5/20/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

THURSDAY, MAY 20TH, 2021 THROUGH FRIDAY, MAY 21ST, 2021

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range from Good to Moderate with USG possible in the west and southeast, especially Friday.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will range between upper Good to middle Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

As expected, warm and humid weather is in place across the state. Ridging at the surface and upper levels will keep this trend going the next few days. Cloud cover has been the difficult part to the forecast and that holds true as we move towards the weekend. Less clouds than expected were seen Tuesday and three monitors in the eastern part of the state reached low-end USG. Wednesday concentrations improved and levels did not reach higher than Moderate.

After evaluating most recent forecast maps we feel conditions Friday are conducive for ozone development in parts of the state; therefore, we are issuing Air Quality Action Day Advisories in both west and southeast Michigan. Increased temperatures, southwest winds, and less cloud cover than expected earlier this week is what lead to our decision to issue the Action Days. In other parts of the state, while it will be warm and muggy, clouds will be more prevalent and there are chances for scattered precipitation which should keep ozone in the Good to Moderate range.

Fine particulate has been a mix of upper Good to middle Moderate and without a change in airmass anticipated, readings in this range will continue.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show warmer conditions as the weekend begins, but a frontal boundary may bring precipitation chances Sunday. With the threat for increased ozone continuing Saturday, we will update this forecast tomorrow to detail weekend air quality conditions.

FORECAST UPDATED BY STEPHANIE HENGESBACH: THURSDAY, MAY 20th, 2021
NEXT FORECAST UPDATE: FRIDAY, MAY 21, 2021

5/17/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, May 17th, 2021 through Friday, May 21st, 2021

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range from Good to Moderate through the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will also range between Good to Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A warming trend will be seen this week but there are also on and off chances for precipitation. The expected forecast has high pressure dominating at the surface, and an upper-level ridge over the eastern U.S. Monday retrogrades west. This ridge produces south/southeast winds early in the week; however, the flow becomes more southwesterly around mid-week. The southwesterly flow at the surface and upper levels brings increased dew points, along with warmer temperatures. Disturbances moving along the upper-level flow keeps scattered precipitation chances through the period.

 As for air quality, I feel we’ll have a mix of Good and Moderate levels of both ozone and fine particulate through the week. Areas that are precipitation free and have more afternoon/evening sunshine will have the greatest chances for Moderate ozone. The threat for Moderate ozone will also increase past mid-week when winds become more southwesterly in nature. By Thursday and Friday, I expect more widespread Moderate ozone readings. We will send a forecast update Thursday if our thoughts on the current forecast changes to where we feel ozone into the USG range is a possibility Friday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show warmer temperatures through the coming weekend, but there are some questions on a frontal boundary, its associated cloud cover, and if/when precipitation will be seen. With uncertainty on the extended weather conditions, a forecast updated will be done Friday to better detail air quality levels for the weekend into early next week.

Forecast updated by Stephanie Hengesbach: Monday, May 17th, 2021
Next forecast update: Friday, May 21, 2021

5/10/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, May 10th, 2021 through Monday, May 17th, 2021

Ozone:  8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be Good through the forecast period.

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be mostly Good through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Cooler weather will persist during the first half of the week with some areas remaining under frost/freeze advisories.  While this weather pattern may have disrupted flower planting plans, Air Quality has been exceptionally Good during this period of cool weather.

High pressure begins migrating into the area during Wednesday and will dominate our weather through the weekend.  Temperatures should rebound back into the upper 60’s by the end of the work week.  Warmer weather and more seasonal temperatures should arrive, next week.

In the meantime, cooler weather and favorable winds will keep Michigan Air Quality mostly Good through the forecast period.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, May 10th, 2021
Next forecast update: Monday, May 17th, 2021

5/3/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, May 3rd, 2021 through Monday, May 10th, 2021

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to be Good through the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations should be mostly Good with a few periods of low Moderates possible.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

After a warm Sunday across much of the state, cooler temperatures along with cloudy skies and chances for precipitation are in the forecast through Tuesday. High pressure dries conditions out Wednesday, but cooler temperatures stick around. Slight chances for precipitation exist Thursday and/or Friday as weak disturbances tracks near the region.

