04/06/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday April 6th, 2026, through Friday April 10th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range later in the week.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

We start off the first full week of April with surface temperatures expected to be at or below normal today, Monday, due to persistent northerly flow. After a rather wet period in the latter half of last week and this past weekend, this week will see a decrease in precipitation for the majority of the week with Thursday and into Friday seeing the most amount of precipitation. First, however, a cold front crossed over Michigan in the overnight hours which shifted winds to northerly flow, as mentioned above. Going into Tuesday, High-pressure sets up over Wisconsin which will clear the skies and lighten the winds, while keeping us below average for surface temperatures. The warming trend starts on Wednesday as winds shift to southerly flow, bringing in warmer air, but will also present some precipitation for the northern half of the state. A wintry mix is expected throughout the day on Wednesday before turning to mostly rain on Thursday. This system will give way to Friday’s system which will impact the entire state with rain as temperature return to the 50s and 60s thanks to a warm front crossing over the state.

For air quality, northerly flow and cooler temperatures for the first half of the week will help to keep concentrations Good. As we get into the latter half of this work week, winds shifting to southerly flow may pose an increase of PM-2.5 into the low-Moderate range. However, rain showers on Thursday and Friday will keep any increases at bay. We typically start to see some Ozone increases in the month of April. This week does not look like it will be a week for Ozone as temperatures will still be too cool. Although, our eyes are now slowly starting to focus more on Ozone development as the temperatures warm.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The warming trend continues into the weekend as Good to low-Moderate air quality is expected.

Next Forecast update: Friday April 10th, 2026

04/03/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, April 3, 2026 through Monday, April 6, 2026

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are expected to be Good (AQI Green) throughout the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) throughout the forecast period.

A bit more noisy weather is expected, Friday tonight, as another round of showers and thunderstorms is expected from tonight into Saturday.  This is due to a warm front that will track back northward into the area bringing 60-degree temperatures for Saturday.  The possibility of a few stronger storms in Southern Lower Michigan exists from tonight into early Saturday afternoon.  Additional rainfall could be on the order of a half to one inch

Following the passage of an associated cold front late Saturday, weather turns colder as winter refuses to totally relent.  Temperature decreases may be just cold enough for a little bit of lake effect snow.  Highs will be in the low to mid 40s for the remainder of the weekend and into early next week.

 Temperatures should rebound by mid-week with chances for rain to return to the forecast. I am expecting temperature to reach the 50s for highs by mid-week, which is normal for this time of year.

 Winter is not over but Spring is building momentum.  On a positive note, Good Air Quality is expected throughout the state, and the trend should continue into next week. 

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to continue to be mostly Good entering the upcoming work week. 

03/30/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday March 30th, 2026, through Friday April 3rd, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Spring has sprung! Or at least for today, Monday, and tomorrow, Tuesday, as high temperatures are expected to approach 70 degrees in southern Michigan. The upper peninsula is hanging around seasonal norms for this time of the year due to a frontal boundary lingering in the Straits of Mackinac. This is causing warm air to be brought into southern Michigan via southerly flow, whereas the upper peninsula is under northerly flow, keeping their temperatures cooler. Our temperatures, statewide, homogenize come Wednesday however after the passing of a cold front on Tuesday which will bring ample amounts of rain, snow flurries, and temperatures nearing seasonal averages. This will be the first round of precipitation as more mixed precipitation is expected on Thursday with rain, freezing rain, and snow all expected throughout the day as another Low-pressure and front moves through the state. Once the system exits the state, Friday slowly becomes quieter in terms of precipitation, although there may be some breezy conditions as the pressure gradient in between systems balances out.

For air quality, the highest expected day for PM-2.5 concentrations this week will be today, Monday, and into Tuesday before the front and rain moves through. Today in southern Michigan there will be southerly flow which will help to increase fine particulate, along with lighter winds in the morning hours. Winds pick up slightly Monday afternoon which will keep any increases at bay, but low-to-mid Moderate concentrations should be expected for most of the day. Once the front and precipitation move through on Tuesday and early Wednesday morning, any substantial build up of PM-2.5 will be cleaned out as a change in airmass will bring cleaner air. The presence of multiple systems moving through this week along with change in wind direction will help keep air quality mostly Good for the week ahead.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The first weekend of April will see another system moving through with additional precipitation across the state. This will help keep air quality Good.

