02/23/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday February 23, 2026, through Friday February 27, 2026

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A return to seasonal normal temperatures is on the docket for this week after early last week’s false spring. Many of us Michiganders are waking up to fresh snowfall this Monday morning as a quick hitting system moved over the state during the day Sunday and into this morning. Lake-effect snow bands are still accumulating snow over the snowbelts with a few extra inches expected in those areas. Some of us receive a slight break in snow before another system moves into the region from the north which will drop another two inches or so across the state with snowbelt areas receiving slightly more. This system will move out of the area come Wednesday before a High-pressure system moves in on Thursday. Sunshine is expected when this system moves in and southward across the state as we move into Friday which will see the High-pressure to our south. As the High-pressure moves south, winds will shift with it and provide southerly flow and warmer temperatures. The 40s looks to make a return for a good majority of the state Friday and into the last day of February on Saturday.

For air quality, rather consistent airmass change this week will help to keep PM-2.5 concentrations low as clean air will continually be brought in. PM-2.5 concentrations may see an increase in the latter half of the week with warmer temperatures and surface inversions. As of now, however, low-to-mid Moderate concentrations are expected. With February ending this weekend, the Ozone season officially starts on Sunday, March 1. Although we typically do not see Ozone increases until the middle of April, the Ozone forecast will make a return in the upcoming month of March. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Southerly flow will provide warmer temperatures for the start of the weekend, but a cold front moves through just in time for Sunday, which will cool us back down into the upper-20s. Air quality will return to the Good range after a few potential peaks into the Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Friday February 27, 2026

02/20/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, February 20, 2026 through Monday, February 23, 2026

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to start mostly Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) transitioning to Good (AQI Green) throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

The snow has melted in most of the Lower Peninsula and warmer temperatures have given us a taste of upcoming Spring weather.  It was quite refreshing to emerge from our winter dungeons and enjoy fresh air that did not hurt to breathe.

We will take a step back this weekend, however, as we return to some colder air, albeit not nearly as cold as what we experienced during January and early February.  Friday will feature windy conditions as a deep low-pressure system passes through the upper half of the state.  The wrap-around winds will shift to the west and northwest following the exit of the low-pressure system.

Friday’s weather, along with the wind, will feature drizzly rain showers, low clouds, and falling temperatures, eventually giving way to scattered afternoon snow showers.  For the remainder of the weekend, our Spring teaser ends with temperatures in the 20s to 30s.

On a positive note, Air Quality will improve as we finally get a clean out from the somewhat murky air of the past few days.  Thus, the weekend should feature AQI’s transitioning from scattered Moderate to mostly Good.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to a mix of mostly Good entering the upcoming work week. 

02/17/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday, February 17, 2026 through Friday, February 20, 2026

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Most people are aware of the elevated fine particulate episode we endured in SE Michigan over the weekend.  The news media attached themselves to the narrative that melting snow was directly emitting particulates into the atmosphere.  Unfortunately, this is a misrepresentation of the role that melting snow plays in the formation of fine particulates.  Does melting snow directly emit particulates to the atmosphere as it melts? Absolutely not…  Can melting snow play a role in the formation of fine particulates. Yes, assuming other elements are in play.

Those other elements include a solid snowpack which keeps the air near the ground cold.  Next you have warm air overriding the cold surface, as we did with temperatures nearing 60 degrees.  With warm air overriding cold air, the atmosphere is very stable with air tending to sink towards the ground.  Add to that a persistent high-pressure dome which created a strong inversion layer, especially during the nighttime hours.  That inversion layer can be near the surface effectively trapping the increasing dirty air already hugging the ground.  A review of the upper air sounding, Sunday morning, showed that capping inversion layer began only 30 meters above the ground.  Consider, too, all the particulates from road salt dust kicked up by urban scale traffic along with all the primary and secondary fine particulates from vehicle emissions. home/industrial heating, and industrial processes being continually pumped into that shallow layer of air trapped near the ground.  Compounding the issue is increased moisture from the snow melt which can act as a catalyst for forming secondary particles and also act as a nuclei for other particulates. 

