FORECAST SUMMARY:
Monday, July 8th, 2019 through Friday, July 12th, 2019
Ozone: 8-hour Ozone concentrations will range between Good and Moderate.
PM-2.5: 24-hour Fine Particulate concentrations will also be in the Good to Moderate range.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Pleasant July weather can be expected Monday and Tuesday with plenty of sunshine and seasonable temperatures. One notable feature will be the hazy sunshine due to smoke in the upper atmosphere associated with wildfires burning in Canada. A weather change comes into play Wednesday as a low-pressure area crossing the upper Great Lakes region brings a cold front through. High pressure then builds back in for the end of the week.
As for air quality, cooler upper level temperatures and southeasterly winds should keep ozone from increasing higher than Moderate Monday or Tuesday. Clouds increase Wednesday in most locations which should keep ozone Good to Moderate. However, with the later frontal passage in the southeast, more sunshine is expected. This coupled with southwesterly winds and warmer surface and upper levels temperatures may produce increased ozone in that portion of the state. Weather maps will be re-evaluated Tuesday and this forecast will be updated if ozone levels change. Northwesterly winds develop after the Wednesday frontal passage bringing back Good ozone readings.
Fine particulate will likely linger in the upper Good to Moderate range most of the week.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Extended models show high pressure in place for the coming weekend and models also differ on chances for precipitation. Models do, however, agree that another warmup is in store. Regional forecasters will be talking Friday morning to discuss the potential for increased pollution levels later in the period.