FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, July 24, 2026 – Saturday, July 25, 2026
PM-2.5: Concentrations will range from Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) with the highest levels in the upper peninsula.
Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) are expected with the possibility for Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG – Orange AQI).
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Air quality readings Friday morning range from Good to low‑Moderate across the state. Another dry day is expected with high pressure positioned to the east. Southerly winds combined with sunshine will allow temperatures to rise compared to Thursday. A frontal boundary is forecast to drop in from the northwest, bringing chances for precipitation over the weekend.
Smoke production remains low from the ongoing fires across parts of Ontario and northern Minnesota. Precipitation is forecast for those areas tonight and again on Sunday, which should help minimize smoke production over the next few days. Farther west, several fires continue to burn across the western U.S. and in the central and northwestern provinces of Canada. Associated smoke plumes may drift into the region at times through the weekend, but only minor surface impacts are anticipated. For the forecast period, we expect hazy skies and surface PM2.5 concentrations to reach no higher than the Moderate range. We will continue to monitor the wildfires and associated smoke through the weekend.
Cooler temperatures since mid‑week have kept ozone in the Good range, but increases in concentrations are expected this weekend. Plentiful sunshine and a warmer southerly flow on Friday will allow ozone levels to rise into the Moderate range, especially across central and southern locations. Warmer surface and upper‑level temperatures on Saturday will likely drive ozone higher than on Friday, and we agree with the current model guidance of concentrations in the Moderate range. A small chance for precipitation enters the forecast late Saturday into early Sunday morning. With mostly sunny skies and warm surface and upper‑level temperatures Sunday afternoon, ozone‑conducive conditions are again possible. By Sunday, we think there is a chance for ozone to reach USG levels, and because of this, we will update the forecast Saturday morning to get a better handle on expected ozone conditions for early next week.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Warm conditions will continue early next week, but precipitation chances will also come into play. We will continue to monitor the weather and smoke forecasts closely to determine whether any increase in pollution may warrant future Air Quality Alerts.
Next Forecast update: Saturday, July 25, 2026