FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, October 12, 2026 – Friday, October 16, 2026
Air Quality Alert for October 12, 2026 – Western portions of the Upper Peninsula
The Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy (EGLE) has issued an Air Quality Alert for October 12, 2026, for elevated levels of fine particulate due to wildfire smoke.
The Air Quality Alert is in effect for the following Michigan counties in the western UP:
Baraga, Marquette, Iron, Dickinson, and Menomine
PM-2.5: Localized concentrations in the western Upper Peninsula may reach the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG, Orange AQI) for a few hours on Monday, with the potential for Unhealthy (Red AQI). Across the rest of the state concentrations in will range from mostly Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI).
Ozone: 8-hour average concentrations in the Good (Green AQI) are expected.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Wildfires developed across the western portion of the Upper Peninsula over the weekend, with two larger fires in Marquette and Baraga counties. Southwesterly winds Sunday into early Monday pushed the smoke plumes over Lake Superior; however, winds Monday morning have shifted northerly to northeasterly. This flow will push the plumes south to southwest on Monday. While we do not anticipate widespread smoke impacts, localized impacts are expected, especially across Baraga, Marquette, Iron, Dickinson, and Menominee counties. Thankfully, widespread precipitation is expected from later Monday to Tuesday, which should help decrease smoke production and aid fire containment. For more information on these fires, visit Michigan DNR’s website.
Warm conditions will continue across the region for the next few days. Disturbances moving along a frontal boundary positioned over the area through mid‑week will bring periodic chances for precipitation, beginning late Monday across the north and shifting south into Tuesday. Most of the state should remain dry on Wednesday as the boundary settles south of Michigan, though rain may linger across far southern areas. A stronger system is expected to develop along this boundary Thursday into Friday, with cooler air moving in for the end of the week.
As noted above, localized increases in fine particulate are expected Monday across portions of the western Upper Peninsula due to ongoing wildfires. Precipitation from late Monday into Tuesday is expected to diminish smoke production and reduce the potential for elevated surface smoke; however, conditions will continue to be monitored, and the forecast will be updated as needed. Elsewhere across the state, periodic precipitation should limit significant pollutant buildup, and fine particulate levels are not expected to reach higher than low–Moderate range.
Warm temperatures will persist for a few days statewide, but with a low sun angle and decreasing sunlight this time of year, ozone levels are expected to remain in the Good range.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Air quality is expected to be mostly Good in the extended period.
Next Forecast update: Friday, October 16, 2026