1/18/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Friday, January 18th, 2019 through Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A storm system will be passing south of the state Friday/Saturday. The track is close enough to bring snow later Friday into Saturday with the heaviest accumulations south towards the state border. Winds will be from a northeasterly direction much of Friday into Saturday keeping fine particulate levels mostly Good. Lighter winds earlier Friday could allow for a few monitors to hit low-end Moderate in the southeast; otherwise fine particulate will be Good.

On Sunday, high pressure starts settling in from the northwest, however, what should be noted is the cold air filtering in Saturday night into Sunday. Highs Sunday will struggle to reach the teens in the southern portions of the state with colder temperatures as you go north. Wind chills will be below zero at times so precautions should be taken if spending time outdoors to prevent frostbite. The cold temperatures will linger through Martin Luther King Day on Monday. Northerly winds Sunday should keep fine particulate Good, but winds weaken Monday as high pressure settles overhead. This could allow for some low-Moderates, generally in the more urban areas of the southeast.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models still show a storm system approaching the Great Lakes region Tuesday into Wednesday. This has the potential to be a strong winter storm; however, the exact track and strength isn’t certain this far out; it is something to keep an eye on. As for fine particulate, increasing southerly winds as the storm approaches should keep fine particulate from increasing much; readings Tuesday will range from middle Good to low-Moderate.

FORECAST UPDATED BY STEPHANIE HENGESBACH: FRIDAY, JANUARY 18, 2019
Next forecast update: Tuesday, January 22nd, 2019

1/14/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, January 14th, 2019 through Friday, January 18th, 2019

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will range between Good and Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

After a quiet Monday, an active weather period looks to develop with on and off systems the rest of the week. A weak system could bring some freezing drizzle on a southwest wind early Tuesday and a cold front follows suit passing through early Wednesday. This boundary could also bring light snow and/or freezing drizzle. On Thursday, a storm passes through the Ohio River Valley as another system tracks north of Lake Superior. Both systems could bring snow to parts of the state. There will be a short lull Friday before a stronger storm brings snow, and then cold temperatures, for the weekend.

As for air quality, lighter winds turning southwest Monday will allow for a mix of Good and Moderate fine particulate. This mix of Good and Moderates will continue until the cold front passes early Wednesday. Good levels are expected late Wednesday into Thursday. Low-Moderates may creep in Friday with lighter winds in place. The best chance for Moderate readings will be in the more urban parts of the state.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show a stronger storm passing just south of the state Saturday; however, the track will be close enough to bring accumulating snow. There is some uncertainty with its exact track, but what remains certain is cold conditions will develop early next week. With Martin Luther King Jr. Day being observed next Monday, this forecast will be updated Friday to detail expected air quality conditions through the holiday.

FORECAST UPDATED BY STEPHANIE HENGESBACH: MONDAY, January 14, 2019

Next forecast update: Friday, January 18th, 2019

1/7/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, January 7th, 2018 through Monday, January 14th, 2019

PM-2.5:  24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will be generally Good during the work week then Good to Low Moderate during the weekend.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Michigan will experience warm air advection during Monday and a portion of Tuesday, prior to a cold front passage.  Although Air Quality is Good early Monday, a slow creep into the Low Moderate range would not be unexpected with the warmer, and more moist winds.

Following the passing of the front Tuesday morning, winds will transition to the west, then northwest, cleaning out any residual Moderate readings.  Good conditions should persist through the remainder of the work week.

The next chance of Moderate conditions will likely occur during the late Friday/early Saturday time frame when winds become calm and gradually become more southeasterly.  Winds should turn northeasterly, early Sunday, then westerly to finish the weekend.  Good Air Quality should return to the region, at that time.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, January 7th, 2019

Next forecast update: Monday, January 14th, 2019

1/2/2019 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Wednesday, January 2nd, 2019 through Monday, January 7th, 2019

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will range between Good and middle Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A system moving through Wednesday will bring snow to parts of the state, otherwise, generally quiet conditions can be expected the rest of the week. Morning inversions, and lighter winds associated with storms tracking north and south of the state, will produce periods of Moderate fine particulate through Sunday.

A stronger storm will bring precipitation into the state late Sunday/early Monday and conditions should be warm enough for the precipitation to start as rain. Cooler air will filter in late Monday/Tuesday as the system pulls east likely changing rain over to snow showers. Any increases in fine particulate will improve to Good by Tuesday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show lake effect snow under a northwest wind flow and chances for snow could linger through mid-week. With the decent northwest wind, Good fine particulate is expected.

Next forecast update: Monday, January 7th, 2019

12/28/2018 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

FRIDAY, DECEMBER 28 THROUGH WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 2

PM-2.5:  24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will be generally Good to Low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

The first of two cold fronts is passing through the state Friday morning.  The wind shift to the southwest will initiate slowly falling temperatures and Good Air Quality.  A stronger cold front will pass Friday night with a wind shift to the northwest and sharply cooler temperatures.  Air Quality will remain Good under this wind pattern.

High pressure should dominate during the weekend with mostly Good Air Quality, although some Low Moderates could occur during Sunday with stagnate conditions.

The best chance of Moderate readings will be Monday when the region comes under southwest winds in advance of the next low pressure system.  Fronts associated with that system should be through the region during New Year’s Day cleaning out any residual particulates.

