FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday July 6th, 2026, through Tuesday, July 7th, 2026
Ozone:
Ozone concentrations in the Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow) range are expected.
PM2.5:
PM2.5 concentrations are expected to average between Good and Low-Moderate range.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Pollutant concentrations over the July 4th holiday weekend remained in check. As expected, areas with fireworks displays experienced brief spikes in fine particulate matter, but these increases were short‑lived, lasting only a few hours. Daily PM2.5 averages stayed within the low to mid Moderate range. Ozone levels followed a similar trend, largely held down by elevated humidity.
High pressure will dominate the region through the start of the first full week of July, bringing seasonable temperatures and noticeably lower humidity compared to last week. As the week progresses, a boundary will sink southward from Canada, introducing chances for precipitation across northern areas from late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Farther south, precipitation will be slow to arrive, and dry conditions with seasonable temperatures are expected to continue under a northeasterly wind flow. By Thursday, the boundary is forecast to continue its southward track, bringing precipitation chances to central and southern locations.
Northeasterly winds into Tuesday should limit ozone and PM2.5 development. PM2.5 concentrations are expected to average mostly in the Good range Monday and Tuesday. For ozone, 8‑hour averages may reach the Moderate range, and air quality models indicate a low‑end USG potential in the southeast on Tuesday; however, we anticipate levels will remain mostly Moderate. As high pressure shifts east, southerly winds will develop ahead of the mid‑week frontal boundary. Increasing sunshine and warmer temperatures may support ozone increases toward the USG range. Because of this potential, we will be updating the air quality forecast tomorrow (Tuesday) to determine whether an Air Quality Alert will be warranted.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Air quality in the Moderate range may persist into the extended period.
Next Forecast update: Tuesday July 7th, 2026