Next Forecast update: Friday April 3rd, 2026

03/27/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday March 27th, 2026, through Monday March 30th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

After a flurry of mixed precipitation yesterday, March 26th, with snow in the north and steady rain in the south, us Michiganders get a break in weather for the weekend ahead. Aside from a slight disturbance potentially bringing light precipitation overnight tonight and Saturday night, High pressure slides in Saturday morning which will clear the skies but may bring breezy conditions come Saturday afternoon and evening. Temperatures will increase throughout this weekend as well with the mid-30s to mid-40s on the docket for Saturday and the mid-40s to mid-50s on Sunday. The warmth will continue early next week, at least for southern Michigan, as the 60s look to make a return.

For air quality, the breezy conditions and change in wind direction will help to keep our current airmass continuously clean and prevent any PM-2.5 buildup. At the tail end of this weekend and into early next week, there may be a slight increase of PM-2.5 into the low-Moderate range as southerly flow returns and wind speeds start to slow down. However, overall air quality this weekend is expected to be in the Good range. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

A run at the 70s looks possible on Tuesday along with the potential of heavy rain. Air quality will remain in the Good to low-Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Monday March 30th, 2026

03/23/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday March 23rd, 2026, through Friday March 27th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

We enter the last full week of March on a relatively quiet note, aside from a few lake-enhanced showers this Monday morning, as High-pressure will slide in going into tomorrow, Tuesday. Seasonal normal temperatures are expected this week with a few days above seasonal averages due to a warm front and southwesterly flow. The peak in temperatures will be Thursday for the lower peninsula as the 60s make a return, but a stubborn stationary front will sit near the Straits of Mackinac and cause the upper peninsula to hang around the mid-30s. Accompanying this front, which will move over the state Friday morning, will be mixed precipitation at times with rain as the main precipitation type. With the passing of this front, winds will shift back to north-northwesterly, cooling the lower peninsula back down into the 40s and near seasonal norms.

Air quality will be ebb-and-flowing this week with the passing of fronts, shifting winds and light winds when the High-pressure moves in. With the southwesterly winds on Wednesday and into Thursday, PM-2.5 concentrations should be expected to increase into the Moderate range for lower Michigan. As the aforementioned frontal boundary moves through the state come Friday, however, those concentrations are expected to decrease. Along with the wind shift, precipitation will help to clean out the atmosphere with a good airmass change.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The weekend ahead looks mostly clear of any systems with High-pressure lingering to the south. Temperatures will be around seasonal norms and air quality is expected to be in the Good range.

Next Forecast update: Friday March 27th, 2026

03/20/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, March 20, 2026 - Monday, March 23, 2026

PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will begin the forecast period mostly Moderate (Yellow AQI) with improving early next week.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A weak system moving through Michigan brought light precipitation early Friday. High pressure will build in, keeping conditions mostly dry to start the weekend. Temperatures will warm Friday into Saturday as southerly winds develop. Forecast models indicate the next weather system could bring precipitation to northern Michigan as early as Saturday, while central and southern areas remain dry and warm for this time of year. This pattern changes late Saturday into Sunday as a boundary sinks south through the state, allowing precipitation and cooler winds to return for the start of the new week.

Air quality begins in the Moderate range, and most locations are expected to remain Moderate on Saturday due to high pressure and warmer southerly winds. Any buildup of fine particulate should improve after the frontal passage on Sunday as northerly winds return to the region.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show high pressure and dry conditions for Monday. If the current forecast pans out, a small increase in fine particulate may occur.  Air quality early next week is expected to range from the upper Good to low Moderate.

 Next Forecast update: Monday, March 23, 2026

03/16/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, March 16, 2026 - Friday, March 20, 2026

PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will average mostly Good (Green AQI) with some Moderate (Yellow AQI) possible past mid-week.

