07/13/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, July 13, 2026 through Tuesday, July 14, 2026

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow) for the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Moderate (AQI Yellow) for the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

The second significant heat dome of the summer will settle over the region and drive our weather for the next dew days.  The week will start out with Monday’s temperatures in the low to mid 90’s.  Tuesday and Wednesday will likely be the hottest days of the week with temperatures in the upper 90’s.  Temperatures by the end of the week will still remain in the low 90’s. 

Heat warning per the National Weather Service: “There will be some relief at night with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s, but these multiple days of hot temperatures will be dangerous to those outside and unable to cool off. Make sure to find air conditioning, avoid strenuous activities, wear light clothing, check on family members and neighbors, drink plenty of water, and watch for signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke.”

While it would be natural to expect poor Air Quality during such heat waves, models are not indicating any severe worsening of Air Quality.  Ozone will likely be held at bay due to increasing humidity, northerly winds aloft, and an elevated level of smoke filtering the sun.  We could see scattered and isolated hours in the USG range, but no persistent or widespread periods of USG are expected.

A massive plume of Saharan dust is blanketing Florida and pushing into the Gulf of America.  Current predictions do not show any foreseeable impact to the Great Lakes region.

Wildfire smoke may need closer attention.  Fires just north of the Minnesota arrowhead could cause enough smoke to impact the western U.P. later in the week.  As such, we will keep a close eye and update this forecast Tuesday morning.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

With an increase in temperatures expected during the week, Air Quality is expected to stay in the Moderate range.   Forecasts will likely be updated frequently this week, to keep track of any unexpected changes.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, July 13, 2026

Next forecast update: Tuesday, July 14, 2026

07/12/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Sunday July 12th, 2026, through Monday July 13th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The heat starts to ramp up today, Sunday, for us Michiganders as another heat dome sets up a little further to the west than the one a few weeks ago. Regardless, though, 90-degree temperatures will return to most of the state with ample sunshine expected as well. With the High-pressure causing the heat dome being a little further to the west, our wind direction will predominantly be westerly, with some southerly component to it. Especially in west and southwest Michigan which will be monitored for any Ozone development. These winds will start to set up on Monday morning so, if anything, Monday may be a ramp up day for Ozone. As of now, Moderate AQI for Ozone is expected to occur with the potential for some hourly concentrations to reach the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range. Upper-level flow looks to be northwesterly, so this will help to keep Ozone at bay tomorrow, even though surface winds will be light and shifting to the west-southwest.

The relatively zonal flow we will have for the first half of the week will help to keep wildfire smoke away from the Great Lakes. The number of fires is holding steady with no additional fires popping up near us as of now, with most in the northern part of the Ontario and Quebec provinces. This time of year, smoke will need to be monitored daily, however, especially when winds are expected to shift.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The heat returns this upcoming week with the 90s making an appearance once again. Air quality will likely remain in the Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Monday July 13th, 2026

07/10/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Sunday July 12th, 2026, through Monday July 13th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The heat starts to ramp up today, Sunday, for us Michiganders as another heat dome sets up a little further to the west than the one a few weeks ago. Regardless, though, 90-degree temperatures will return to most of the state with ample sunshine expected as well. With the High-pressure causing the heat dome being a little further to the west, our wind direction will predominantly be westerly, with some southerly component to it. Especially in west and southwest Michigan which will be monitored for any Ozone development. These winds will start to set up on Monday morning so, if anything, Monday may be a ramp up day for Ozone. As of now, Moderate AQI for Ozone is expected to occur with the potential for some hourly concentrations to reach the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range. Upper-level flow looks to be northwesterly, so this will help to keep Ozone at bay tomorrow, even though surface winds will be light and shifting to the west-southwest.

The relatively zonal flow we will have for the first half of the week will help to keep wildfire smoke away from the Great Lakes. The number of fires is holding steady with no additional fires popping up near us as of now, with most in the northern part of the Ontario and Quebec provinces. This time of year, smoke will need to be monitored daily, however, especially when winds are expected to shift.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The heat returns this upcoming week with the 90s making an appearance once again. Air quality will likely remain in the Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Monday July 13th, 2026

07/07/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday July 7th, 2026, through Tuesday, July 10th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations in the Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow) range are expected Tuesday with a chance for USG (AQI Orange) in the west on Wednesday.