With all those pollutants being crammed into this tight 30-meter layer, it was not surprising to see increasing particulate readings.  The AQD forecaster observed all the elements coming together and appropriately issued an advisory.  The forecasters decided to extend the advisory through noon, Monday, when winds were expected to increase allowing for cleaner air to mix down.  This forecast was accurate as we did experience several SE Michigan monitors cross into the USG range.

Following this event on social media, I observed several comments to the effect that people had never seen this phenomena before.  Actually, it is quite common for this to occur during this time of year, albeit to different degrees.  This was more a of “perfect storm” where all the contributing elements were at an extreme causing higher concentrations.

The rest of the work week should feature AQI’s in the Moderate range.  While we do not see a complete cleanout during the week, most of the elements described above are no longer in play.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to a mix of Good to Moderate entering the upcoming weekend. 

02/13/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday February 13th, 2026, through Tuesday February 17th, 2026

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) range with possible Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Orange AQI) hourly concentrations.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Above average temperatures and ample sunlight will be observed this weekend in mid-February as High-pressure dominates the weather regime over the next few days. Along with keeping skies mostly clear, the High-pressure will shift winds to more southerly flow which will bring in the warmer air. Upper-30s to upper-40s will be seen across the state with some areas in southern Michigan potentially seeing the 50s in the latter half of the weekend and into Presidents’ Day on Monday. After numerous weeks of bone-chilling temperatures and plenty of snow, this weekend will provide a well-deserved break.

While warmer temperatures will be a nice change, they will pose a threat to air quality as snow will steadily melt throughout the weekend and release particulates into the air in doing so. The High-pressure will also stagnate winds which will allow PM-2.5 concentrations to accumulate due to inefficient to non-existent air dispersion. The set up at hand is looking like a classic winter PM-2.5 event with the combination of warming temperatures, melting snow and light winds. As an indicator of what is ahead, there is currently an inversion in place this Friday morning which essentially caps off any dispersion in the atmosphere, near the surface. Long-lasting inversions should be expected throughout this weekend, especially with most of Michigan covered with snow. What is expected to occur is warmer temperatures will move in, but the snowpack across Michigan will present cooler temperatures near the surface, so we will potentially have warmer air over cooler air. That set up is what causes a surface inversion which, as stated above, creates stagnant conditions. With the ingredients in place, PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate range in the days ahead with some hourly concentrations approaching or exceeding the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG) range. I do not expect multiple hours in the USG range as of now, but if conditions warrant a forecast update, one will be sent out.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The warming trend continues into next week with the peak of temperatures looking to be Wednesday. Due to the warming temperatures, air quality will remain in the Moderate range.

Next Forecast update, as of now: Tuesday February 17th, 2026

02/09/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday February 9th, 2026, through Friday February 13th, 2026

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

As we approach the middle of February, a quick thaw is in store for Tuesday with surface temperatures potentially reaching the 40s in some southern Michigan areas. This is due to a pressure system and associated warm front that will eclipse southern portion of the state throughout Tuesday. On the back side, however, temperatures cool back down to below freezing until we reach the latter half of the week when temperatures jump back up above freezing statewide. There does not appear to be any snowmakers heading towards the Great Lakes state, aside from local lake-effect snow showers predominantly in the Upper Peninsula.

For air quality, with a few days this week in the mid-to-upper 30s F, melting snow may lead to increases in PM-2.5 concentrations into the upper Moderate range. These increases are expected to be limited to a few hours, especially on Tuesday when wind speeds will help to disperse any particulate release. The second warm up during the latter half of the week may see lighter winds so mid-to-high Moderate concentrations may hang around longer. If any changes in the forecast warrant an update, one will be sent out. But overall, mid-Moderate PM-2.5 concentrations should be expected this week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

We may see a weekend completely above freezing ahead of us, which may cause an increase in PM-2.5 concentrations. A closer look will be made later this week.

Next Forecast update: Friday February 13th, 2026

02/06/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, February 6, 2026 through Monday, February 9, 2026

 PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) to Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) throughout the forecast period.

  FORECAST DISCUSSION

 Even though we are only about three weeks away from meteorological spring, Old Man Winter is not relinquishing his grip on Michigan.  Friday morning awakens to light snowy conditions thanks to a shortwave of low pressure to our southwest.  Although its effects should be gone by noon, it did make the Friday morning commute a bit messy. 