 FORECAST DISCUSSION:

 Winter is having a hard time letting go, especially across northern Michigan, where a blizzard is hitting early this week. Other parts of the state are dealing with mixed precipitation that will transition to snow as strong northwest winds drive temperatures downward through the day Monday. Travel is expected to be difficult to impossible across northern areas, so anyone planning to head out Monday or Tuesday should check local conditions.

 Snow tapers off from west to east later today, but gusty winds will continue to reduce visibility due to blowing snow, particularly in the north. Lake-effect snow showers are expected to persist on Tuesday, though high pressure moving in from the west should bring a brief period of drier weather from late Tuesday to early Wednesday. Another weak system will drop in from the northwest Wednesday into Thursday, bringing light precipitation. Forecast models indicate a warm-up and drier conditions toward the end of the week.

 Air quality starts off Good thanks to the strong, gusty northwest flow. Northwest winds persist into Tuesday, helping maintain Good conditions. By mid‑week, winds weaken and shift to a more southerly direction, which could allow fine particulate levels to rise into the Moderate range.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models indicate dry conditions to begin the weekend. However, another storm system may track east of the region early next week. Most of the associated precipitation may miss Michigan, but the resulting northwest winds should help bring in Good air quality early next week.

Next Forecast update: Friday, March 20, 2026

03/13/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, March 13, 2026 through Monday, March 16, 2026

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

A bit of a messy weekend is on tap leading up to St. Patrick’s Day early next week.  Friday’s weather is showing some accumulating snowfall moving in later this morning through midday, with the highest accumulations of 2-4 inches confined to areas along/north of M-46.  This is due to strong low-pressure system, which will continue to track across the Great Lakes region passing over northern lower Michigan Friday afternoon.  The most noticeable feature of Friday’s weather will likely be strong winds due to a very strong low level wind field.  This will bring the highest potential of winds gusts to 40-45 mph, or greater, by early afternoon as winds shift from southwest to west.

Seasonably cool air filters back into the region with drier and much less windy conditions, Saturday, with chilly daytime temperatures likely not reaching 40 degrees.

An active weather pattern returns Saturday night through Sunday with another system set to impact much of the Great Lake’s region.  Fortunately, the southern half of the Lower Peninsula should miss the heaviest snowfall which could bring over 2 feet of snow for portions of northern Lower and the Upper Peninsula.  Snow potential is still 1-2 inches in the southern lower, however.  There is also potential for ice accumulation from freezing rain in Central Michigan Sunday through Sunday night with some computer model solutions producing over a quarter- inch of ice.

Behind the backside of the low, during Monday, a change over to lake-enhanced snow and strong winds is expected, with Southwest Michigan getting in on continued winter weather impacts.  Prolonged heavy snow will also be possible across northern or central Lake Huron, pending the final track of the system.

Winter is not over but Spring is just around the corner.  On a positive note, Good Air Quality is expected throughout the state, and the trend should continue into early next week. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Qulity is expected to continue to be mostly Good entering the upcoming work week.

03/09/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, March 9, 2026 through Friday, March 13, 2026

 PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) with scattered Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) throughout the forecast period.

  FORECAST DISCUSSION

 The week begins with Good Air Quality throughout the state, and the trend should continue through the majority of the work week.  The quiet, tranquil weather we see Monday morning should persist into Tuesday morning with the potential for severe weather Tuesday evening into Tuesday night.  The Storm Prediction Center has increased our chance of severe weather bumping the threat from a marginal to a slight chance.

 Locally heavy rain looks more than possible from Tuesday afternoon through Wednesday.  We are likely looking at swaths of one to possibly two inches of rain especially from I-96 to the south.  Rivers are higher now given recent rains so additional precipitation will likely push quite a few river basin locations to near flood stage.

 This is Michigan and just because March has arrived does not mean winter is over.  A potent clipper system is expected to sweep from west to east through the area Thursday night into Friday.  Accumulating snow is potentially expected across Central Lower Michigan with this system, albeit warming surface conditions should keep it to a minimum.

