07/24/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, July 24, 2026 – Saturday, July 25, 2026

PM-2.5: Concentrations will range from Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) with the highest levels in the upper peninsula.

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) are expected with the possibility for Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG – Orange AQI).

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Air quality readings Friday morning range from Good to low‑Moderate across the state. Another dry day is expected with high pressure positioned to the east. Southerly winds combined with sunshine will allow temperatures to rise compared to Thursday. A frontal boundary is forecast to drop in from the northwest, bringing chances for precipitation over the weekend.

Smoke production remains low from the ongoing fires across parts of Ontario and northern Minnesota. Precipitation is forecast for those areas tonight and again on Sunday, which should help minimize smoke production over the next few days. Farther west, several fires continue to burn across the western U.S. and in the central and northwestern provinces of Canada. Associated smoke plumes may drift into the region at times through the weekend, but only minor surface impacts are anticipated. For the forecast period, we expect hazy skies and surface PM2.5 concentrations to reach no higher than the Moderate range. We will continue to monitor the wildfires and associated smoke through the weekend.

Cooler temperatures since mid‑week have kept ozone in the Good range, but increases in concentrations are expected this weekend. Plentiful sunshine and a warmer southerly flow on Friday will allow ozone levels to rise into the Moderate range, especially across central and southern locations. Warmer surface and upper‑level temperatures on Saturday will likely drive ozone higher than on Friday, and we agree with the current model guidance of concentrations in the Moderate range. A small chance for precipitation enters the forecast late Saturday into early Sunday morning. With mostly sunny skies and warm surface and upper‑level temperatures Sunday afternoon, ozone‑conducive conditions are again possible. By Sunday, we think there is a chance for ozone to reach USG levels, and because of this, we will update the forecast Saturday morning to get a better handle on expected ozone conditions for early next week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Warm conditions will continue early next week, but precipitation chances will also come into play. We will continue to monitor the weather and smoke forecasts closely to determine whether any increase in pollution may warrant future Air Quality Alerts.

Next Forecast update: Saturday, July 25, 2026

07/23/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday, July 23, 2026 – Friday , July 24, 2026

PM-2.5: Concentrations will range from Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) with the highest levels in the upper peninsula.

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range will continue.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Air quality readings remain mostly Good Thursday morning across the state. High pressure over the region is supporting light northwesterly to westerly winds. Expect plenty of sunshine and comfortable temperatures throughout the day. The surface high shifts east Friday into Saturday as a frontal boundary settles into the Arrowhead region of Minnesota. Southerly winds during this period will allow temperatures to rise for the end of the week.

Smoke production remains low from the ongoing fires across parts of Ontario and northern Minnesota. Precipitation is forecast for those areas Friday night, and if it happens, smoke production should stay low over the next few days. Farther west, several fires continue to burn across the central and northwestern provinces of Canada. As noted in yesterday’s forecast, smoke from these fires has pushed into North Dakota, and a continued eastward expansion of the plume is expected. At this time, smoke has mostly remained at upper levels, and only minor surface impacts are anticipated. For Thursday and Friday, we expect hazy skies and surface PM2.5 concentrations no higher than the Moderate range.

Cooler temperatures on Thursday will keep ozone in check, but an increase is expected on Friday as plentiful sunshine and a southerly wind develop. We anticipate ozone rising into the Moderate range Friday, with the potential for even higher concentrations on Saturday. Given the possibility of elevated ozone this weekend and continued uncertainty surrounding regional smoke, we will update this forecast Friday morning to reflect expected weekend conditions.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Warm, dry conditions late in the week may lead to increased fire activity, and the potential for ozone‑favorable conditions. We are monitoring the weather and smoke forecasts closely to determine if any resulting increase in pollution may warrant future Air Quality Alerts.

Next Forecast update: Friday, July 24, 2026

07/22/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Wednesday, July 22, 2026 - Thursday, July 23, 2026

PM-2.5: Concentrations will range from Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) with the highest levels in the upper peninsula Thursday.

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range will continue.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Air quality readings Wednesday morning were Good across the state, a welcome change from conditions over the past week or so. High pressure and a northerly wind flow will bring cool, dry weather through the day. As the high shifts east Thursday into Friday, winds will turn westerly and then southwesterly. This change in wind direction will support a steady warming trend toward the end of the week.