 The main weather feature of Friday weather, however, is an Arctic front which will work its way through the state during the afternoon hours.  While not much snow is expected, temperatures will once again drop to below average levels.  Is there any relief in sight?  Hopefully, yes, as the computer models are showing some moderating temperatures during next week.  While not yet sunbathing weather, it does look like we break the freezing mark for a few days and may finally start a slow melt before hitting another short cold spell by the end of the work week.

 In terms of Air Quality, we have a mixture of Good and Low Moderate Air Quality which should persist throughout the weekend.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good to Low Moderate entering the upcoming work week with slight moderating temperatures. 

02/02/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, February 2, 2026 through Friday, February 6, 2026

 PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) to Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) throughout the forecast period.

  FORECAST DISCUSSION

 As February arrives, light snow will move through the area during Monday as a shortwave of low-pressure approaches and moves through the region.  This area of snow could switch over to light freezing drizzle during Monday afternoon although little, if any, accumulation is expected.

 The remainder of the work week should be mostly dry with near normal temperatures for this time of year.  This is a break from the bitter cold of recent.  A check of climatic records shows that the daily highs in the Lansing area have been between -12 and -28 degrees below normal for the past nine days. For this week, however, forecasts show high temperatures in the 20’s and nearing the freezing mark by Friday.

 The moderating temperatures look to be short lived as models are in general agreement that a surge of colder air will push into the Great Lakes region Friday night into Saturday.  Saturday temperatures look similar to days in the recent past with highs only in the teens and lows in the single digits.  Fortunately, the bitterly cold air does not stay long as it is projected to be pushed out of the Midwest region by Monday.

 In terms of Air Quality, we have a mixture of Good and Low Moderate Air Quality conditions which should persist throughout the week.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good to Low Moderate entering the upcoming weekend. 

Next forecast update: Friday, February 6, 2026

01/30/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, January 30, 2026 through Monday, February 2, 2026

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) with scattered Low Moderates (AQI Yellow) throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

January finally comes to an end, Saturday, and while it will not make much difference in the current cold weather snap, we can optimistically say the meteorological spring is one month away.  And while this certainly seems like the winter that will never end, things will get a slight bit warmer by the end of the weekend. 

High pressure moves over the region during the weekend giving us a break from the clouds.  While it will be nice to see some sun, the lack of clouds at night will drop temperatures back below the zero-degree mark.  As the high slides eastward, we do get into some southwest winds.  It will not give us a thaw but by Sunday, daytime highs temperature should reach the mid-20’s and nighttime lows should stay above the zero-degree mark.

That trend should persist through the upcoming week, although with no real chance to break the freezing mark.  The long-range forecast has another blast of Arctic air dropping south over the region, next weekend, so Old Man Winter is not leaving anytime soon.

In terms of Air Quality, Good Air Quality should begin the weekend with increasingly scattered Moderates by the end of the weekend as temperature moderate a bit.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good to Moderate entering the upcoming work week. 

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Friday, January 30, 2026

Next forecast update: Monday, February 2, 2026

01/26/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, January 26, 2026 through Friday, January 30, 2026

 PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) with scattered Low Moderates (AQI Yellow) throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

 The coldest air of the season remains intact with no significant relief through the forecast period.  Friday night temperatures dropped in the -20-degree range in much of the Lower Peninsula with some stations reporting the coldest temperatures in 30 years. 

 This week continues with bitterly cold weather with daytime high temperatures in the teens and overnight lows near zero.  West Michigan continues to be bombarded with lake effect snow with several more inches expected in western Ottawa, Allegan, and Van Buren counties.  During Monday, the National Weather Service is predicting snowfall amounts will largely range from 1-4 inches within the advisory area but the highest amounts of 5-7 inches are more likely within Van Buren and southwest potions of Allegan County.

 A shortwave of low pressure is projected to move through the area late Monday night into Tuesday morning bringing widespread accumulations of 2 to 4 inches along and west of US-131 with lower amounts further east.  A second and larger, colder arctic intrusion is forecasted to dig straight southward into the region Thursday and Friday with overnight lows projected in the sub-zero range.

 High pressure moves across the region during the weekend.  As the high pressure slides eastward, the area comes under light southwest winds which should slightly moderate the temperatures to around 20 degrees by Sunday.

