednesday may present Moderate air quality conditions, especially Tuesday for Ozone. However, as rain moves in, Ozone will dissipate back into the Good range. PM-2.5 concentrations may hang around the Moderate range a little longer through Wednesday before a wind shift on Thursday bringing in cleaner air through Friday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Although it is not a complete washout, rain looks like it will linger around this weekend as systems move through the region. This will help keep air quality in the Good range.

Next Forecast update: Friday September 11th, 2026

09/4/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, September 4, 2026 – Tuesday, September 8, 2026

Ozone: 8-hour average concentrations in the Good (Green AQI) through Sunday with an increase into Moderate (Yellow AQI) early next week.

PM-2.5: Concentrations will range from Good to low-Moderate through the period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

 A wet start to the holiday weekend is underway, with heavy rainfall tracking across the southern half of the Lower Peninsula and lighter, more scattered precipitation elsewhere. Conditions will gradually dry out later Friday into Saturday as the current storm system exits the region and high pressure settles to the northeast. High pressure will then dominate through Labor Day, bringing drier weather and lower humidity, resulting in noticeably more comfortable conditions compared to earlier in the week.

Elevated ozone concentrations were observed across the western Lower Peninsula on Wednesday. While the potential for increased levels had been highlighted in Monday’s forecast, ozone rose higher than typically expected for early September. Hot, muggy conditions were in place, accompanied by Moderate fine particulate levels. Although high humidity generally suppresses ozone formation, fine particulates were likely enhanced by wildfire smoke transported northward from southern states, contributing to the elevated readings.

The Friday weather system and subsequent high pressure should keep ozone levels mostly in the Good range through Sunday. As lighter southerly winds develop Monday into Tuesday, ozone may rise into the Moderate range, particularly across central and southern portions of the state.

Moderate fine particulate readings have been persistent across central and southern parts of the state this past week. Conditions are expected to improve Friday into the weekend as high pressure moves in, shifting winds to a northerly direction. Lingering humidity in southern areas may allow low‑Moderate levels to continue into Friday and early Saturday, but overall Good air quality is anticipated through Sunday. Southerly flow returning early next week may lead to another increase in fine particulate levels across the region. At this time, levels higher than low-Moderate are not expected.

Recent evaluations of wildfire activity in Canada show a noticeable decrease in both the number and intensity of fires from early August to the end of the month. This is encouraging news, but we continue to monitor conditions both in Canada and across the U.S. Smoke model guidance keeps smoke out of the region through this weekend.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

A developing southwesterly flow by Tuesday will bring warmer temperatures through both the surface and upper levels. This warming may allow air quality to reach the Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Tuesday, September 8, 2026

08/31/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, August 31, 2026 – Friday, September 4, 2026

Ozone: 8-hour average concentrations in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range are expected; a small chance for Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG, Orange AQI) exists in the west/southwest Tuesday and Wednesday.

PM-2.5: Concentrations will range from mostly Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Warm, humid weather will continue through mid‑week as a frontal system moves across the region. Periods of showers and thunderstorms are likely, but the timing of each round is uncertain. Any afternoon or early evening sunshine that breaks through the cloud cover could allow ozone levels to rise quickly. Some increases in fine particles are also possible throughout the period. A cold front is expected to move through Wednesday into Thursday. As cooler, cleaner air arrives from the northwest, air quality should improve.

The current weather pattern makes the ozone forecast a bit challenging. Michigan will remain under a warm airmass and a southerly wind flow through Wednesday, conditions that typically support ozone formation. However, frequent chances for showers, clouds, higher humidity, and the shorter daylight period this time of year should help limit how much ozone can develop. Forecast models indicate the potential for rising ozone levels in western and southwestern parts of the state on Tuesday and Wednesday. This could occur if clouds break apart and sunshine returns during the afternoon or early evening. As a result, Moderate ozone levels are being forecast in those areas. While not likely, a brief period of low‑end Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG) is possible if conditions align. Elsewhere across Michigan, ozone is expected to stay in the Good to low‑Moderate range.

