FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, October 16, 2026 through Monday, October 19, 2026
PM2.5: 24-hour average fine particulates are expected to be a mix of mostly Good (AQI Green) to scattered Moderate (AQI Yellow).
Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green).
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
The cold front, which brought overnight showers, is exiting to our east, Friday morning. A secondary cold front that is expected to drop through the state from Friday morning into the early afternoon hours. This will bring additional showers to the area, followed by afternoon/evening winds which look to be sustained around 20-30 mpg with peak gusts around 40 mph.
Beginning Saturday, a broad high-pressure ridge will move overhead and provide quiet weather with seasonal temperatures. This period of quiet weather is likely to extend through the upcoming week, and likely beyond. I expect daytime highs in the 60’s with low humidity and chilly nighttime temperatures in the low 40’s. If winds decrease enough Friday night, there is a chance of scattered frost in the interior portions of the state.
As for Air Quality, I expect conditions to be as good as the weather, itself. Ozone continues to be essentially a non-issue with the shorter, dry days and cooler nights. The formal ozone season wraps up at the end of October.
Fine particulates should also not pose any major issues, although with the clear nights, the nocturnal inversion may temporarily trap particulates near the surface during the morning hours before the sun breaks it up. Several fires in the U.P. continue to burn although rain has knocked back smoke activity, thus smoke does not appear to be an issue. However, upcoming dry weather could spark additional activity in early part of next week.
As such, I expect ozone to remain the Good range with Fine Particulates also mostly Good with a scattered Moderates.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Air Quality is expected to remain mostly Good to begin the upcoming work week.
Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Friday, October 16, 2026
Next forecast update: Monday, October 19, 2026