FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday August 12, 2025, through Friday August 15, 2025
Ozone:
Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.
PM-2.5:
PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (yellow AQI) range with potential hourly concentrations in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Orange AQI) range.
Air Quality Advisory for the Upper Peninsula until noon on Tuesday, August 12th
The Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy (EGLE) has issued an Air Quality Advisory for elevated levels of fine particulate (PM2.5) across the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Pollutants within those areas are expected to be in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG, Orange AQI) range.
The Air Quality Advisory includes the following counties:
Alger, Baraga, Chippewa, Delta, Dickinson, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron, Keweenaw, Luce, Mackinac, Marquette, Menominee, Ontonagon, Schoolcraft
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Currently, there is an Air Quality Advisory in place for the Upper Peninsula which will be expiring at noon today, Tuesday August 12th. Most recent smoke models are showing the plume becoming less and less intense as we get into Tuesday afternoon and evening. Now, there may be a possibility of hourly USG (Orange AQI) concentrations, but overall concentrations are expected to remain in the mid-to-high Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.
Later this evening and into overnight, a cold front will cross over the Great Lake region, providing a good chance at rain showers across Michigan. This cold front will also shift winds to a more northerly direction, initially northwesterly, before turning to a more northeasterly direction on Thursday. With the shift in winds, our eyes will be watching for any more smoke intrusions later this week, but as of now, smoke, and associated PM-2.5 concentrations look to remain in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) range through the remainder of this week.
For Ozone, after today, as mentioned above, winds shift to an unfavorable direction for Ozone development for the remainder of the work week, so Ozone does not pose a real threat for the next couple of days. Today may see an increase into the high-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range, but with chances of rain and northerly winds this week, Ozone will remain in the Good to Moderate range.
Surface temperature-wise, we still hang around the 80s for the majority of Michigan with ample sunlight with the exception of later Tuesday and early Wednesday. A weaker cold front looks to impact us on Thursday, but a slight change of wind direction looks to be the only impact, with little to no chance of rain expected. Air and dewpoint temperatures look to climb as we approach the end of this week with the weekend ahead looking to be similar to last weekend: hot and muggy.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
A similar set up compared to last weekend is expected to occur this upcoming weekend with heat and humidity returning. Air quality is expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.
Next Forecast update: Friday August 15, 2025