As for air quality, Good fine particulate and ozone is anticipated most of this week thanks to clouds and cooler temperatures. Sunshine returns Wednesday, but northerly winds keep both surface and upper levels cool not allowing pollution to develop. A mix of clouds and sun, along with slight chances for showers end the workweek, but again, northerly winds and cooler temperatures should keep pollution levels generally Good.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show high pressure on Saturday with dry conditions and slightly warmer temperatures. This may be short-lived, however, because the next system brings precipitation back in the forecast Sunday into Monday. Fine particulate could reach low-Moderate Saturday, otherwise, pollution levels should be Good through early next week.

Forecast Updated by Stephanie M. Hengesbach Monday May 3rd, 2021.
Next forecast update: Monday, May 10th, 2021

4/26/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, April 26th, 2021 through Monday, May 3rd, 2021

OZONE: 8-Hour average Ozone concentrations may reach Moderate across parts of central/southern Michigan Tuesday, otherwise expect Good levels the rest of the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to range from upper Good to middle Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

We usually begin forecasting ozone on May 1st, but weather conditions Tuesday may cause Moderate ozone across central and southern parts of the state. Because of that, we’ve added ozone to the forecast a few days early. Good ozone and fine particulate are expected Monday with south/southeast winds, partly to mostly cloudy skies, and slight chances for afternoon precipitation.

Late Monday, into Tuesday a warm front lifts north into the state. South of the boundary expect some sunshine, good south/southwesterly winds, and warm surface and upper-level temperatures. This combination could allow ozone to reach Moderate in central and southern locations. Clouds and precipitation chances keep readings Good further north.

The frontal boundary lingers across northern lower into midweek then a wave traveling along the front pushes the boundary east and away from the region Thursday into Friday. Clouds and precipitation keep ozone Good Wednesday and Thursday. Without a period of prolonged stagnation, fine particulate through Thursday shouldn’t reach higher than low Moderate.

High-pressure building in Friday brings sunshine, but cool northerly winds prevail. Air quality will end the workweek in the Good range.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show differences in precipitation chances for the weekend. For now, it looks like quiet conditions remain Saturday, but another system may bring precipitation Sunday and/or Monday. If this general forecast pans out, ozone should remain Good and fine particulate shouldn’t reach higher than upper Good to low Moderate.

Forecast Updated by Stephanie M. Hengesbach Monday April 26th ,2021.
Next forecast update: Monday, May 3rd, 2021

4/19/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, April 19th, 2021 through Monday, April 26th, 2021

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good through the entirety of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

After being teased with some nice, warm Spring weather, the forecast area is expected to get a rude reminder of the Winter weather we hoped had been left behind.

A strong cold front will be crossing the state during Monday followed by falling temperatures.  As that front settles into Indiana and Ohio during Tuesday, another band of upper-level energy will be riding up the Ohio Valley setting the stage for some precipitation north of the front.  With the cold air residing over the state Tuesday and Wednesday, the chances are good that we could see up to 2-3 inches of snow during the evening and nighttime hours in some lower-mid-Michigan areas.  Winds will be northwesterly and Air Quality Good.

The remainder of the work week will feature cold nights during the middle of the week with gradual warming as high pressure settles in by the end of the week.  The wind patterns will be mostly west to northwest providing mostly Good Air Quality.

Winds turn more southerly for Saturday until another front passes Sunday morning.  Temperatures will be cooler and northwest winds following the front will keep Air Quality Good. 

