FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday February 13th, 2026, through Tuesday February 17th, 2026
PM-2.5:
PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) range with possible Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Orange AQI) hourly concentrations.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Above average temperatures and ample sunlight will be observed this weekend in mid-February as High-pressure dominates the weather regime over the next few days. Along with keeping skies mostly clear, the High-pressure will shift winds to more southerly flow which will bring in the warmer air. Upper-30s to upper-40s will be seen across the state with some areas in southern Michigan potentially seeing the 50s in the latter half of the weekend and into Presidents’ Day on Monday. After numerous weeks of bone-chilling temperatures and plenty of snow, this weekend will provide a well-deserved break.
While warmer temperatures will be a nice change, they will pose a threat to air quality as snow will steadily melt throughout the weekend and release particulates into the air in doing so. The High-pressure will also stagnate winds which will allow PM-2.5 concentrations to accumulate due to inefficient to non-existent air dispersion. The set up at hand is looking like a classic winter PM-2.5 event with the combination of warming temperatures, melting snow and light winds. As an indicator of what is ahead, there is currently an inversion in place this Friday morning which essentially caps off any dispersion in the atmosphere, near the surface. Long-lasting inversions should be expected throughout this weekend, especially with most of Michigan covered with snow. What is expected to occur is warmer temperatures will move in, but the snowpack across Michigan will present cooler temperatures near the surface, so we will potentially have warmer air over cooler air. That set up is what causes a surface inversion which, as stated above, creates stagnant conditions. With the ingredients in place, PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate range in the days ahead with some hourly concentrations approaching or exceeding the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG) range. I do not expect multiple hours in the USG range as of now, but if conditions warrant a forecast update, one will be sent out.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
The warming trend continues into next week with the peak of temperatures looking to be Wednesday. Due to the warming temperatures, air quality will remain in the Moderate range.
Next Forecast update, as of now: Tuesday February 17th, 2026