Since the state offices will be closed Monday and Tuesday, the next forecast will occur on Wednesday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good going into the new year.

FORECAST UPDATED BY JIM HAYWOOD: FRIDAY, DECEMBER 28TH, 2018

NEXT FORECAST UPDATE: WEDNESDAY, JANUARY 2ND, 2019

 

12/21/2018 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Friday, December 21st, 2018 through Friday, December 28th, 2018

PM-2.5:  24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will be generally Good to Low Moderate. 

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Current Air Quality is Good going into the Christmas holiday weekend.  As air and ground conditions stay moist, the opportunity of particulates running into the Low Moderate range is always a possibility.

The best chances appear to be on Sunday when we get into a southerly wind profile.  Christmas Day also looks promising with weak winds biased from the southeast.  Southeast winds look to prevail through the end of next week but appear to be strong enough to keep the atmosphere well mixed. 

With another holiday weekend (New Year’s) following Christmas, we will be updating this forecast on the Friday before that next holiday break.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good to Low Moderate going into the New Year’s holiday weekend.

 

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Friday, December 21st, 2018

Next forecast update: Friday, December 28th, 2018

12/17/2018 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, December 17th, 2018 through Friday, December 21st, 2018

PM-2.5:  24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will be generally Good except for Wednesday and Thursday when widespread Moderates are expected.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

A weak front will pass through Michigan during Monday with little fanfare.  The primary result of this passage will be a wind shift to the northwest which will help clean out the higher particulate numbers we observed, last week.  With that frontal passage, I expect mostly Good to Low Moderate concentrations through Tuesday.

As high pressure drifts over the region during mid-week, winds will return to a southerly direction and a short warming trend.  This will likely push PM-2.5 concentrations back into the Moderate range.  I expect this to last Wednesday into Thursday. 

Another cold front should pass through the state later Thursday.  This should push winds back to a northwesterly direction and clean out any residual Moderates.  Mostly Good conditions should persist Friday through the weekend.

Since the State offices will be closed Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, a short update will be issued on Friday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good going into the Christmas holiday week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, December 17th, 2018

Next forecast update: Friday, December 21st, 2018

12/10/2018 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, December 10th, 2018 through Monday, December 17th, 2018

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will range between middle Good and middle Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Quiet conditions, for the most part, will be experienced over the next week. A system moving through late Wednesday/early Thursday brings snow into the forecast. After that, the next system Friday into Saturday looks to track south of the state, but a disturbance further north may bring some precipitation to the area. Before and after these systems, high pressure keeps precipitation out of the forecast and seasonable to a little slightly above normal temperatures are anticipated.

As for air quality through the period, fine particulate will range from middle Good to middle Moderate through Wednesday thanks to weaker winds, especially during the morning hours. The highest fine particulate levels will be seen in the more urban parts of the state with mostly Moderates prevailing. There isn’t much of a wind-shift with the mid-week system and winds go light, and then south early Friday. Fine particulate during this period will continue to range from middle Good to middle Moderate. East to northeast winds develop early in the weekend as the storm system tracks south of the state. Fine particulate may improve towards the Good range; however, a few Moderates may linger.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show an upper level trough dropping in early next week bringing northwest winds. This flow will clean out any lingering Moderates of fine particulate; generally Good levels expected early next week.

Next forecast update: Monday, December 17th, 2018

12/03/2018 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, December 3rd, 2018 through Monday, December 10th, 2018

PM-2.5:  24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will be generally Good to Low Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

A slight warming trend, during the weekend, melted most of the snow pack associated with the storm experienced early last week.  Warming air over a snow pack has the tendency to spurn particulate growth in the atmosphere and we saw that trend develop, especially during last Friday.  In the Detroit area, we saw hourly spikes of PM-2.5 causing the 24-hour average to settle around the 35 ug/m3 threshold between Moderate and USG.  Fortunately, that was a short-lived episode and early week readings are back into the Good category.

I anticipate this week’s forecast to yield mostly Good readings.  A weak front will pass through Michigan on Monday followed by northerly winds.  A period of calm weather should persist until Thursday when the next weak front is projected to pass.  There are no indications that Air Quality should exceed the Good to Low Moderate range

High pressure and rare sunny skies should prevail during the weekend.  Air Quality should be generally Good but light winds may allow some stagnation into the Low Moderate range.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, December 3rd, 2018

Next forecast update: Monday, December 10th, 2018

11/26/2018 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, November 26th, 2018 through Monday, December 3rd, 2018

PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good, but a few periods of low-Moderates are possible.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The snow storm which brought decent snow accumulations across much of Lower Michigan will pull away from the state as Monday progresses. Lake effect snows will then develop later Monday, possible lasting into Wednesday, due to northwest winds behind the departing storm. Fine particulate levels through Wednesday will be in the Good range.

Quiet weather is anticipated Thursday as a high-pressure area moves in. A weak system passing later Thursday into Friday could trigger some scattered precipitation. Winds will be lighter Thursday into Friday; therefore, fine particulate may reach low Moderate across parts of southern Michigan.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended models show a stronger storm system coming into play Saturday and Sunday. Current models show temperatures may be warm enough for rain, especially in Lower Michigan. Regardless of what type of precipitation we end up with, stronger winds with this system should keep fine particulate generally Good.

Forecast updated by Stephanie Hengesbach: Monday, November 26th, 2018

Next forecast update: Monday, December 3rd, 2018