 A preview of the weekend shows seasonable temperatures in the lower 40’s with a chance of rain/snow shower activity.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to continue to be mostly Good entering the upcoming weekend. 

03/06/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday March 6th, 2026, through Monday March 9th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Above average temperatures and rainy conditions are on the docket for the start of this first weekend in March. Many of us Michiganders woke up this Friday morning to foggy conditions with temperatures ranging from the mid-30s to mid-40s with the southwestern part of the state currently sitting in a warm sector of air. This is due to a lifting warm front which will cross over the lower peninsula through the day today and into tomorrow, Saturday. With it, there is the potential for storms Friday evening and early Saturday morning. Aside from storm potential, essentially all of Michigan will have seen a good, soaking rain come Saturday evening once the low-pressure system carrying the frontal boundary exits to the east. Once out of the area, we start to dry out later into the evening on Saturday with slightly cooler temperatures and breezy conditions. As a gift from Mother Nature though, Michiganders will wake up Sunday to clearing skies and increasing temperatures into the mid-40s to mid-to-upper-50s. This warming trend continues into Monday with the 60s making a return to the lower peninsula and the 40s for the upper peninsula due to a cold front lingering in the straits area.

For air quality, Friday will see the highest PM-2.5 concentrations in the mid-Moderate range, leftover from stagnant morning conditions. Once winds pick up and surface heating helps to break up the inversion in place, PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to decrease as the aforementioned front moves in Friday afternoon. The rain on Friday evening and Saturday morning will help to continually decrease PM-2.5 concentrations even more along with wind direction which will shift to more northwesterly flow come Saturday evening. The combination of rain and wind direction shifts will drop concentrations down and overall air quality is expected to be in the Good range come Saturday evening and through Sunday. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Warmer temperatures start off the next work week with air quality remaining in the Good range.

Next Forecast update: Monday March 9th, 2026

03/02/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday March 2nd, 2026, through Friday March 6th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Meteorological spring is here with the calendar turning to March. This week will see a steady increase in surface temperatures from southerly winds with much of the state today, Monday, sitting near normal for temperatures for this time of the year. As we get into Tuesday, the mid-40s makes a return to the state with some spotty rain showers in southern portions. More widespread rain looks cross over the lower peninsula come Thursday as temperatures attempt to climb into the 50s. For the work week, the tip of the temperature iceberg will be Friday with the 60s making a return to the lower peninsula with the upper peninsula staying steady in the mid-40s.

Along with the increase in temperature and rain showers this week, winds will be rather light as we will be between systems for much of the week. With the increasing temperatures and light southerly winds, PM-2.5 concentrations can be expected to increase, especially in the morning and afternoon rush hour timeframes. Surface inversions can be expected during morning hours as the warmer temperatures move in and cap off the atmosphere for a few hours before winds pick up. Aside from rain showers helping to clean out the atmosphere, concentrations in the Moderate range should be expected with the possibility of hourly Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups concentrations, especially in the middle to latter half of the work week. As of now, these concentrations do not look to be as long-lasting as a few weeks ago but should still be noted. Any changes that warrant an update will be made.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

A warm and potentially rainy weekend is ahead with air quality in the Good to Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Friday March 6th, 2026

02/27/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday February 27th, 2026, through Monday March 2nd, 2026

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Meteorological spring is upon us this upcoming Sunday, March 1st, with Old Man Winter holding onto our temperatures for much of the weekend. We start off today, Friday, with above normal temperatures and ample sunshine with surface temperatures ranging from the upper-40s to mid-50s across the state. Southwesterly flow will be felt throughout the region with warmer air being brought in with gusty conditions throughout the afternoon. Come Saturday, however, a cold front moves in from the north which will slowly overtake the entire state and shift winds back to northerly flow, thus dropping temperatures down to near seasonal norms. With the cold front, a round of snow showers is expected Saturday night into Sunday with only minimal impacts. The cooler trend continues into Sunday with temperatures just below seasonal norms in the mid to upper 20s, but sunshine is expected due to High-pressure returning after the frontal boundary on Saturday exits the region. Clear skies hang around into Monday with slight temperature improvements into the 30s.