Moderate fine particulate readings have been steady across central and southern parts of the state. Increased humidity and persistent southerly winds will likely keep concentrations in the upper Good to mid‑Moderate range through mid‑week. As winds shift to the northwest Thursday into Friday, cleaner air is expected to move in, helping levels improve back toward the Good range.

Recent evaluations of wildfire activity in Canada show a noticeable decrease in both the number and intensity of fires from early August to the end of the month. This is encouraging news, but we continue to monitor conditions closely—both in Canada and across the U.S. Smoke model guidance indicates light plumes drifting over the region at times this week. While impacts appear minimal, we will keep track of any changes that could affect air quality.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good in the extended period.

Next Forecast update: Friday, September 4, 2026

08/28/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, August 28, 2026 through Monday, August 31 2026

PM2.5: 24-hour average fine particulates are expected to be a mix of mostly Good (AQI Green) to scattered Moderate (AQI Yellow).

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are also expected to be a mix of mostly Good (AQI Green) to scattered Moderate (AQI Yellow).

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

As the end of August approaches and the new school year gets under way, one would expect fall temperatures to begin settling in.  However, summer isn’t quite ready to concede as we are looking at a significant warmup, early next week. 

As we get into southwest air flow during the weekend, warmer temperatures and higher dew points will begin filtering into the area.  Current projections have temperatures reaching near 90 degrees Monday through Thursday with the best chances on Tuesday.  Dew points in the high 60’s to near 70 will make it seem like the sweaty middle of summer.  As such, it is likely to see some creep in ozone and fine particulates.  The shorter days should help keep ozone concentrations in check, but I do expect increased chances for Moderate, early in the week.  Fortunately, I do not see any wildfire smoke in the mix, so we should not see numbers beyond Low Moderate.

For the weekend itself, high pressure centered over the region, Friday morning, supports a largely dry forecast. A weak mid-level low-pressure system will pass through the area later Friday bringing a very low chance for some pop-up, isolated showers.

There is a bit more potential in the Sunday night into Monday time frame, but current model projections have the best chances for any precipitation to be across northern lower Michigan,

As for Air Quality during the weekend, I expect ozone to remain mostly in the Good range with a mixture of Good to Moderate for fine particulates.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good to scattered Moderate through the upcoming weekend.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Friday, August 28, 2026

Next forecast update: Monday, August 31, 2026

08/24/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, August 24, 2026 through Friday, August 28, 2026

PM2.5: 24-hour average fine particulates are expected to be a mix of mostly Good (AQI Green) to scattered Moderate (AQI Yellow).

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are also expected to be a mix of mostly Good (AQI Green) to scattered Moderate (AQI Yellow).

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The new school year kicks off a generous amount of pleasant weather to get the kids settled into school.  Similar to last week, Air Quality should be mostly in the Good range for all pollutants.

 Monday morning starts off chilly, but mostly sunny with afternoon high temperatures in the mid-70’s and dew points in a comfortable mid-50’s.  Under a strong high-pressure cell, calm winds and cooler night time temperatures could lead to some significant fog Tuesday morning.

 The best chance for rain, this week, occurs Wednesday into Wednesday night as a warm front lifts across Lower Michigan under an upper air trough.  While severe weather is not indicated, scattered damaging wind gusts are not out of the question Wednesday afternoon and evening.  A few lingering afternoon pop-up showers and thunderstorms could occur on Thursday but most of the area should see sunny skies.

 Models indicate good confidence for slightly more humid and warmer weather Thursday into Friday with dropping dewpoints behind a Friday cold front. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good to scattered Moderate through the upcoming weekend.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, August 24, 2026

Next forecast update: Friday, August 28, 2026

08/21/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, August 21, 2026 through Monday, August 24, 2026

PM2.5: 24-hour average fine particulates are expected to be a mix of mostly Good (AQI Green) to scattered Moderate (AQI Yellow).

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are also expected to be a mix of mostly Good (AQI Green) to scattered Moderate (AQI Yellow).

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Friday starts out with high pressure still in control to our east and will affect our morning weather in Michigan before it departs eastward into the New England states later this afternoon.  We can expect afternoon temperatures to reach the lower 80’s with generally sunny skies, which will decrease by evening as clouds move in courtesy of an approaching cold front.