PM2.5:

PM2.5 concentrations are expected to average between Good and Moderate.

The Air Quality Alert is in effect for the following Michigan counties:

Muskegon, Ottawa, Kent, Allegan, Barry, Van Buren, Berrien, Cass

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

High pressure will remain in control across central and southern areas through Wednesday. A weak boundary will drift into northern sections today (Tuesday), bringing precipitation chances there, while southern areas experience sunshine, warm temperatures, and comfortable humidity. On Wednesday, the boundary will sag southward, introducing precipitation chances from Wednesday into Thursday. After the front passes, high pressure will build in from the north, ending precipitation from north to south. Some showers may linger in southern areas, but most locations will see dry conditions and seasonably comfortable temperatures.

A shift to northeasterly winds on Thursday will help improve air quality across much of the state as high pressure settles into the region. Pollution levels behind the departing boundary are expected to improve, with ozone and PM2.5 generally ranging from upper Good to middle Moderate through the end of the week. We are monitoring ongoing wildfire activity in Canada, which could influence Michigan’s air if smoke drifts southward. At this time, no significant smoke impacts are expected. However, if conditions change and smoke begins moving into the state, air quality may deteriorate, and an updated forecast will be issued before the scheduled Friday update.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air quality in the Moderate range may persist into the extended period.

Next Forecast update: Friday, July 10th, 2026

07/06/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday July 6th, 2026, through Tuesday, July 7th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations in the Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow) range are expected.

PM2.5:

PM2.5 concentrations are expected to average between Good and Low-Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Pollutant concentrations over the July 4th holiday weekend remained in check. As expected, areas with fireworks displays experienced brief spikes in fine particulate matter, but these increases were short‑lived, lasting only a few hours. Daily PM2.5 averages stayed within the low to mid Moderate range. Ozone levels followed a similar trend, largely held down by elevated humidity.

High pressure will dominate the region through the start of the first full week of July, bringing seasonable temperatures and noticeably lower humidity compared to last week. As the week progresses, a boundary will sink southward from Canada, introducing chances for precipitation across northern areas from late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Farther south, precipitation will be slow to arrive, and dry conditions with seasonable temperatures are expected to continue under a northeasterly wind flow. By Thursday, the boundary is forecast to continue its southward track, bringing precipitation chances to central and southern locations.

Northeasterly winds into Tuesday should limit ozone and PM2.5 development. PM2.5 concentrations are expected to average mostly in the Good range Monday and Tuesday. For ozone, 8‑hour averages may reach the Moderate range, and air quality models indicate a low‑end USG potential in the southeast on Tuesday; however, we anticipate levels will remain mostly Moderate. As high pressure shifts east, southerly winds will develop ahead of the mid‑week frontal boundary. Increasing sunshine and warmer temperatures may support ozone increases toward the USG range. Because of this potential, we will be updating the air quality forecast tomorrow (Tuesday) to determine whether an Air Quality Alert will be warranted.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air quality in the Moderate range may persist into the extended period.

Next Forecast update: Tuesday July 7th, 2026

07/02/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday July 2nd, 2026, through Monday July 6th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

PM2.5:

PM2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Ahead of the 4th of July holiday weekend, Michiganders wake up to yet another hot temperature and high humidity day with some relief on the horizon this weekend.

The heat dome that has been over us this past week will finally start to move off to the east, but hot temperatures and humidity will hang around for at least the first half of the weekend. With the changing of pressure systems, a frontal boundary that has been lingering near the Straits of Mackinac will make its way southward on Saturday. With it, scattered and pop-up rain showers are expected across the state. Especially with humidity hanging around, it will not take much to fire off some rain showers or even storms, but it will not be a complete washout of a weekend, however.