Warmer temperatures and southerly flow today will increase PM-2.5 concentrations into the mid-Moderate range due to a somewhat weak atmospheric inversion during the morning hours. With the winds Friday afternoon, however, the inversion will not last and concentrations will be able to disperse with the breezy conditions. Once the cooler conditions return on Saturday and Sunday, PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to drop back into the Good range. Ozone season officially starts on Sunday, March 1st which will bring back the Ozone part of this forecast, although we typically do not start seeing Ozone increase until the April timeframe.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

A warming trend is on the horizon for mid-next week and so on, air quality will remain in the Good to Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Monday March 2nd, 2026

02/23/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday February 23, 2026, through Friday February 27, 2026

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A return to seasonal normal temperatures is on the docket for this week after early last week’s false spring. Many of us Michiganders are waking up to fresh snowfall this Monday morning as a quick hitting system moved over the state during the day Sunday and into this morning. Lake-effect snow bands are still accumulating snow over the snowbelts with a few extra inches expected in those areas. Some of us receive a slight break in snow before another system moves into the region from the north which will drop another two inches or so across the state with snowbelt areas receiving slightly more. This system will move out of the area come Wednesday before a High-pressure system moves in on Thursday. Sunshine is expected when this system moves in and southward across the state as we move into Friday which will see the High-pressure to our south. As the High-pressure moves south, winds will shift with it and provide southerly flow and warmer temperatures. The 40s looks to make a return for a good majority of the state Friday and into the last day of February on Saturday.

For air quality, rather consistent airmass change this week will help to keep PM-2.5 concentrations low as clean air will continually be brought in. PM-2.5 concentrations may see an increase in the latter half of the week with warmer temperatures and surface inversions. As of now, however, low-to-mid Moderate concentrations are expected. With February ending this weekend, the Ozone season officially starts on Sunday, March 1. Although we typically do not see Ozone increases until the middle of April, the Ozone forecast will make a return in the upcoming month of March. 

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Southerly flow will provide warmer temperatures for the start of the weekend, but a cold front moves through just in time for Sunday, which will cool us back down into the upper-20s. Air quality will return to the Good range after a few potential peaks into the Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Friday February 27, 2026

02/20/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, February 20, 2026 through Monday, February 23, 2026

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to start mostly Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) transitioning to Good (AQI Green) throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

The snow has melted in most of the Lower Peninsula and warmer temperatures have given us a taste of upcoming Spring weather.  It was quite refreshing to emerge from our winter dungeons and enjoy fresh air that did not hurt to breathe.

We will take a step back this weekend, however, as we return to some colder air, albeit not nearly as cold as what we experienced during January and early February.  Friday will feature windy conditions as a deep low-pressure system passes through the upper half of the state.  The wrap-around winds will shift to the west and northwest following the exit of the low-pressure system.

Friday’s weather, along with the wind, will feature drizzly rain showers, low clouds, and falling temperatures, eventually giving way to scattered afternoon snow showers.  For the remainder of the weekend, our Spring teaser ends with temperatures in the 20s to 30s.

On a positive note, Air Quality will improve as we finally get a clean out from the somewhat murky air of the past few days.  Thus, the weekend should feature AQI’s transitioning from scattered Moderate to mostly Good.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to a mix of mostly Good entering the upcoming work week. 

02/17/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday, February 17, 2026 through Friday, February 20, 2026

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Most people are aware of the elevated fine particulate episode we endured in SE Michigan over the weekend.  The news media attached themselves to the narrative that melting snow was directly emitting particulates into the atmosphere.  Unfortunately, this is a misrepresentation of the role that melting snow plays in the formation of fine particulates.  Does melting snow directly emit particulates to the atmosphere as it melts? Absolutely not…  Can melting snow play a role in the formation of fine particulates. Yes, assuming other elements are in play.