The extended forecast shows significant warming during the beginning of the next work week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to Low Moderate going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, April 19th, 2021
Next forecast update: Monday, April 26th, 2021

4/12/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, April 12th, 2021 through Monday, April 19th, 2021

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good through the entirety of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

I am expecting mostly Good Air Quality, under favorably cool winds, throughout the forecast period. 

As of Monday morning, what we call a cut off, or closed low is currently positioned over Lake Erie.  The nature of a closed low is such that it spins while being cut off from the general atmospheric circulation and tends to move slowly.  As it sits there and spins with little encouragement to move, it will provide clouds and scattered rain showers over our area.  Westerly winds at the surface will reenforce Good conditions.

It will take the next upper level low pressure cell to nudge that Monday system on to the east.  By Wednesday, the new low pressure system will be over Michigan and I expect that to be the coolest day of the week along with scattered shower activity. 

The rest of the forecast period should feature gradual warming temperatures and dry weather.  Persistent northwest winds will be clean and Air Quality will be Good!

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, April 12th, 2021
Next forecast update: Monday, April 19th, 2021

4/5/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, April 5th, 2021 through Monday, April 12th, 2021

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to range from upper Good to middle Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Above normal temperatures are anticipated this week, and a frontal boundary lingering over the region keeps on and off precipitation in the forecast. The unsettled conditions will hinder any prolonged stagnation, therefore, fine particulate during the period is not expected to reach higher than middle Moderate. Better chances for precipitation exist late Wednesday into Thursday as low pressure moves into the region.

As for air quality, warmer temperatures and southerly winds keep fine particulate generally Moderate; however, areas further north that remains north of the boundary could see Good levels. Low pressure settling in on Thursday brings higher precipitation chances. This low remains over the area through the end of the week, and mostly Moderate fine particulate is expected to continue.

While hourly fine particulate concentrations could creep into the USG range for an hour or two any day during the forecast period, we anticipate the time-period to be short-lived and daily averages to remain Moderate. If we see changes to the weather conditions where we feel the daily average will reach USG, then we will submit a forecast update to detail the change.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show low pressure remaining in place through the coming weekend. Temperatures stay warmer than normal and chances for scattered precipitation continue. Moderate fine particulate will likely remain as we move into next week.

Forecast Updated by Stephanie M. Hengesbach, March 5th, 2021.
Next forecast update: Monday, April 12th, 2021

3/29/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, March 29th, 2021 through Monday, April 5th, 2021

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good during the week with some low Moderates this weekend.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

High pressure starts the week with southerly winds increasing Monday into Tuesday. A cold front passing late Tuesday/Wednesday brings chances for precipitation. In the wake of the front, cooler northerly winds could trigger scattered lake effect snow showers Wednesday. High pressure builds back in, dominating weather conditions through much of the weekend.

As for air quality, Good levels start the week and increasing winds into Tuesday should allow levels to remain Good. The cold front will bring in cooler, clean air keeping fine particulate levels Good through mid-week. Northerly winds continue Thursday; however, the flow becomes calmer Friday as high settles overhead. Fine particulate Friday and Saturday could be low Moderate at some locations, mostly confined to the southern portion of the state.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show high pressure dominating through the Easter weekend, but an approaching system could bring precipitation back Monday. Southerly winds and increasing temperatures during the weekend should bring a mix of Good and Moderate fine particulate through Monday.

Forecast Updated by Stephanie M. Hengesbach, Monday March 29th, 2021.
Next forecast update: Monday, April 5th, 2021

3/22/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, March 22nd, 2021 through Monday, March 29th, 2021

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be a mixture of Good to Low Moderate Monday and Tuesday with mostly Good the remainder of the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The positioning of a low-pressure trough over the Plaines states, as of Monday morning, will cause warm southern air to continue flowing into the state.  That warm, moist southern air is not terribly dirty, but it will give us the best opportunity for Low Moderates during this forecast period until the associated cold front passes through on Wednesday.   

The remainder of the work week will have spotty rain and mostly Good Air Quality as another system moves up and across Southeast Michigan Thursday night and Friday morning. 

