FORECAST SUMMARY: Sunday June 28th, 2026, through Monday June 29th, 2026
Ozone:
Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) to hourly Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Orange AQI) range.
PM-2.5:
PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Michigan is preparing for the first heat wave of the summer with Extreme Heat Watches being issued as I type out this forecast. Today, Sunday, will see temperatures start to ramp up into the low-to-mid 80s with relatively lower humidity compared to what is to come.
We start out with predominantly easterly flow, but this will shift throughout the day to more SSE flow as a frontal boundary makes its way towards the Great Lakes. The boundary, a warm front, will not pass over us until Monday, which then will shift our winds to more southwesterly flow. That is when conditions become interesting for Ozone this week. Starting with tomorrow, winds become light over southeast Michigan, especially metro Detroit, which may pose a threat for Ozone development. A few factors are at play, however, which may help hinder development: pop-up showers with the passing of the front, and periodic cloudiness. Southeast Michigan will be watched throughout today as this forecast will be updated tomorrow, so if conditions change and warrant an Air Quality Alert, one will be issued Monday morning.
West and southwest Michigan look to be unscathed tomorrow for the most part, although Moderate conditions should be expected. The easterly flow for most of the day will push the Ozone plume to the west side of Lake Michigan. However, as the day carries on and the winds are shifting, the northwest lower peninsula and the southern upper peninsula may see increases into the upper-Moderate to low-Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range. This is not expected to occur until later in the evening, so those concentrations are expected to be short-lived as the sun will be setting and the solar intensity will be less so.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
This forecast will be updated tomorrow, Monday, to look at Tuesday which poses a threat of Ozone development in west and southwest Michigan.
Next Forecast update: Monday June 29th, 2026