 In terms of Air Quality, Good Air Quality should begin the week with increasingly scattered Moderates by the end of the week.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good to Moderate entering the upcoming weekend. 

01/23/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, January 23, 2026 - Monday, January 26, 2026

PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will average mostly Good (Green AQI) with some Moderate (Yellow AQI) possible, mainly in the south on Sunday.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Michigan is currently under the coldest airmass of the season, with wind chills well below zero. These extremely cold temperatures and dangerous wind chills will persist into Saturday, accompanied by lake-effect snow in the northwest snowbelt areas.

Temperatures remain cold on Sunday but will improve slightly compared to Friday and Saturday. Attention then shifts to a large winter storm expected to bring widespread winter weather from the southern Rockies to New England Friday through Monday. The northern edge of this system will move across parts of the Lower Peninsula on Sunday.

Snowfall amounts remain uncertain, but current models suggest up to 3 inches in the southeast portion of the state. This will be important to monitor, especially for those with travel plans.

After the storm pushes east, northwest winds will return early next week, once again triggering lake-effect snow in favored areas.

The forecast period begins with Good air quality statewide, and these Good levels are expected to continue through Saturday. A brief period of lighter winds on Sunday may allow for some Moderate concentrations in southern Michigan; otherwise, Good readings should persist into early next week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models indicate that systems moving in early next week will maintain lake-effect snow chances in the forecast. Air quality is expected to remain in the Good range early next week.

Next Forecast update: Monday, January 26, 2026

01/20/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday, January 20, 2026 - Friday, January 23, 2026

PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will average mostly Good (Green AQI) with some Moderate (Yellow AQI) possible, especially Wednesday into Thursday in the south.

 FORECAST DISCUSSION:

This forecast period begins with Good air quality across the state. Aside from some lake effect snows in parts of the Upper Peninsula, generally quiet conditions are expected elsewhere.  However, a continuation of cold temperature and brisk wind chills will be noted.  A persistent northerly wind will help maintain Good air quality through Tuesday.

As we move into midweek, a clipper system will bring another round of snow from west to east across the state on Wednesday, while lake-effect snow persists in the Upper Peninsula. Most areas can expect 2–4 inches of accumulation, with locally higher amounts in western locations. A brief period of lighter winds may allow fine particulate concentrations to reach Moderate levels Wednesday into Thursday across southern portions of the state. Any buildup of pollution will diminish by Friday as a very cold arctic air mass settles into the region late Thursday into Friday. High temperatures will drop into the single digits by the end of the workweek. Northerly winds will help keep fine particulate levels in the Good range Thursday and Friday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show the cold arctic air lingering into Saturday, keeping air quality in the Good range for the start of the weekend.

Next Forecast update: Friday, January 23, 2026

01/16/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, January 16, 2026 through Tuesday, January 20, 2026

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

A low-pressure cell moves across the upper Great Lakes, during Friday, dragging a series of fronts with it.  Friday snow will likely impact areas from upper and central Lower Peninsula and west to Lake Michigan.

As the weekend progresses, West Michigan snow may get heavy later Saturday afternoon into Saturday night and then again Sunday evening through Monday morning as an Arctic front arrives.  This front will usher in some bitterly cold Arctic air which could lead to some periods of significant lake effect snow.  The Arctic air arriving Monday morning will produce falling temperatures during the day and lasting through Tuesday.  These bitterly cold temperatures will be further aggravated with strong winds and wind chills.

In terms of Air Quality, Good Air Quality should persist through the forecast period.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good entering the upcoming work week. 

01/12/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, January 12, 2026 through Friday, January 16, 2026

 PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) to Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) throughout the forecast period.

  FORECAST DISCUSSION

 AQI values begin the week in the Good category.  Monday may prove to be the mildest day of the forecast period.  A short wave of low pressure will exit the region followed by a short-duration ridge of high pressure.  That will be following be another short wave of low pressure, Tuesday morning, with rain under warmer 40 degree temperatures as we remain under a continental air mass.

 January temperatures return Wednesday morning as an arctic front drops down from Canada followed by Canadian high pressure on Thursday.  Expect high temperatures in the low 20’s.  There does not appear to be a threat of a major snow event during this forecast period although some snow may accompany the arctic front passage on Wednesday.  Lake effect snow should be minimized with the wind fetch behind that front being more north-northeast than west-northwest.

