FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday, July 23, 2026 – Friday , July 24, 2026
PM-2.5: Concentrations will range from Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) with the highest levels in the upper peninsula.
Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range will continue.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Air quality readings remain mostly Good Thursday morning across the state. High pressure over the region is supporting light northwesterly to westerly winds. Expect plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures throughout the day. The surface high shifts east Friday into Saturday as a frontal boundary settles into the Arrowhead region of Minnesota. Southerly winds during this period will allow temperatures to rise for the end of the week.
Smoke production remains low from the ongoing fires across parts of Ontario and northern Minnesota. Precipitation is forecast for those areas Friday night, and if it happens, smoke production should stay low over the next few days. Farther west, several fires continue to burn across the central and northwestern provinces of Canada. As noted in yesterday’s forecast, smoke from these fires has pushed into North Dakota, and a continued eastward expansion of the plume is expected. At this time, smoke has mostly remained at upper levels, and only minor surface impacts are anticipated. For Thursday and Friday, we expect hazy skies and surface PM2.5 concentrations no higher than the Moderate range.
Cooler temperatures on Thursday will keep ozone in check, but an increase is expected on Friday as plentiful sunshine and a southerly wind develop. We anticipate ozone rising into the Moderate range Friday, with the potential for even higher concentrations on Saturday. Given the possibility of elevated ozone this weekend and continued uncertainty surrounding regional smoke, we will update this forecast Friday morning to reflect expected weekend conditions.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Warm, dry conditions late in the week may lead to increased fire activity, and the potential for ozone‑favorable conditions. We are monitoring the weather and smoke forecasts closely to determine if any resulting increase in pollution may warrant future Air Quality Alerts.
Next Forecast update: Friday, July 24, 2026