This past week was rather interesting for air quality in terms of forecasting, although, for the most part, the two pollutants we forecast behaved. The high humidity played a significant role in dampening Ozone production in southeast Michigan and west Michigan. A few monitors exceeded the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range, but 8-hour Ozone averages remained in the mid-to-high Moderate, at worst. An interesting phenomenon happened yesterday, Wednesday, which can emphasize the impact humidity and high moisture levels can have on Ozone. Throughout the afternoon dew points were well into the 70s across Michigan, which is known to hinder Ozone development. However, for a few hours yesterday afternoon in west Michigan, dew points dropped to the mid-to-upper 60s due to a very localized area of dry air that was brought down from upper levels in the atmosphere. This timeframe seemed to have coincided with a few hour increase of Ozone on the west side of the state, more so at our Holland and Muskegon monitors. When there was relatively drier air at those monitors, Ozone was above the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range, and when more moist air was present, those concentrations decreased. The Ozone increase was also at peak heating and solar energy after multiple days of the same airmass, so the lower dew points could be a coincidence, but this goes to show how multiple factors need to be considered when forecasting Ozone. For this weekend, Ozone looks to behave with the aforementioned rain and clouds moving in.

For PM2.5, as always with the 4th of July weekend, fireworks will locally increase PM2.5 concentrations due to the smoke associated with the colorful displays. For a few hours, especially in metro Detroit and Grand Rapids, Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range PM2.5 concentrations should be expected in the evening time and into the overnight hours throughout the weekend. As of now, there appears to be enough of a breeze to help clear out and disperse the firework smoke so increases should only last a few hours.

Aside from firework smoke, wildfire smoke looks to be swirling around our neighbors to the north. Looking at the Canadian wildfire map, comparing now to a week or two ago, the number of fires has just about doubled. The current heat dome impacting us here has also been impacting Canada by providing dry conditions. Some of these fires that have just started are rather close to us in western Ontario and eastern Quebec. Smoke from these fires is visible on satellite imagery, but thanks to the southerly flow we have had for the past week, smoke has been remaining in Canada. However, we will have to wait and see what happens when we get a wind shift to a northwest-northeast direction which looks like might happen next week.

Both Ozone and PM2.5 will be monitored throughout this weekend, so if any conditions change and warrant an updated forecast, an update will be made.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

We get some relief from the heat, but not by much as the mid-80s look to remain into next week. With lowering humidity, Ozone will have to be watched along with wildfire smoke in Canada. Air quality will remain in the Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Monday July 6th, 2026

07/01/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Wednesday July 1st, 2026, through, Thursday July 2nd, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Michiganders are roughly halfway through this current heatwave as we wake up this Wednesday morning. Heat indices are expected to range from 100 degrees to even 110 degrees in some areas this afternoon and evening as surface temperatures remain in the mid to upper 90s and dew points well into the 70s. With these high dew points, we have observed the impact that very moist air can have on surface-level Ozone so far this week as Ozone has behaved for the most part. Both Monday and Tuesday this week have seen mostly Good Ozone concentrations where if conditions with lower dew points were in place, those same concentrations would be expected to be higher. High dew points and Ozone do not mix well, as mentioned in previous forecast updates, and it possibly could be attributed to the amount of increased moisture in the air scattering solar energy enough to hinder the Ozone photochemical reaction. Also, with the increased moisture, cloudy conditions are more likely to pop up to haze the sunlight. This is where forecast models and model guidance sometimes fail to produce accurate outputs with the previous days’ model guidance showing widespread Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups level Ozone across the state. As mentioned prior, Air Quality Alerts were in place, however, to err on the side of caution because although high dew points and low Ozone have been observed in the past, it is not always a guarantee.

Moving into later today, Wednesday, and tomorrow, Thursday, the heat wave continues with Good to Moderate Ozone expected across the state. PM2.5 is on the increase as was mentioned in previous updates, due to southerly flow and the increase in moisture. Thursday will see a slight decrease in concentrations due to the wind direction becoming slightly more westerly and additional rainfall in the north, which will help to clean the air. As we go into the 4th of July weekend, however, as with every year, firework displays will locally increase PM2.5 concentrations, especially if winds become lighter. The two previous years saw a rapid increase in PM2.5 concentrations in the metro Detroit area on the 4th of July due to fireworks, but those years also had rather stagnant conditions. As of now, this year looks to have enough wind to aid in dispersing PM2.5, along with scattered showers, but concentrations will be monitored because increases in concentrations are expected regardless.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Hot temperatures remain through the weekend, although there is some relief as we get into Sunday. Air quality will be in the Moderate range due to increases in PM2.5 from fireworks displays.