 In terms of Air Quality, Good Air Quality should persist with some scattered Low Moderates in the early part of the week.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good entering the upcoming weekend. 

01/09/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, January 9, 2026 - Monday, January 12, 2026

PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will average mostly Good (Green AQI) with some Moderate (Yellow AQI) possible late in the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Strong winds will accompany a cold front today (Friday), bringing a mix of precipitation across Michigan. Accumulating snow is expected in the western Upper Peninsula, while the eastern Upper Peninsula and northern Lower Peninsula may experience a mix of rain and snow with little accumulation. Any precipitation in southern areas will fall as rain. Temperatures start unseasonably warm across much of Michigan, but readings will drop as colder air moves in. Conditions briefly quiet late Friday before two systems phase and move through the region on Saturday. Snow returns to the forecast across the western Upper Peninsula early Saturday, and snow chances spread east across the state through the day. Snow ends west to east Sunday as ridging builds.

Air quality will remain in the Good range across most areas through the end of the week. A brief period of lighter winds in the east on Saturday could allow for some low Moderate readings, but reinforcing northwest winds late Saturday into Sunday should maintain Good conditions into the new week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models indicate a quick-moving system on Monday that may bring snow to northern areas, but most of the state should remain dry. A stronger clipper system is expected Tuesday, returning snow to the forecast statewide. Air quality should stay in the Good range, though lighter winds on Monday could lead to some low Moderate readings in the more urban areas.

Next Forecast update: Monday, January 12, 2026

01/05/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, January 5, 2026 - Friday, January 9, 2026

PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will average mostly Moderate (Yellow AQI) this forecast period.

 FORECAST DISCUSSION:

 A few weather systems will impact the region this week. The first disturbance arrives on Tuesday, bringing rain and freezing rain south and mixed precipitation north. High pressure builds in midweek, resulting in generally quiet weather conditions Wednesday and Thursday.  Another system approaches from the southwest late Thursday to Friday. Forecast models indicate warmer temperatures with this system, so precipitation will fall mainly as rain as the associated boundary moves through.

 The current forecast trends keep surface moisture and light winds over the region much of the week.  This combination will keep fine particulate levels in the Moderate range.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show a stronger storm system traveling through the region on Saturday. This system will bring snow into the forecast, and cold northerly winds will develop in its wake. Air quality levels late in the period should average mostly Good.

Next Forecast update: Friday, January 9, 2026

12/29/2025 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, December 29, 2025 through Monday, January 5, 2026

 PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) throughout the forecast period.

 FORECAST DISCUSSION

 Michiganders awoke to cold, blustery conditions as a deepening low over northern Michigan migrates eastward.  Strong wrap-around winds behind the low will usher in snow showers, 20-degree temperatures, and wind gusts of 50+ mph.  This is a big change from the 50-degree temperatures many areas in Lower Michigan experienced, on Sunday, during a brief time in the warm air sector of this passing low-pressure system.

 For the remainder of the New Year’s week, a Canadian upper air low will support seasonally cold air across the Great Lakes region.  A weak short wave clipper system will provide a good chance for light snow late Tuesday/Tuesday night, with light accumulation.  A stronger short wave is projected to deliver a reinforcing short of arctic air Wednesday into New Year’s.  Long range temperature projections do not have the thermometer breaking the freezing point anytime during this forecast period.

 In terms of Air Quality, we begin the weekend with Good Air Quality, with the colder northwest winds, which should persist throughout the week.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good entering the upcoming post-holiday week. 

12/22/2025 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, December 22, 2025 - Monday, December 29, 2025

PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will average between Good (Green AQI) and Moderate (Yellow AQI).

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

For those dreaming of a white Christmas, some areas will experience one while others will go without this year.  A few storm systems are passing through this holiday week with temperatures warm enough for rain at times.  The first system is a warm front with light snow Monday, changing to a mix or just rain early Tuesday.  A break is expected from Tuesday to Wednesday as high pressure slides over the state.  Yet another system arrives late on Christmas Day. Temperatures accompanying this system are borderline between causing freezing or liquid precipitation, so travelers should check local weather conditions prior to traveling.