The weekend looks a bit cooler and continued clean with yet another system moving through on Sunday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, March 22nd, 2021
Next forecast update: Monday, March 29th, 2021

3/15/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, March 15th, 2021 through Monday, March 22nd, 2021

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good with the best chance of Low Moderates during Wednesday and late weekend.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A low pressure system will make its way across the Ohio Valley during the Monday and Tuesday time frame yielding easterly winds across Michigan.  While some precipitation in the form of rain, snow, and freezing drizzle may accompany this system as it passes to our south, Air Quality should remain mostly Good.

The best chance of any Moderate concentrations, this week, will likely be Wednesday as winds become calm and variable and some localized stagnation could occur.

A similar but stronger low pressure system is projected to follow the same track Thursday and Friday.  Brisk, clean northeasterly winds and Good Air Quality will prevail during this time to wrap up the work week. 

Warmer southerly winds return by Sunday with a chance of increasing fine particulates for the beginning of the next work week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to Low Moderate going into the next work week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, March 15th, 2021
Next forecast update: Monday, March 22nd, 2021

3/8/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, March 8th, 2021 through Monday, March 15th, 2021

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to range from middle Good to middle Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A spring warm up is expected this week as southerly winds help increase temperatures into the 50–60 degree range across portions of the state. The warmer conditions will be accompanied by increased chances for rain Wednesday into Thursday as a cold front moves through. Also expect will be melting snow in areas where accumulations still exist. Dry weather returns later in the week as high pressure settles overhead.

As for air quality, a weak front brings some clouds Monday, but the boundary pulls back north Tuesday bringing with it increased moisture and southerly winds. Fine particulate levels Monday will remain between Good and low Moderate, and readings should generally remain upper Good to middle Moderate through mid-week. Increasing chances for precipitation and stronger southerly winds should hamper a significant increase in fine particulate into Thursday; upper Good to middle Moderates should remain in place. Northerly winds develop by Friday as high pressure sinks in from the northwest ending the workweek with Good fine particulate.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show high pressure dominating Saturday with lighter winds, and the next system brings precipitation back late Sunday/early Monday. Without a prolonged period of stagnation through early next week, fine particulate higher than low to middle Moderate are not anticipated

Forecast Updated by Stephanie M. Hengesbach Monday, March 8th, 2021.
Next forecast update: Monday, March 15th, 2021.

3/1/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, March 1st, 2021 through Monday, March 8th, 2021

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be mostly Good with a sprinkling of Moderates during Tuesday and Wednesday.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Today (Monday) marks the beginning of meteorological Spring (March 1st), as opposed to astronomical Spring (March 20th).  Yes, I needed to insert the word “Spring” into my forecast!

During the past two weeks, observers have noted that fine particulate levels have been running well into the Moderate range throughout the Midwest.  This was due, in part, by warming temperatures over a melting snow base with calm nights and sinking air. 

That trend was finally broken up early Monday morning with the passage of a front.  Cleaner, dryer air has pushed out the accumulated fine particulates and we are back into the Good range.  The high pressure cell moving over Michigan during Monday will be quickly pushed out and replaced by a brief warming trend during Tuesday and Wednesday.  While I would expect some Low Moderates in the more urban areas, most of the state should stay in the Good range.

Colder, cleaner air should return on Thursday and persist through most of the forecast period keeping our Air Quality Good.  Southerly wind flow returns late in the weekend which could trigger another creep in fine particulates.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to Low Moderate going into next week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, March 1st, 2021
Next forecast update: Monday, March 8th, 2021

Forecast Update 2/22/2021

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, February 22nd, 2021 through Monday, March 1st, 2021

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to range from middle Good to middle/upper Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The weather forecast this week shows periods of snow as a couple of disturbances pass by. Moderating temperatures are also in the forecast which could reach above freezing at times. The warmer conditions are expected to last through the week and readings may be warm enough for precipitation to fall as rain at times. The highest chances for precipitation will be late Monday/early Tuesday, and again Wednesday. After the Wednesday system, weak high pressure moves in.