Those other elements include a solid snowpack which keeps the air near the ground cold.  Next you have warm air overriding the cold surface, as we did with temperatures nearing 60 degrees.  With warm air overriding cold air, the atmosphere is very stable with air tending to sink towards the ground.  Add to that a persistent high-pressure dome which created a strong inversion layer, especially during the nighttime hours.  That inversion layer can be near the surface effectively trapping the increasing dirty air already hugging the ground.  A review of the upper air sounding, Sunday morning, showed that capping inversion layer began only 30 meters above the ground.  Consider, too, all the particulates from road salt dust kicked up by urban scale traffic along with all the primary and secondary fine particulates from vehicle emissions. home/industrial heating, and industrial processes being continually pumped into that shallow layer of air trapped near the ground.  Compounding the issue is increased moisture from the snow melt which can act as a catalyst for forming secondary particles and also act as a nuclei for other particulates. 

With all those pollutants being crammed into this tight 30-meter layer, it was not surprising to see increasing particulate readings.  The AQD forecaster observed all the elements coming together and appropriately issued an advisory.  The forecasters decided to extend the advisory through noon, Monday, when winds were expected to increase allowing for cleaner air to mix down.  This forecast was accurate as we did experience several SE Michigan monitors cross into the USG range.

Following this event on social media, I observed several comments to the effect that people had never seen this phenomena before.  Actually, it is quite common for this to occur during this time of year, albeit to different degrees.  This was more a of “perfect storm” where all the contributing elements were at an extreme causing higher concentrations.

The rest of the work week should feature AQI’s in the Moderate range.  While we do not see a complete cleanout during the week, most of the elements described above are no longer in play.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to a mix of Good to Moderate entering the upcoming weekend. 

02/13/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday February 13th, 2026, through Tuesday February 17th, 2026

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) range with possible Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Orange AQI) hourly concentrations.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Above average temperatures and ample sunlight will be observed this weekend in mid-February as High-pressure dominates the weather regime over the next few days. Along with keeping skies mostly clear, the High-pressure will shift winds to more southerly flow which will bring in the warmer air. Upper-30s to upper-40s will be seen across the state with some areas in southern Michigan potentially seeing the 50s in the latter half of the weekend and into Presidents’ Day on Monday. After numerous weeks of bone-chilling temperatures and plenty of snow, this weekend will provide a well-deserved break.

While warmer temperatures will be a nice change, they will pose a threat to air quality as snow will steadily melt throughout the weekend and release particulates into the air in doing so. The High-pressure will also stagnate winds which will allow PM-2.5 concentrations to accumulate due to inefficient to non-existent air dispersion. The set up at hand is looking like a classic winter PM-2.5 event with the combination of warming temperatures, melting snow and light winds. As an indicator of what is ahead, there is currently an inversion in place this Friday morning which essentially caps off any dispersion in the atmosphere, near the surface. Long-lasting inversions should be expected throughout this weekend, especially with most of Michigan covered with snow. What is expected to occur is warmer temperatures will move in, but the snowpack across Michigan will present cooler temperatures near the surface, so we will potentially have warmer air over cooler air. That set up is what causes a surface inversion which, as stated above, creates stagnant conditions. With the ingredients in place, PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate range in the days ahead with some hourly concentrations approaching or exceeding the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG) range. I do not expect multiple hours in the USG range as of now, but if conditions warrant a forecast update, one will be sent out.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The warming trend continues into next week with the peak of temperatures looking to be Wednesday. Due to the warming temperatures, air quality will remain in the Moderate range.

Next Forecast update, as of now: Tuesday February 17th, 2026

02/09/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday February 9th, 2026, through Friday February 13th, 2026

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

As we approach the middle of February, a quick thaw is in store for Tuesday with surface temperatures potentially reaching the 40s in some southern Michigan areas. This is due to a pressure system and associated warm front that will eclipse southern portion of the state throughout Tuesday. On the back side, however, temperatures cool back down to below freezing until we reach the latter half of the week when temperatures jump back up above freezing statewide. There does not appear to be any snowmakers heading towards the Great Lakes state, aside from local lake-effect snow showers predominantly in the Upper Peninsula.