As for air quality, prolonged periods of stagnation are not expected over the next week.  Many locations may see fine particulate concentrations in the middle Moderate range, especially during the morning hours, but daily averages of fine particulates higher than the Moderate range are not anticipated over the next week.  Air quality levels between the Good and Moderate ranges can be expected throughout the period.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show northerly winds behind a late weekend storm that brings in colder temperatures.  Precipitation may start as rain as the system moves in; however, rain will change to snow as the cold air filters in.  Any Moderate fine particulate readings should improve to Good early next week.

Next Forecast update: Monday, December 29, 2025

12/19/2025 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, December 19, 2025 through Monday, December 22, 2025

 PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) to Low Moderate (AQI Yellow).

FORECAST DISCUSSION

The short break in the cold weather streak we have endured during December ended abruptly Thursday evening with the passage of a strong cold front.  Temperatures, which had reached 50 degrees in many areas, are plunging back into the mid-20’s for a high on Friday. 

As the cold front advances eastward, an approaching high-pressure ridge will moderate Saturday’s temperatures back into the mid-30’s.  Following that, a weak clipper system is expected to pass through the region during Sunday plunging temperatures back into the 20’s.

Christmas week is trending towards warmer weather with above-normal temperatures expected throughout the week.  That indicates that, despite extremely cold weather and heavy snow pack from early December, we will probably not see much of a white Christmas, at least in the Lower Peninsula.

On a positive note, astronomical winter begins on Sunday, which means days will start getting longer.

In terms of Air Quality, we begin the weekend with Good Air Quality with the colder northwest winds.  However, as we see some additional melting during Saturday, odds increase for Air Quality to creep into the Low Moderate range, in some areas.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to remain Good to Low Moderate entering the weekend. 

12/15/2025 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, December 15, 2025 through Friday, December 20, 2025

 PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be Good (AQI Green) to Low Moderate (AQI Yellow).

 FORECAST DISCUSSION

 Being a weather geek and a numbers nerd, I ran some numbers to show what we already know.  It’s been a cold December!  In Lansing, the average high temperature for this time of year is 36 degrees.  This year, however, the December temperature has only broken the freezing mark twice, and just barely.  The average daily temperature has been 11 degrees below normal.

 The last full week before the Christmas holiday promises to show a slight moderation in temperature.  Mid-week temperatures are looking to reach the upper 30’s or even low 40’s, giving the accumulated snow pack a chance to melt, a bit.  The seven-day forecast is not showing any major winter weather issues, although Thursday is showing rain tapering to snow showers during the night.  Even without any new major snow events in the long-range forecast, it is a good chance that we will retain enough snow to have a white Christmas.

 In terms of Air Quality, we begin the week with Good Air Quality.  However, as we see some melting and the addition of moisture to the atmosphere, that increases the chances for Air Quality to creep into the Moderate range, during the week.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to remain Good to Moderate entering the weekend.  The next best chance for light accumulating snow occurs early next week.

12/12/2025 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, December 12, 2025 - Monday, December 15, 2025

PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will average between Good (Green AQI) and Moderate (Yellow AQI).

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A system north of Lake Superior keeps snow in the forecast on Friday, including lake effect snow in its wake. A second system tracking south of Michigan on Saturday may bring snow accumulations to southern locations; otherwise, north to northwest winds will keep lake effect snow in the forecast in the most prone areas. Temperatures also fall this weekend as arctic air moves in. Friday night’s lows will range from near zero in the Upper Peninsula to the teens across Lower Michigan. Low temperatures on Saturday and Sunday night will be in the single digits, with highs on Sunday only in the teens. Wind chills below zero can also be expected during this period. The threat of snow lingers Monday as a system drops in from the northwest.

Air quality levels on Friday will range from Moderate in the south to Good in central and northern locations.  Northwesterly winds from Saturday into Sunday will allow for Good levels statewide.  By Monday, some Moderate concentrations may move back in across the south; otherwise, good air quality will prevail.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show a warmup by midweek next week.  The warmer surface temperatures, and possible rain, will result in melting snow. Increased surface moisture will allow for Moderate air quality levels.

Next Forecast update: Monday, December 15, 2025