Fires are ongoing across parts of Ontario, but recent rainfall in those areas has kept smoke production low. As a result, even with northerly winds, we have not seen increases in PM2.5 from wildfire smoke. However, several fires are also burning across the central and northwestern provinces of Canada. Smoke from these fires has already moved into North Dakota, and westerly winds on Thursday are expected to push these plumes eastward into the upper peninsula. At this time, we do not anticipate daily averages of PM2.5 to exceed Moderate, but a few hours of Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG) is possible in the western upper peninsula.

Sunshine and rising surface temperatures will create a more ozone conducive environment toward the end of the week; however, upper‑level temperatures remain cool, which usually helps limit ozone formation. Forecasting ozone can be challenging when wildfire smoke is present, but at this time we expect only gradual increases over the next few days. Concentrations higher than Moderate are not anticipated.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Warmer and drier conditions late in the week may allow the fires across Ontario to become more active. We are monitoring this closely to determine whether any resulting increase in pollution may warrant future Air Quality Alerts.

Next Forecast update: Thursday, July 23, 2026

07/20/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, July 20, 2026 - Wednesday, July 22, 2026

Air Quality Alert for Monday, July 20, 2026

The Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy (EGLE) has issued an Air Quality Alert for July 20, 2026, for elevated levels of fine particulate due to wildfire smoke.

This is a Statewide Air Quality Alert

PM-2.5: Concentrations on Monday will be mostly in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG – Orange AQI). Continued improvement is expected Tuesday and Wednesday with averages in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone concentrations in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range will continue.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Sunday was another day with wildfire smoke across the region. While levels were not as high last week, daily 24-averages ranged from Very Unhealthy (purple AQI) to Unhealthy (Red AQI) across the upper peninsula to mostly USG (orange AQI) across the lower peninsula.

Daily averages ranged from 135 ug/m3 in Marquette to 33 ug/m3 in Flint and Port Huron. Maximum hourly concentrations ranged from 200 ug/m3 at the Seney monitor to 44 ug/m3 at the Tecumseh monitor.

On Monday, PM2.5 concentrations are lingering in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (USG) range across much of the state. Levels are expected to remain in this range through most of the day, so the Air Quality Alert will continue through Monday. As a weather system moves through, improvements are expected, and by Tuesday, PM2.5 concentrations should fall into the Moderate range. Looking ahead, forecast guidance suggests that light smoke may drift into the region on the cool northwest flow behind Monday’s system. At this time, we do not expect more than an hour or two of USG level hourly readings in the western upper peninsula.

High pressure will settle over the region on Wednesday and Thursday, bringing dry conditions and gradually warming temperatures as the week progresses. Under this warmer, dry setup, there is potential for increased smoke formation, so we will issue another forecast update on Wednesday to refine expectations for smoke for the rest of the week.

Despite the dry pattern, cooler surface and upper‑level temperatures should help keep ozone levels from rising above the Moderate range through mid‑week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air quality in the Moderate range may persist in the extended period.

Next Forecast update: Wednesday, July 22, 2026

07/19/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Sunday, July 19, 2026 through Monday, July 20, 2026

Air Quality Alerts for Sunday and Monday, July 19-20, 2026

The Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy (EGLE) is issuing Air Quality Alerts for elevated levels of fine particulate (PM2.5) for Sunday and Monday, July 19-20, 2026. 

PM2.5: During Sunday, pollutants are expected to range between Unhealthy (AQI Red) in the Upper Peninsula to USG (AQI Orange) in the Lower Peninsula.  During Monday, conditions are expected to improve but could still reach USG (AQI Orange) levels statewide.

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are expected to be a mix of mostly Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow).

FORECAST DISCUSSION

After a brief period of relief from smoke in the Lower Peninsula early Saturday, smoke rolled back in, as expected, later in the day.  Fortunately, we did not reach the Harzardous range on the AQI scale and remained mostly Unhealthy in the Upper Peninsula.  In the Lower Peninsula, we ranged from USG in the north to Moderate in the south.

Daily averages ranged from 175 ug/m3 at Marquette to 21 ug/m3 at Tecumseh.  Maximum hourly impacts ranged from 288 ug/m3 at Marquette to 75 ug/m3 in the Detroit area.

Monday looks to continue a trend of slow improvement across the state.  The smoke models are consistent with decreasing smoke concentrations although some smoke is still expected to linger.  As such, we will maintain the lowest level of Alert (USG) throughout the state while expecting conditions to slowly improve.

Ozone could spike in certain areas if enough sun breaks through.  Fortunately, ozone levels stayed low on Saturday, and models indicate that trend should continue.

Although fires continue to rage in Canada, models are leaning for the next few days to be more tolerable as we could certainly use some relief.