06/30/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday June 30th, 2026, through Wednesday July 1st, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Orange AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

Air Quality Alert for June 30, 2026, for the following west Michigan counties:

Muskegon, Ottawa, Kent, Allegan, Van Buren, Berrien

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The heat wave has officially commenced with Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories in place across the entire region. With the heat and sunlight brings a threat of Ozone development, especially along the lakeshore in west Michigan where there is currently an Air Quality Alert in place for today. Models and model guidance suggest Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups Ozone concentrations along the lakeshore and into Kent County later this afternoon due to the hot temperatures, ample sunlight, and southwest flow which is typically a classic Ozone set up for that area. However, accompanying the heat and sunlight are rather high dew points which have eclipsed 70s degrees with some approaching the mid-70s. As mentioned in previous forecast updates, whenever dew points reach or exceed 70 degrees, Ozone does not develop when it otherwise would when dew points are lower. It will be interesting to observe Ozone concentrations this afternoon during peak heating time along the lakeshore, especially with a lake breeze currently setting up which may bring Ozone over the lake, more ashore.

It is because of the uncertainty of the Ozone and dew points interaction that I am holding off on issuing another Air Quality Alert for west Michigan tomorrow, Wednesday. The current Alert is in place until midnight tonight so I will be watching concentrations all afternoon, in case updates are needed. Dew points are expected to remain in the low to mid 70s overnight and through tomorrow, along with clouds popping up from the moisture available in the atmosphere. However, depending on what happens with Ozone today, an Alert may be issued tomorrow morning.

Aside from Ozone, with southerly flow and high dew points in the atmosphere above Michigan, PM2.5 will be increasing into the Moderate range this week. Also, as news headlines have mentioned, Saharan Dust will be entering the Great Lakes today, Tuesday, and into Wednesday but it is expected to remain elevated in the atmosphere while providing colorful sunrises and sunsets and not impacting air quality.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The extreme heat continues through the rest of this week with Ozone and PM2.5 remaining in the Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Wednesday July 1st, 2026

06/29/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday June 29th, 2026, through Tuesday June 30th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Orange AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

Air Quality Alert for June 29 and June 30, 2026

 June 29, 2026, Alert counties:

 St. Clair, Livingston, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw, Wayne, Monroe

June 30, 2026, Alert counties:

Muskegon, Ottawa, Kent, Allegan, Van Buren, Berrien

 FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The transition from June to July is turning out to be a rather busy weather week with Extreme Heat Watches and Warnings across the state, and now, Air Quality Alerts. An Air Quality Alert has been issued today for portions of southeast Michigan due to Ozone having the potential of reaching and exceeding the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range. With yesterday, Sunday, being a ramp up day for Ozone, lighter winds today may allow for Ozone to develop in and around metro Detroit.

As we move into tomorrow, Tuesday, an Air Quality Alert has been issued for west and southwest Michigan due to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups concentrations of Ozone being expected. Model guidance is in agreement with a plume moving ashore from over the lake as winds shift to more southwesterly flow tomorrow. The hot and sunny conditions along with the wind direction will allow for the photochemical reaction that creates Ozone to take place and impact the areas listed above. As mentioned in prior forecast updates, the kicker this week will be how Ozone interacts with the rather high dew points. In recent years, we have observed Ozone does not typically produce as it otherwise would when dew points reach or exceed 70 degrees, which is expected this week. To err on the side of caution, however, Alerts are being issued today and tomorrow, but it will be interesting to observe what Ozone does this week as there is the potential for additional Alerts being issued later this week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Hot and humid days persist throughout this week with the potential of additional Air Quality Alerts on Wednesday and possibly Thursday. This forecast will be updated each day this week due to that possibility.

Next Forecast update: Tuesday June 30th, 2026

06/28/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Sunday June 28th, 2026, through Monday June 29th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) to hourly Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Orange AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Michigan is preparing for the first heat wave of the summer with Extreme Heat Watches being issued as I type out this forecast. Today, Sunday, will see temperatures start to ramp up into the low-to-mid 80s with relatively lower humidity compared to what is to come.

We start out with predominantly easterly flow, but this will shift throughout the day to more SSE flow as a frontal boundary makes its way towards the Great Lakes. The boundary, a warm front, will not pass over us until Monday, which then will shift our winds to more southwesterly flow. That is when conditions become interesting for Ozone this week. Starting with tomorrow, winds become light over southeast Michigan, especially metro Detroit, which may pose a threat for Ozone development. A few factors are at play, however, which may help hinder development: pop-up showers with the passing of the front, and periodic cloudiness. Southeast Michigan will be watched throughout today as this forecast will be updated tomorrow, so if conditions change and warrant an Air Quality Alert, one will be issued Monday morning.