As for air quality, the weak front Monday decreased fine particulate concentrations but with warmer temperatures in place some locations may stay low Moderate. Over the next few days, west/northwest winds develop in the wake of each system, however, the flow quickly turns back southerly. Also, moderating temperatures continue over the region. Weak to southerly winds and warmer temperatures over the snowpack will likely keep Moderate fine particulate through Wednesday. By Thursday, high pressure moves in and moderating temperatures remain. Weaker winds and continued snowmelt will allow for increased fine particulate and mostly Moderate readings are expected.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show storm systems both Saturday and Monday. The exact timing of each is uncertain; however, warmer temperatures remain through the weekend keeping fine particulate mostly Moderate. A cooler and stronger northwest flow is anticipated behind the system early next week. If that pans out, fine particulate will improve Monday into Tuesday.

Forecast Update by Stephanie M. Hengesbach Monday March 22nd, 2021. Next forecast update: Monday, March 1st, 2021

2/16/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Tuesday, February 16th, 2021 through Monday, February 22nd, 2021

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be a mix of Good and Moderate during through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Extremely cold weather continues through the remainder of this work week.  As of Tuesday morning, a surface low is tracking though western New York, which will cause snow to end by mid-morning.  Weak northerly winds should keep Air Quality mostly Good through Tuesday.

Mostly calm winds with a slight southeast bias could lead to some Moderate levels during Wednesday.  During this recent cold snap, some higher concentrations have been observed during the late night and early morning hours as calm conditions tend to trap air near the cold ground surface.  Fortunately, that trapping breaks up during the morning hours such that the 24-hour average usually remains Good to Low Moderate.  Such may be the case on Wednesday.

The remainder of the work week should be under a weak northerly or westerly wind flow and more consistent Good Air Quality.

Low winds biased to a southerly component should return for the weekend along with the chance of Moderate conditions.  A warmup looks to be on track for early next week.  A melting snowpack will add moisture over a cold ground surface which will likely cause low-level trapping and higher fine particulates levels.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Moderate going into next week.
Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Tuesday, February 16th, 2021 Next forecast update: Monday, February 22nd, 2021

2/8/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, February 8th, 2021 through Tuesday, February 16th, 2021

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to range from middle Good to middle Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Cold conditions experienced this past weekend will continue over the next week and on and off snow showers are in the forecast as well. While most snow should remain near the most prone lake effect areas, a few disturbances moving through will enhance snow chances across the rest of the state at times.

As for air quality, weaker winds Monday could allow for Moderate fine particulate, especially across the southern portion of the state. The threat for Moderates continues this week, especially hourly readings early in the day across southern Michigan. Winds will not be strong, but the direction does turn northerly every few days helping to keep fine particulate from increasing. The range of fine particulate concentrations through Friday will be between upper Good and middle Moderate.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show uncertainties in an upcoming weekend system; however, it looks as if cold temperatures remain in place. With on and off systems moving through, an extended period of stagnation is not anticipated. Fine particulate readings higher than Moderate are not expected through early next week.

Forecast Updated by Stephanie M. Hengesbach Monday, February 8th, 2021. Next forecast update: Tuesday, February 16th, 2021.

2/1/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, February 1st, 2021 through Monday, February 8th, 2021

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good through the forecast period, except for the possibility of Moderates around mid-week.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The weekend storm system pulling off to the east coast is keeping snow chances in the forecast across the southeastern part of the state. In the west. a weak trough coming through Monday allows for lakeshore precipitation. After these systems move through, high pressure brings quiet conditions for a couple days. The quiet weather is expected to be short-lived, however, with the next system approaching Thursday. Initial precipitation Thursday could be mixed but expect a change to all snow Friday as temperatures drop.