As clouds thicken overnight, I am expecting approaching precipitation to be somewhat widespread with a chance of some potential convective activity approaching from west to east.  The dynamics are not particularly impressive, so I am not expecting any convective activity to be severe.   Current model projections have been fairly consistent with a gradual west to east shift of precipitation, during Saturday, that should exit the area by evening.

Following the passage of the front, I expect Sunday will be under deep, almost due northerly flow with approaching surface high pressure.  Conditions will be comfortable with temperatures in the mid-70’s and dew points in the upper 50’s.

Air Quality through the weekend is expected to be mostly Good for both Ozone and Fine Particulates.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good to scattered Moderate to start the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Friday, August 21, 2026

Next forecast update: Monday, August 24, 2026

08/17/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday August 17th, 2026, through Friday August 21st, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The middle of August is upon us as schools start to open back up for students and summer slowly starts to transition into Fall. Before the change in seasons, however, summer temperatures will remain in place for the better half of this week. Low-80s to upper-70s will be felt across the state as a few rain chances make an appearance as well. Today, Monday, and tomorrow will have high-pressure dominating the weather regime as clear skies are expected for both days. Come midweek, a frontal boundary and low-pressure system will cross over the state on Wednesday providing rain showers, but not a complete washout. On the backside of this front is another High-pressure which will hang around for the remainder of the work week.

For air quality, Ozone does not look like it will pose a threat with cooler temperatures sprinkled in throughout this week. Also, the rain chances and shift in winds from the aforementioned front moving through on Wednesday will help clean out the atmosphere from any pollutant build up. PM2.5 looks like it will behave as well with Good to low-Moderate concentrations expected. Upper-level wildfire smoke may persist in the skies above this week, but it does look to be thinning out compared to recent weeks.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Another front moves through on Saturday bringing rain with it, but again, a washout is not expected. Air quality will remain in the Good to Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Friday August 21st, 2026

08/14/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, August 14, 2026 – Monday, August 17, 2026

Ozone: 8-hour average concentrations in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range are expected.

PM-2.5: Concentrations will range from Good to Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

An unsettled weekend is expected as a weather system moves through the state. Rain will begin to spread into central and southern areas as early as Friday night, where the highest chances for precipitation will occur. Farther north, rain and storm chances hold off until late Saturday, and coverage will be less widespread. High pressure will then build in to start the new work week, bringing cooler and less humid conditions.

Moderate fine particulate readings have been consistent this week in all but northern locations, and this trend is expected to continue through the weekend. A warm front lifting north and humid conditions in place keep Moderate levels in place both Saturday and Sunday. High pressure and northerly winds on Monday should improve fine particulate back to towards the Good range.

Smoke production remains low from the wildfires across Ontario and northern Minnesota. Additional fires continue farther west in the northwestern United States and farther north into Canada. While smoke from these fires persists across the region, it has generally remained aloft with only minor influence on surface concentrations.

Clouds and periodic precipitation on Saturday and Sunday will limit ozone formation. While southeastern areas may reach Moderate levels on Friday, most locations are expected to remain in the Good range.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The extended forecast begins on a dry note and no significant increases in pollution are anticipated.

Next Forecast update: Monday, August 17, 2026

08/10/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, August 10, 2026 – Friday, August 14, 2026

Ozone: 8-hour average concentrations in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range are expected.

PM-2.5: Concentrations will range from Good to Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A complex of showers and storms moved through southern Michigan early Monday morning and has since shifted east/southeast of the state. A frontal boundary positioned just south of the Michigan border will guide additional systems through the region, keeping on and off precipitation chances in the forecast for much of the week. The best potential for storms will be across southern areas Monday and Tuesday, with more widespread precipitation expected by Wednesday. Drier conditions are anticipated later in the week, though this break may be brief as another system could bring rain back into the forecast over the weekend.

Smoke production remains low from the wildfires across Ontario and northern Minnesota. Additional fires continue farther west in the northwestern United States and farther north into Canada. While smoke from these fires persists across the region, it has generally remained aloft with little influence on surface concentrations, and this trend is expected to continue through much of the week. With a boundary positioned close to the state, some Moderate fine particulate levels may be observed, particularly across southern areas. Overall, fine particulate concentrations this week will range from Good in the north to Moderate in the south. We continue to monitor wildfire activity and smoke plumes daily. Forecast updates will be issued if surface‑level smoke impacts become more likely across the state.