In the meantime, it is recommended to avoid strenuous outdoor activities, especially those with heart disease and respiratory conditions like asthma. Watch for symptoms including wheezing, coughing, chest tightness, dizziness, or burning in nose, throat, and eyes. You can help reduce air pollution by limiting activities, such as outdoor burning.  Keep windows closed overnight to prevent smoke from getting indoors and, if possible, run central air conditioning with MERV-13 or higher rated filters.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to be to range between USG and Moderate in the early half of the week.  Forecasts will continue to be updated frequently, to keep track of any unexpected changes.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Sunday, July 19, 2026

Next forecast update: Monday, July 20, 2026

07/18/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Saturday, July 18, 2026 through Sunday, July 19, 2026

Air Quality Alerts for Saturday and Sunday, July 18-19, 2026

The Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy (EGLE) is issuing Air Quality Alerts for elevated levels of fine particulate (PM2.5) for Saturday and Sunday, July 18-19, 2026. 

PM2.5: During Saturday, pollutants are expected to be Unhealthy (AQI Red) in the Upper Peninsula and USG (AQI Orange) in the Northern Lower Peninsula.  The Southern Lower Peninsula has been downgraded to Moderate (AQI Yellow) and the Alert discontinued. 

During Sunday, pollutants are expected to range between Unhealthy (AQI Red) in the Upper Peninsula to USG (AQI Orange) in the Lower Peninsula.

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Moderate (AQI Yellow) but could have spikes in the USG (AQI Orange) range if enough sunlight breaks through during Saturday.  Sunday will be a mix of mostly Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow).

FORECAST DISCUSSION

Michiganders awoke to much improved conditions Saturday morning.  Friday, however, was another extremely poor Air Quality day with 24-hour averages ranging from 213 ug/m3 at Lansing to 118 ug/m3 at Seney.  Maximum hourly numbers ranged from 331 ug/m3 in Grand Rapids to 178 ug/m3 at Houghton Lake.

As discussed in yesterday’s forecast, enough sun did break through the smoke during Friday and ozone was an issue in certain locations.  Several monitors crossed into the USG range and Muskegon topped the chart with Unhealthy at 103 ppb.

Saturday will be an overall improvement over the past few days, especially in the Lower Peninsula.  Morning readings of the monitors show the entire Lower Peninsula in Moderate while the Upper Peninsula remains in the Unhealthy category.  Conditions will stay mostly the same throughout the day, although the passing of a front will cause some fresh smoke to invade the state.  Fortunately, latest model results have reduced the level of severity we can expect from that fresh smoke.

During Saturday, Alert levels have been reduced to Unhealthy in the Upper Peninsula and USG in the Northern Lower Peninsula.  The Southern half of the Lower Peninsula has been downgraded to Moderate (AQI Yellow) and the Alert discontinued.

During Sunday, the changing winds from the passing front will lead to another statewide Alert, albeit not as severe as originally anticipated.  The Upper Peninsula will remain Unhealthy and entire Lower Peninsula will be USG. 

Ozone could spike in certain areas on Saturday is enough sun breaks through.  The passing of the front should reduce that potential, during Sunday.

This trend looks to continue into Monday with most, if not all, the state under some level of Alert.

In the Alert areas, is recommended to avoid strenuous outdoor activities, especially those with heart disease and respiratory conditions like asthma. Watch for symptoms including wheezing, coughing, chest tightness, dizziness, or burning in nose, throat, and eyes. You can help reduce air pollution by limiting activities, such as outdoor burning.  Keep windows closed overnight to prevent smoke from getting indoors and, if possible, run central air conditioning with MERV-13 or higher rated filters.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to be to range between Unhealthy and USG.    Forecasts will continue to be updated frequently, to keep track of any unexpected changes.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Saturday, July 18, 2026

Next forecast update: Sunday, July 19, 2026

07/17/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Friday, July 17, 2026 through Saturday, July 18, 2026

Air Quality Alert for Friday and Saturday, July 17-18, 2026

The Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy (EGLE) is issuing a statewide Air Quality Alert for elevated levels of fine particulate (PM2.5) for Friday and Saturday, July 17-18, 2026. 

PM2.5: During Friday, pollutants are expected to be Hazardous (AQI Maroon) in the Upper Peninsula and Very Unhealthy (AQI Purple) in the Lower Peninsula.  During Saturday, pollutants are expected to vary between Very Unhealthy (AQI Purple) in the Upper Peninsula to USG (AQI Orange) in the southern Lower Peninsula.

