OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range between Good (AQI Green) and High Moderate (AQI Yellow).
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly High Moderate (AQI Yellow) with scattered Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG) (AQI Orange), especially in the Northern Lower Peninsula and Upper Peninsula.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
As I checked the current Wednesday morning monitor readings I was relieved to see more Moderate readings than USG or Unhealthy. It has been over a week since that has occurred, and those monitors are continuing to trend downward! Yes, when you looked outside, this morning, you were still seeing hazy conditions. Although trending downward, the current High Moderate concentrations will not give us the bright blue skies we have been seeking. Fortunately, much of this morning’s haze comes from high humidity and good, old fashion fog. That fog should burn off and some haze will persist, but it should not be as bad as what we have been experiencing for well over a week. As a result, all current Air Quality Advisories for smoke will be discontinued beginning Thursday, although High Moderate conditions are likely to persist.
The air quality smoke models indicate that this improvement trend should continue. The long-range smoke models have a bit of elevated smoke touching the western U.P. during Monday but that remains to be seen.
The southerly winds we are expecting beginning Thursday should keep the Canadian smoke at bay, but it will bring heat and humidity for the foreseeable future. As mentioned in previous forecasts, elevated ozone could be our next challenge. A review of yesterday’s Midwest monitor summary showed some elevated ozone around Chicago and Milwaukee. The easterly winds that are pushing the smoke out of Michigan are also keeping most of the ozone producing chemicals on their side of the lake. Since it is hard to predict if enough leftover smoke residue is around Michigan to produce ozone, plus southerly winds bringing heat, humidity, and potentially dirtier air from down south, we will update this forecast Thursday morning.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Air Quality remains in question while some leftover smoke residue remains in the air and ozone levels may increase.