West and southwest Michigan look to be unscathed tomorrow for the most part, although Moderate conditions should be expected. The easterly flow for most of the day will push the Ozone plume to the west side of Lake Michigan. However, as the day carries on and the winds are shifting, the northwest lower peninsula and the southern upper peninsula may see increases into the upper-Moderate to low-Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range. This is not expected to occur until later in the evening, so those concentrations are expected to be short-lived as the sun will be setting and the solar intensity will be less so.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

This forecast will be updated tomorrow, Monday, to look at Tuesday which poses a threat of Ozone development in west and southwest Michigan.

Next Forecast update: Monday June 29th, 2026

06/26/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday June 26th, 2026, through Sunday June 28th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Hard to believe that June is over in just a few days and it sure is going out like a lion as temperatures look to soar next week.

Before we get there though, today, Friday, will be relatively similar to previous days this week with temperatures hanging around the low-to-mid 70s with some areas dealing with fog during the morning hours. As we go into Saturday, a High-pressure system moves into the Great Lakes which will shift our winds to east-southeasterly, aiding in a slight warm up into the upper-70s across the state. This warmup and upper-level pattern will continue into Sunday as an upper-level ridge builds in the latter half of the weekend which will be the start of the hot and humid summer temperatures Michigan will be feeling next week.

This forecast will be updated on Sunday to get a better look at early next week due to the possibility of Ozone flaring up with the hot and sunny days ahead. For this weekend, however, Ozone is expected to remain in the Good range on Saturday with increases into the Moderate range come Sunday. For PM2.5, a rather similar forecast is in store with increases into the low-Moderate are expected on Sunday, but mostly Good on Saturday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Both surface and upper-level temperatures are expected to increase early next week along with winds shifting to southwesterly flow. Adding clear, sunny conditions to the equation will pose a conducive environment for Ozone to develop in west Michigan and potentially southeast Michigan. The only factor that may help keep Ozone at bay will be the dewpoints, which will be in the mid-70s all next week so muggy conditions will be present. It has been observed in recent years that Ozone does not develop as it otherwise would when dewpoints reach or exceed 70 degrees. It is because of these factors that this forecast will be updated on Sunday, and possibly each day after that.

06/22/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, June 22, 2026 through Friday, June 26, 2026

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) with a scattering of Moderate (AQI Yellow) for the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) with a scattering of Moderate (AQI Yellow) for the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The cool weather experienced during the past week was a gift to Air Quality with concentrations of both ozone and fine particulates parked firmly in the Good category.  That trend looks to continue with a gradual warming trend throughout the week. 

The rain endured Sunday night is slowly exiting the state, Monday morning, and low-level northerly flow is ushering in slightly cooler and less humid air.  The high-pressure system building in behind the departing rain system will gain greater presence late Monday tonight and Tuesday as a mid/upper-level ridge builds over the Midwest.

The next weather feature of interest is associated with an approaching short wave which reaches the Great Lakes region Wednesday and Wednesday night.  Model consensus has the surface low tracking through the northern Great Lakes setting up a warm front/cold front progression across Michigan which will give us our next chance of showers and thunderstorms.  This system will not change our current air mass so temperatures will hold in the mid to upper 70s through Thursday.  Air Quality should stay mostly Good with scattered Moderates.

Models indicate potentially warmer temperatures this weekend/early next week.  Current projections have high pressure returning this weekend driving temperatures back into the 80’s with mostly dry conditions.  Sunday has the potential for temperatures in the upper 80’s.  While Air Quality does not appear to be an issue during this work week, the Friday forecast will have a better idea of any potential Air Quality issues for the weekend.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

With an increase in temperatures expected for the weekend, Air Quality is expected to begin a creep into the Moderate range.   It is too early to indicate any possibility of poor Air Quality for the weekend, at this time.

06/18/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday June 18th, 2026, through Monday June 22nd, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) range.