For air quality, with a few days this week in the mid-to-upper 30s F, melting snow may lead to increases in PM-2.5 concentrations into the upper Moderate range. These increases are expected to be limited to a few hours, especially on Tuesday when wind speeds will help to disperse any particulate release. The second warm up during the latter half of the week may see lighter winds so mid-to-high Moderate concentrations may hang around longer. If any changes in the forecast warrant an update, one will be sent out. But overall, mid-Moderate PM-2.5 concentrations should be expected this week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

We may see a weekend completely above freezing ahead of us, which may cause an increase in PM-2.5 concentrations. A closer look will be made later this week.

Next Forecast update: Friday February 13th, 2026

02/06/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, February 6, 2026 through Monday, February 9, 2026

 PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) to Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) throughout the forecast period.

  FORECAST DISCUSSION

 Even though we are only about three weeks away from meteorological spring, Old Man Winter is not relinquishing his grip on Michigan.  Friday morning awakens to light snowy conditions thanks to a shortwave of low pressure to our southwest.  Although its effects should be gone by noon, it did make the Friday morning commute a bit messy. 

 The main weather feature of Friday weather, however, is an Arctic front which will work its way through the state during the afternoon hours.  While not much snow is expected, temperatures will once again drop to below average levels.  Is there any relief in sight?  Hopefully, yes, as the computer models are showing some moderating temperatures during next week.  While not yet sunbathing weather, it does look like we break the freezing mark for a few days and may finally start a slow melt before hitting another short cold spell by the end of the work week.

 In terms of Air Quality, we have a mixture of Good and Low Moderate Air Quality which should persist throughout the weekend.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good to Low Moderate entering the upcoming work week with slight moderating temperatures. 

02/02/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, February 2, 2026 through Friday, February 6, 2026

 PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) to Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) throughout the forecast period.

  FORECAST DISCUSSION

 As February arrives, light snow will move through the area during Monday as a shortwave of low-pressure approaches and moves through the region.  This area of snow could switch over to light freezing drizzle during Monday afternoon although little, if any, accumulation is expected.

 The remainder of the work week should be mostly dry with near normal temperatures for this time of year.  This is a break from the bitter cold of recent.  A check of climatic records shows that the daily highs in the Lansing area have been between -12 and -28 degrees below normal for the past nine days. For this week, however, forecasts show high temperatures in the 20’s and nearing the freezing mark by Friday.

 The moderating temperatures look to be short lived as models are in general agreement that a surge of colder air will push into the Great Lakes region Friday night into Saturday.  Saturday temperatures look similar to days in the recent past with highs only in the teens and lows in the single digits.  Fortunately, the bitterly cold air does not stay long as it is projected to be pushed out of the Midwest region by Monday.

 In terms of Air Quality, we have a mixture of Good and Low Moderate Air Quality conditions which should persist throughout the week.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good to Low Moderate entering the upcoming weekend. 

Next forecast update: Friday, February 6, 2026

01/30/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, January 30, 2026 through Monday, February 2, 2026

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) with scattered Low Moderates (AQI Yellow) throughout the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

January finally comes to an end, Saturday, and while it will not make much difference in the current cold weather snap, we can optimistically say the meteorological spring is one month away.  And while this certainly seems like the winter that will never end, things will get a slight bit warmer by the end of the weekend. 

High pressure moves over the region during the weekend giving us a break from the clouds.  While it will be nice to see some sun, the lack of clouds at night will drop temperatures back below the zero-degree mark.  As the high slides eastward, we do get into some southwest winds.  It will not give us a thaw but by Sunday, daytime highs temperature should reach the mid-20’s and nighttime lows should stay above the zero-degree mark.

That trend should persist through the upcoming week, although with no real chance to break the freezing mark.  The long-range forecast has another blast of Arctic air dropping south over the region, next weekend, so Old Man Winter is not leaving anytime soon.

In terms of Air Quality, Good Air Quality should begin the weekend with increasingly scattered Moderates by the end of the weekend as temperature moderate a bit.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good to Moderate entering the upcoming work week. 

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Friday, January 30, 2026

Next forecast update: Monday, February 2, 2026