As for air quality, fine particulate Monday and Tuesday remain generally Good thanks to northerly winds. Wind speeds decrease Wednesday as high pressure moves overhead and increases of fine particulate into the Moderate range are likely. Southwest winds and warmer temperatures Thursday could keep Moderate fine particulate around. A strong cold front passing Friday brings in cold air and a return to Good air quality.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show cold air ushering over the region for the coming weekend. There is uncertainty on precipitation chances; however, the takeaway is cold northerly winds will keep fine particulate Good early next week.

Forecast Updated by Meteorologist Stephanie M. Hengesbach Monday February 1st, 2021. Next forecast update: Monday, February 8th, 2021

1/25/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, January 25th, 2021 through Monday, February 1st, 2021

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be a mix of Good and Moderate during through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

So far, this has been a relatively dry winter with snowfall amounts well below average.  We should make up a little ground on that, Monday night and Tuesday, as a low-pressure cell passes to our south across the upper Ohio Valley.  While not a major event, we can still expect a few inches of new snow between the I-94 and I-96 corridor. 

As of Monday morning, we are seeing Moderate levels of PM-2.5 across the Lower Peninsula.  That should persist through Monday with remnants of these Moderates confined to Southeast Michigan on Tuesday.

Wednesday and Thursday should be mostly Good under a northerly component wind pattern.  A high-pressure ridge passes over the region, Friday, which could return Moderate conditions to some areas of the State.  These conditions would likely persist until Sunday when a low-pressure cell passes through the State.  West to northwest winds will persist from Sunday afternoon through early next week along with Good Air Quality.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good going into next week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, January 25th, 2021
Next forecast update: Monday, February 1st, 2021

1/19/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Tuesday, January 19th, 2021 through Monday, January 25th, 2021

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to range from middle Good to low Moderate through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

A shortwave passing late Tuesday enhances snow, generally in the most prone northwest flow lake effect areas. Ridging builds in Wednesday moderating temperatures for a short period, but a front passing Thursday brings a return to cooler conditions. Cooler temperatures linger into Friday as do northwest flow lake effect snow showers. Quiet conditions are expected Saturday with high pressure overhead.

As for air quality, without a period of stagnation this week daily averages of fine particulate should be mostly Good. With that, some locations may experience a few hours each day with hourly concentrations in the Moderate range. Winds turn southwesterly for a short period of time Wednesday, but winds will be gusty, therefore, this should not cause much of an increase in fine particulate. Early Thursday, the direction returns to the west/northwest and generally Good air quality is expected both Thursday and Friday. Increases in fine particulate towards the Moderate range are possible Saturday as winds decrease under high pressure.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Extended forecast models show the next system approaching Sunday. Models are not clear on the timing or strength of this system, however, southerly winds, which will be light at times, could cause Moderate fine particulate early next week.

Forecast Updated by Meteorologist, Stephanie M. Hengesbach Tuesday, January 19th, 2021.
Next forecast update: Monday, January 25th, 2021

1/11/2021 Forecast Update

FORECAST SUMMARY:

Monday, January 11th, 2021 through Monday, January 18th, 2021

PM-2.5:  24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations will be a mix of Good and Moderate during through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

We are looking at a quiet week, for the most part.  The work week starts under cloudy skies and a threat of some light freezing drizzle.  Air Quality is predominantly Moderate through most of the state, on Monday.  I expect the threat of freezing drizzle and Moderate conditions will persist through Tuesday.

The majority of the rest of the work week should be quiet with near normal temperature and a mixture of Good and Moderates.  A cleanout should happen late Thursday and early Friday when a weak cold front sweeps through the region.  A stronger front follows during Saturday with cooler temperatures and Good Air Quality, which should continue through the weekend. 

By Monday, we return to light southwest winds which could push levels back into the Moderate range.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality should be mostly Good to Moderator going into next week.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, January 11th, 2021
Next forecast update: Monday, January 18th, 2021