PM2.5:

PM2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Michiganders who were impacted by wind and rain midweek wake up to somewhat calm conditions and slowly start to dry out this Thursday morning. Residual rain showers and wind gusts are hanging around the state, however, this morning but are expected to move off to the east later in the day. Light winds and clearing skies are in place for Friday with surface temperatures slightly rebounding with the aid of sunshine. Saturday continues the slight warming trend although a small disturbance is expected to move in early in the morning which may provide rain to those in the lower peninsula. With this, winds are expected to shift more so to the WNW during the day on Saturday, so the upper peninsula will feel the cooler temperatures off Lake Superior. These winds continue into Sunday along with another disturbance which will bring rain to the lower peninsula again, in some capacity, as models are not in agreement with the exact location at this time.

With the passing of the Low-pressure system and frontal boundary that brought rain to the Great Lakes on Wednesday and Thursday, winds will predominantly be northerly this weekend with some westerly and easterly component to them. This typically provides cleaner air for both Ozone and PM2.5, when there are no wildfire impacts. Also, along with potential rain showers, temperatures are looking to remain in the 70s, at most, which is not quite warm enough for the Ozone photochemical reaction to occur, so Ozone will remain in the Good range for the weekend ahead. Looking at the Canadian wildfire map, there currently are wildfires in Canada, but nothing compares to this time last year, 2025, where we already were impacted by smoke at this point in the summer. Although winds will be northerly this weekend, wildfire smoke does not look to be an issue for PM2.5 concentrations.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

We warm up slightly to start next week, but winds still have a northerly component to them, so cooler than normal temperatures will prevail. Air quality will remain in the Good range.

Next Forecast update: Monday June 22nd, 2026

06/15/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday June 15th, 2026, through Thursday June 18th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to potentially low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to low-Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Mid-June is here, which is hard to believe, but summer is in full swing after very warm temperatures last week and just below-to-near normal temperatures for the week ahead. We start off the week today, Monday, with clear skies and surface temperatures expected to hang around the 70s. Monday will be the last predominantly dry day this week until Friday with multiple rounds of rain expected to impact the Great Lakes this week. A Low-pressure system and associated rain showers move across the state on Tuesday which will see rain during the Tuesday evening timeframe. This system will also shift our winds to the north-northwest which will cool us down for the majority of the day. Wednesday will also see another system moving across the state which, potentially, may see more rain compared to Tuesday. Timing for rain on Wednesday is somewhat similar to Tuesday with showers, and potential thunderstorms, nearing the late afternoon and evening. These systems move out of the area on Thursday and Friday with Thursday seeing leftover, residual showers and Friday being mostly clear. Although not a complete washout of a week, numerous rain chances will help keep the gardens watered.

For air quality, PM2.5 continues to remain in low concentrations although upper-level smoke has been present in some quantities. Our eyes are staying peeled, though, for near-surface smoke as we move more into the summer months. Ozone looks to be mostly Good this week due to the numerous rain chances to help keep the atmosphere clean, along with the shifting winds and high temperatures remaining in the mid-70s at most. There may be some increases in the Moderate range on an hourly basis, especially on Monday and Friday, which will have clear skies, but nothing more than low-mid Moderate concentrations should be expected this week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The clearing trend on Friday continues into the weekend with sunny skies on Saturday and for the most part on Sunday. Air quality will remain in the Good range.

Next Forecast update: Thursday June 18th, 2026

06/12/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, June 12, 2026 - Monday, June 15, 2026

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations in the Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow) range during the end of the week will improve to all Good Sunday and Monday.

PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will average mostly Good through the period; Saturday has the best chance for low-Moderate concentrations.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

High pressure is building in behind Thursday’s cold front, which brought storms, some strong in nature, across Michigan. Westerly winds on Friday will deliver cooler, drier air, keeping temperatures mainly in the 70s and making for a pleasant end to the workweek. The next system arrives late Friday in the northwest and progresses southeast through early Sunday. A reinforcing surge of cooler air follows this boundary, bringing Sunday highs down into the 60s to lower 70s.

Ozone levels have generally ranged between Good and Moderate this week. One monitor in the far southwest briefly reached low-end USG prior to Thursday’s storms. The cooler westerly flow behind the front should limit ozone formation, keeping concentrations in the Good category on Friday. Warmer, southwesterly winds on Saturday could support some Moderate ozone, and there is a small potential for a brief period of low-end USG along portions of the central and southwest lakeshore. At this time, the risk is not high enough to justify issuing an Air Quality Alert. Cooler surface and upper-level temperatures behind the weekend boundary will support Good ozone levels Sunday and Monday.

