FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday, July 16, 2026 through Friday, July 17, 2026
Air Quality Alert for Thursday and Friday, July 16-17, 2026
The Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy (EGLE) is issuing a statewide Air Quality Alert for elevated levels of fine particulate (PM2.5) for Thursday and Friday, July 16-17, 2026.
PM2.5: During Thursday and Friday, pollutants are expected to Very Unhealthy (AQI Purple) in the Lower Peninsula and Hazardous (AQI Maroon) in the Upper Peninsula.
Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow) for the forecast period.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
A statewide Air Quality Alert remains in place, along with heat advisories for Thursday as Canadian wildfires, north of the Minnesota arrowhead continue to burn, out of control, and are spreading. A review of the Thursday morning monitor readings is showing AQI impacts ranging from Very Unhealthy to Hazardous throughout the state. Unfortunately, those conditions will persist throughout Thursday and into Friday.
Observed smoke concentrations are unprecedented and far exceed the smoke events of 2023 and 2025. This can be blamed on the nearness of the fires (north of the Minnesota arrowhead region) and the large number and size of fires in that area. A front dropped through the region on Wednesday trapping and dragging that smoke southward to complete the picture.
The big question is how long will this last. Indications are that Friday will likely be a repeat of Thursday. As such, we will be keeping the forecast for Hazardous in the Upper Peninsula and Very Unhealthy in the Lower Peninsula.
Our best model for smoke only predicts out to 48 hours. That model is currently showing improvements on Saturday, but it is likely that smoke will linger and recirculate for a while. The National Weather Service mentions the possibility of rain on Saturday, which would help. The Friday forecast will shed more light on that.
In the meantime, is recommended to avoid strenuous outdoor activities, especially those with heart disease and respiratory conditions like asthma. Watch for symptoms including wheezing, coughing, chest tightness, dizziness, or burning in nose, throat, and eyes. You can help reduce air pollution by limiting activities, such as outdoor burning. Keep windows closed overnight to prevent smoke from getting indoors and, if possible, run central air conditioning with MERV-13 or higher rated filters.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Air Quality is expected to be to range between Very Unhealthy and Hazardous. Forecasts will continue to be updated frequently this week, to keep track of any unexpected changes.
Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Thursday, July 16, 2026
Next forecast update: Friday, July 17, 2026