FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday, June 3, 2025, through Wednesday, June 4, 2025
Air Quality ALERT for Tuesday and Wednesday, June 3-4, 2025
The Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy (EGLE) is upgrading to Air Quality Alert for elevated levels of fine particulate (PM2.5) in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan and several counties in the Northwest Lower Peninsula. Pollutants within those areas could reach the Unhealthy (Red AQI) range or higher.
The Air Quality Alert includes the following counties:
Upper Peninsula:
Alger, Baraga, Chippewa, Delta, Dickinson, Gogebic, Houghton, Iron, Keweenaw, Luce, Mackinac, Marquette, Menominee, Ontonagon, Schoolcraft
Lower Peninsula
Antrim, Benzie, Charlevoix, Cheboygan, Emmet, Grand Traverse, Kalkaska, Leelanau, Manistee
OZONE: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations are expected to range between Good (AQI Green) and Moderate (AQI Yellow).
PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be Moderate (AQI Yellow) in most of the Lower Peninsula, and likely USG (AQI Orange) to Unhealthy (AQI Red) in the Upper Peninsula and several counties in Northwest Lower Peninsula.
FORECAST DISCUSSION
Similar to yesterday’s forecast, smoke from Canadian wildfires continues to threaten the upper Midwest. For the most part, the worst of the smoke has remained elevated over Michigan skies. However, monitors in the western U.P. are showing a large increase surface concentrations, during Tuesday morning, as smoke mixes down, sending PM-2.5 concentrations into the Unhealthy and higher range. As such we are upgrading Tuesday’s forecast to Alert status and will maintain that level through Wednesday. The models are also showing surface smoke invading the northwest counties of the Lower Peninsula during Wednesday, so we will increase the Alert area to cover those counties for Wednesday. We will reassess the situation for Thursday with the Wednesday forecast.
Warmer weather is still on tap for Tuesday temperatures into the 80’s for the rest of the Lower Peninsula. Skies should be remain mostly clear, during Tuesday, but show shades of gray to brown rather than blue due to the elevated smoke. Although we are experiencing ozone levels in the High Moderate range, during Monday, along the western lake shore, we are not expecting ozone to reach USG due to the elevated smoke dimming much of the solar energy along with clouds moving in during Wednesday.
The cold front should pass during Wednesday afternoon with decent rainfall potential. It remains to be seen how the smoke will behave during the rain and following the front. As such, we will update this forecast, Wednesday morning, and as necessary during this smoke episode.
EXTENDED FORECAST:
Air Quality is expected to vary during the week dependent smoke conditions.
Next forecast update: Wednesday, June 4, 2025