FORECAST SUMMARY: Sunday, June 1, 2025 - Monday, June 2, 2025
Air Quality Advisory for Monday, June 2, 2025
The Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy (EGLE) has issued an Air Quality Advisory for elevated levels of fine particulate (PM2.5) in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Pollutants within those areas are expected to be in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG, Orange AQI) range.
The Air Quality Advisory includes the following counties:
Alger, Baraga, Chippewa, Delta, Dickinson, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron, Keweenaw, Luce, Mackinac, Marquette, Menominee, Ontonagon, Schoolcraft
Ozone: 8-hour ozone concentrations are expected to range between Good (Green AQI) and Moderate (Yellow AQI).
PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will range between Good and Moderate, but Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG, Orange AQI) across the Upper Peninsula on Monday.
FORECAST DISCUSSION:
Smoke from Canadian wildfires continues sinking south into the Dakotas and Minnesota on Sunday. Overnight Sunday, a warm front tracks east into the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. Southwesterly winds will develop, bringing increased fine particulate to the northern portions of Michigan on Monday. As a result, we anticipate fine particulate levels rising into the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG) range across the Upper Peninsula. There is a possibility that hourly levels could reach the Unhealthy (red AQI) range for a short period of time.
Across the rest of the state, southwest winds develop as a ridge moves in from the west. We expect smoke to persist mostly at upper levels on Monday. While concentrations of fine particulate may increase, readings higher than mid- to upper Moderate are not expected. For ozone, warmer temperatures moving into the area may cause increases in concentrations. There is a small chance for a monitor to reach the low-end USG range for ozone and/or fine particulate on Monday, but the threat is not enough to warrant an advisory across the Lower Peninsula. By Tuesday, we will be in the second day of warmer temperatures, and southwest winds will continue. There is a possibility that smoke may start filtering down towards the surface by then, so a threat exists for elevated fine particulate and/or ozone. The forecast and smoke maps will be evaluated Monday morning to determine if additional air quality advisories are needed.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Extended models show a boundary moving into the region later Tuesday, lingering through the rest of the week. This boundary will trigger storm development. Air quality levels during this period will continue to be evaluated.
Next Forecast update: Monday, June 2, 2025