Fine particulate concentrations have remained low this week, with most sites reporting Good AQI and only a few locations reaching low‑Moderate levels. Westerly flow and a low regional background should keep readings mostly Good on Friday. A period of southerly winds on Saturday may allow levels to rise into the low‑Moderate range across southern Michigan. However, the weekend boundary moving through the state will help disperse particulates, and Good AQI is expected again Sunday and Monday.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Good air quality continues into the extended period.

 Next Forecast update: Monday, June 15, 2026

06/09/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday, June 9, 2026 - Friday, June 12, 2026

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations in the Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow) range are expected; with a few locations possibly reaching the low-end USG (AQI Orange) range.

PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will average between Good and low-Moderate.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

An active stretch of weather is expected over the next few days, highlighted by building heat and humidity Wednesday and Thursday. Today (Tuesday), a weak low-pressure system will move through the region, producing scattered showers and thunderstorms as it passes. On Wednesday, a warm front will lift north, bringing southwest winds and a surge of hot, humid air. This boundary will support storm development—initially across northern areas earlier in the day, followed by a more organized line of storms later in the afternoon and into the night. A similar setup is expected Thursday. Early-day storms will exit eastern areas, but additional, more organized convection is likely later in the day ahead of an approaching cold front. As the front moves through overnight, winds will shift northwesterly, ushering in cooler and less humid air for Friday.

Fine particulate levels on Tuesday are running in the upper Good to lower Moderate AQI range. Increasing moisture through Thursday may allow concentrations to rise somewhat, but daily averages are still expected to remain within the lower end of the Moderate category. Conditions should improve by Friday, with fine particulate levels returning to the Good range.

On Tuesday, widespread cloud cover and periods of precipitation should keep ozone levels mostly within the Good range. However, some areas may see a few hours of clearing during the afternoon and early evening. If enough sunshine breaks through, ozone could rise quickly. Any increases are expected to remain within the Moderate range, though photochemical models suggest the potential for isolated USG readings in the southwestern portion of Lake Michigan.

A hot and humid southwest flow will prevail Wednesday into Thursday, and periods of thunderstorms are expected across the region. Forecast guidance indicates a break in storms during the daytime hours both days, allowing for at least some clearing. The combination of warm surface and upper‑level temperatures and continued southwest flow would typically support ozone formation. However, dew points are expected to reach the 70s, and moisture levels this high generally limit ozone production. At this time, ozone levels are not expected to exceed the Moderate category. That said, photochemical models still indicate the potential for a few hours of USG readings along portions of the west Michigan lakeshore. If updated model guidance on Wednesday morning suggests a shift toward more widespread USG ozone on Wednesday or Thursday, we will update this forecast accordingly.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

A return to Good air quality is expected late in the week.

 Next Forecast update: Friday, June 12, 2026

06/08/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, June 8, 2026 - Tuesday, June 9, 2026

 Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations in the Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow) range are expected.

PM-2.5: 24-hour daily average Fine Particulate concentrations will average between Good and low-Moderate.

 FORECAST DISCUSSION:

 High pressure will dominate central and eastern sections of the region to start the week, while an approaching system spreads increasing cloud cover across the west and brings precipitation to central and western portions of the Upper Peninsula. With a low background pollution level and southeasterly flow in place, ozone concentrations are expected to remain in the Moderate range on Monday. A developing low pressure system will move through on Tuesday, producing showers and thunderstorms across most areas. Abundant moisture will support periods of heavy rainfall within the stronger storms. In the system’s wake, southwesterly winds will usher in a hot and humid airmass for Wednesday and Thursday. While there is some uncertainty regarding storms mid‑week, the environment appears favorable for thunderstorm development.

 Fine particulate levels early Monday are generally running in the Good range. Increasing moisture through the day should allow fine particulate concentrations to increase; however, daily averages are not expected to exceed the lower end of Moderate. With more sunshine expected across central and eastern areas on Monday, ozone may also climb into the Moderate category. On Tuesday, widespread clouds and precipitation should keep ozone mostly in the Good range. However, some model guidance suggests the southwest corner of the state may clear out on Tuesday. If that occurs, Moderate ozone would be possible in that area.