Clouds and periodic precipitation through mid‑week should limit ozone formation. While a few locations may reach Moderate levels, most areas are expected to remain in the Good range through Wednesday. Cooler temperatures and northerly winds later in the week should continue to support Good ozone concentrations.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The extended forecast may begin on a dry note, but precipitation is expected to return for the weekend. No significant increases in pollution are anticipated.

Next Forecast update: Friday, August 14, 2026

08/07/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday August 7th, 2026, through Monday August 10th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The current weather pattern, through Friday evening, features upper air troughing centered over the western Great Lakes with moist, humid conditions. This moist environment, coupled with a somewhat unstable atmosphere, will continue to support chances for scattered showers and isolated storms during the afternoon and early evening hours on Friday.

The main frontal boundary draped across the Plains into the lower Great Lakes will get a push southeast through the area late Friday/early Saturday as the upper air trough finally releases and pushes eastward.  Some computer models are hinting at some severe potential during this time.  If convection potential manages to cross Lake Michigan relatively intact, there is a significant increase for the chances of strong/severe wind gusts.  Following that, I expect a largely dry Saturday afternoon/evening.

The current weather patterns indicate conditions will likely become more favorable for repeated showers and thundershowers across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley Sunday through Tuesday.

Ozone bears watching, however the shorter days, shower potential and overhead smoke layers should reduce the potential for any significant ozone creep.

I want to conclude this forecast with a well-deserved shout-out to Kevin Craig, Chief Meteorologist for Grand Rapids Fox 17.  Last Tuesday was Kevin’s final night on air with Fox 17 and the EGLE forecasters greatly appreciate 25 years of his strong support for our Air Quality program. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to be to range between Good and Moderate to start the next work week.

Next Forecast update: Monday August 10th, 2026

08/03/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday July 31st, 2026, through Monday August 3rd, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

August is upon us as we round off July today, Friday, with clear skies for most of the day with rain moving in this evening and overnight. Michiganders will see temperatures ranging throughout the 80s on this final day of July before taking a dip into the 70s come Saturday. A low-pressure system and associated rain showers will move through the state overnight and into Saturday with stubbornly stagnant showers as we approach Saturday evening. Areas in western and northern Michigan may see upwards of an inch of rain whereas southern and eastern Michigan may land around a half inch or so when the system finally moves off to the east late Saturday night. On Sunday, eastern parts of the state may see lingering showers in the morning and early afternoon but clearing skies will slowly but surely prevail in the latter half of the weekend to start off the next week.

For air quality, with a relatively clean atmosphere currently, Ozone does not look to pose a threat today, even though temperatures will range in the 80s and winds will be south to southwesterly this afternoon. Scattered Moderates for Ozone should be expected however, with some along the Lake Michigan shoreline and metro Detroit potentially approaching the high-Moderate range. Our eyes are still watching wildfires in both Canada and western portions of the US, but fortunately, surface-level wildfire smoke does not look to be an issue this weekend. Upper-level smoke will hang around as it’s been present all of this week but a good clean out of that smoke will occur on Sunday as winds shift to a more northeasterly direction, bringing in relatively cleaner air.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Drier, and clearer conditions are on the horizon with warm temperatures next week. Air quality will remain in the Good to Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Monday August 3rd, 2026

07/29/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Wednesday July 29th, 2026 through Friday July 31st, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

High-pressure dominates the weather regime for the latter half of this week until a frontal boundary moves in as the high-pressure drifts to the east later on Friday. Before then, however, clear skies and temperatures in the 80s to 90s are on the docket today, Wednesday, and tomorrow, Thursday. Originally, Ozone was thought to possibly being an issue on Thursday with winds shifting back to a southerly direction, but the northerly winds we have been under since Tuesday, and lasting through Wednesday, has provided a rather clean atmosphere for us Michiganders. So although conditions will be present for Ozone to start to increase, the overall atmosphere will lack the necessary precursors for Ozone to become an issue. Especially with the potential for rain on Friday into Saturday morning, the airmass we are under will remain rather clean and Good to Moderate for air quality.