 A muggy southwest flow will be in place from Wednesday into Thursday, and periods of thunderstorms are expected across the region. Current forecast models suggest a break in storms during the day Wednesday, with at least some clearing possible. The combination of warm surface and upper‑level temperatures, along with a southwest flow, is generally supportive of ozone development. However, dew points are forecast to be in the 70s, and moisture levels that high typically suppress ozone formation. While ozone is not expected to exceed the Moderate category, conditions are marginal enough that the setup warrants another evaluation on Tuesday.

 EXTENDED FORECAST:

Moderate air quality could persist at times through the extended period.

 Next Forecast update: Tuesday, June 9, 2026

06/06/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Saturday, June 6, 2026 through Monday, June 8, 2026

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are expected to be a mix of Good(AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow) for the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be Good(AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow) through the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Friday afternoon and overnight rains were a welcome relief to the drier weather of the previous couple of weeks.  While those rains did provide some cleanout of the dirty air from Thursday, there was still some concern for Saturday as the cloud cover eventually clears.  The models are indicating potential issues in the very southwest tip of the state.   However, lingering cloud cover and showers appear to last long enough before winds shift to the cleaner directions of west and northwest.  As such, we will be keeping the lakeshore area Moderate but will keep an eye for any unexpected surges of ozone.

Sunday will be under a northerly wind regime and should not present any Air Quality issues.  Winds veer from northerly to south-easterly during Monday.  While some downwind stations of Detroit, such as Flint, may see a creep in ozone, there is no indication, at this time, of widespread USG.

True summer weather is in store for next week with 90-degree weather and potential Air Quality issues.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to be Good to Moderate to begin the upcoming work week with the potential for deteriorating Air Quality by Thursday.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Saturday, June 6, 2026

06/05/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, June 5, 2026 through Saturday, June 6, 2026

 Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are expected to be a mix of Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow) for the forecast period.

 PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are also expected to be Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow) through the forecast period.

  FORECAST DISCUSSION

Despite a clean background for most of the week, Thursday’s Air Quality was a rocky road with the majority of the state’s monitors unexpectedly crossing into the USG range.  Seeing the numbers climbing early in the day, ADQ did upgrade the forecast along the western lakeshore and Detroit area to USG although it was too late to issue an effective Action Day Alert.

Fortunately, that was a one-day event as clouds and showers move in along the lakeshore Friday morning and slowly expand eastward through the day.  Severe weather does not look to be an issue, but potential rainfall amounts could reach an inch or better in some areas. 

 That said, the predicted rain stops late Saturday morning, and clouds clear out in Southwest Michigan for the afternoon.  It is unsure how much of a clean out we will get from the rain and a gradual wind shift from west to northwest, so I tend to review the conditions Saturday morning and update the forecast, at that time.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to be Good to Moderate for the remainder of the weekend.

06/01/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, June 1, 2026 through Friday, June 5, 2026

 Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are expected to be Good (AQI Green) early in the week transitioning to Moderate (AQI Yellow) for the remainder of the forecast period.

 PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) to Low Moderate (AQI Yellow) throughout the forecast period.

  FORECAST DISCUSSION

 Despite being under some of the strongest solar radiation of the year as we enter meteorological summer, our Air Quality has been remarkably Good.  This can be attributed to several factors such as wind blowing in from clean regions, cooler temperatures, and low humidity. 

 Those dynamics should remain in play through mid-week, at least.  Beginning Thursday, the large semi-stationary high-pressure ridge which has been responsible for our great weather for the past two weeks will finally migrate east and our wind pattern will shift to a more southern component.  That means we can expect a modest rise in surface temperatures and humidity, although the air will still be relatively dry for this time of year.  With that shift, we can expect a slow creep upwards in ozone concentrations although with the clean background, I am not expecting any immediate widespread excursions into USG territory. 

 For Fine Particulates, a check of Canadian wildfires and observed smoke is showing relatively low activity for this time of year.  Crossing fingers and hoping that trend continues although drier conditions are expected.

 I will tempt fate by writing this forecast through Friday.  However, I will be closely checking end-of-week conditions and will upgrade this forecast, as necessary.

  EXTENDED FORECAST:

 Air Quality is expected to be Moderate entering the weekend as temperatures and humidity continue to increase.

 Next forecast update: Friday, June 5, 2026