Upper-level smoke will hang around for the rest of this week with no indication of any of the smoke making its way to the surface. The wildfires producing this smoke are out west in the Pacific Northwest and into Canada, so there is plenty of distance between the Great Lakes and there for smoke to disperse into the upper atmosphere.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Rain looks to kick off the weekend for a good amount of Michiganders but looks to move off to the east come Sunday. Air quality will remain in the Good to Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Friday July 31st, 2026 

07/27/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday July 27th 2026, through Wednesday July 29th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Hard to believe that this is the last week of July as we are well into the second half of summer with near normal temperatures expected across the state.

Today, Monday, may pose a threat of severe weather across the lower peninsula as a low-pressure system and associated cold front move through from the northwest. This front looks to stall over mid-Michigan come Tuesday and into Wednesday which will hold the wind direction coming from the north in place until a change in airmass, and a high-pressure system moves in on Thursday. Thankfully, numerous rounds of rain have gone over the areas where wildfires are still burning in Canada and Minnesota, so smoke output has become less and less over the past few days. This high-pressure will linger to our south through Friday, which will provide lighter, southerly flow before another front moves through later on Friday. The chances of rain this week will be welcomed, I am sure of, especially since southern Michigan has been rather dry for the past few weeks with numerous areas below their seasonal precipitation norms by an inch or more.

For air quality this week, especially with wildfire smoke output becoming less as of right now, PM2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate range with shifting wind patterns potentially bringing in fine particulates form the south. Upper-level smoke, however, will persist over Michigan for the next couple of days with no expectation of smoke making its way to the surface. This will cause milky, gray skies along with colorful sunrises and sunsets, though. Ozone looks to be in the Good to Moderate range with the numerous chances of rain, frontal boundaries passing through, and change in wind direction all helping to keep the atmosphere clean of Ozone precursors for the first half of the week. As we get into Thursday, conditions may be in place for Ozone to increase, so because of this, the forecast will be updated on Wednesday to get a better look at Thursday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

August starts off the way July ends—seasonal norm temps with a chance of rain. Air quality will be in the Good to Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Wednesday July 29th, 2026

07/25/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Saturday, July 25, 2026 – Monday, July 27, 2026

PM-2.5: Concentrations will range from Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) with the highest levels in the upper peninsula.

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) are expected with the possibility for Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG – Orange AQI).

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A weather system will drop in from the north on Saturday, affecting mainly upper Michigan, while much of the Lower Peninsula stays dry with a good amount of sunshine. As the boundary drifts south through the day, small chances for showers extend farther into the Lower Peninsula Saturday night into early Sunday. There’s still uncertainty regarding how much precipitation will actually develop over the weekend. For now, Sunday appears mostly dry and warm, with higher chances of rain arriving Monday.

Smoke production remains low from ongoing fires across portions of Ontario and northern Minnesota. Recent precipitation in these areas should help limit smoke generation over the next few days. Farther west, several fires continue to burn across the western U.S. and in the central and northwestern provinces of Canada. Resulting smoke plumes are drifting eastward across the Great Lakes region. Only minor surface impacts are expected in this forecast period. Skies will be hazy at times, but PM2.5 concentrations exceeding the Moderate range are not anticipated. We will continue to monitor the wildfires and associated smoke through the weekend.

Ozone levels rose Friday but stayed in the low‑Moderate range. With sun and a warm southerly flow today, more widespread Moderate readings are expected. Forecast confidence decreases for Sunday and Monday due to uncertain precipitation, cloud cover, and minor surface smoke. Hourly ozone may briefly reach USG on Sunday, but 8‑hour values should remain Moderate. Increased clouds and better rain chances Monday should keep ozone from rising above Moderate. Conditions will be monitored and the forecast updated if higher levels become likely.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

We will continue to monitor the weather and smoke forecasts closely to determine whether any increase in pollution may warrant future Air Quality Alerts.

Next Forecast update: Monday, July 27, 2026