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Moderate (AQI Yellow) but could have spikes in the USG (AQI Orange) range if enough sunlight breaks through.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

A statewide Air Quality Alert remains in place as Canadian wildfires, north of the Minnesota arrowhead continue to burn, out of control, and are spreading.  A review of the Thursday monitor readings showed record breaking Air Quality issues.  Daily 24-hour averages ranged from 385 ug/m3 at Marquette to 209 ug/m3 at Tecumseh.  Daily hourly maximums ranged from 517 ug/m3 at Marquette to 285 ug/m3 in the Detroit area.

Friday could follow closely with similar numbers, but a passing warm front will put the Lower Peninsula in southwest winds late Friday and early Saturday.  That change will allow some improvements, but we will still likely have recirculated smoke from Indiana and Illinois.  That thinning of smoke could lead to elevated spikes in ozone levels if enough sun gets through. 

This episode is not over, however.  When the associated cold front passes through later Saturday, we will be back into northwest winds and more smoke.  Those fires have not diminished, so we expect more bad Air Quality beginning late Saturday and into Sunday.

Saturday’s AQI forecast will range from Very Unhealthy in the Upper Peninsula to USG in the southern Lower Peninsula.  Friday’s forecast remains Hazardous in the Upper Peninsula and Very Unhealthy in the Lower Peninsula. 

The Saturday morning forecast will shed more light on what to expect for Sunday.

In the meantime, is recommended to avoid strenuous outdoor activities, especially those with heart disease and respiratory conditions like asthma. Watch for symptoms including wheezing, coughing, chest tightness, dizziness, or burning in nose, throat, and eyes. You can help reduce air pollution by limiting activities, such as outdoor burning.  Keep windows closed overnight to prevent smoke from getting indoors and, if possible, run central air conditioning with MERV-13 or higher rated filters.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to be to range between Very Unhealthy and USG.    Forecasts will continue to be updated frequently this week, to keep track of any unexpected changes.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Friday, July 17, 2026

Next forecast update: Saturday, July 18, 2026

07/16/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday, July 16, 2026 through Friday, July 17, 2026

Air Quality Alert for Thursday and Friday, July 16-17, 2026

The Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy (EGLE) is issuing a statewide Air Quality Alert for elevated levels of fine particulate (PM2.5) for Thursday and Friday, July 16-17, 2026. 

PM2.5: During Thursday and Friday, pollutants are expected to Very Unhealthy (AQI Purple) in the Lower Peninsula and Hazardous (AQI Maroon) in the Upper Peninsula.

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow) for the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

A statewide Air Quality Alert remains in place, along with heat advisories for Thursday as Canadian wildfires, north of the Minnesota arrowhead continue to burn, out of control, and are spreading.  A review of the Thursday morning monitor readings is showing AQI impacts ranging from Very Unhealthy to Hazardous throughout the state.  Unfortunately, those conditions will persist throughout Thursday and into Friday.

Observed smoke concentrations are unprecedented and far exceed the smoke events of 2023 and 2025.  This can be blamed on the nearness of the fires (north of the Minnesota arrowhead region) and the large number and size of fires in that area.  A front dropped through the region on Wednesday trapping and dragging that smoke southward to complete the picture.

The big question is how long will this last.  Indications are that Friday will likely be a repeat of Thursday.  As such, we will be keeping the forecast for Hazardous in the Upper Peninsula and Very Unhealthy in the Lower Peninsula.

Our best model for smoke only predicts out to 48 hours.  That model is currently showing improvements on Saturday, but it is likely that smoke will linger and recirculate for a while.  The National Weather Service mentions the possibility of rain on Saturday, which would help.  The Friday forecast will shed more light on that.

In the meantime, is recommended to avoid strenuous outdoor activities, especially those with heart disease and respiratory conditions like asthma. Watch for symptoms including wheezing, coughing, chest tightness, dizziness, or burning in nose, throat, and eyes. You can help reduce air pollution by limiting activities, such as outdoor burning.  Keep windows closed overnight to prevent smoke from getting indoors and, if possible, run central air conditioning with MERV-13 or higher rated filters.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to be to range between Very Unhealthy and Hazardous.    Forecasts will continue to be updated frequently this week, to keep track of any unexpected changes.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Thursday, July 16, 2026

Next forecast update: Friday, July 17, 2026

07/15/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Wednesday, July 15, 2026 through Thursday, July 16, 2026

Air Quality Alert for Wednesday and Thursday, July 15-16, 2026

The Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy (EGLE) is issuing a statewide Air Quality Alert for elevated levels of fine particulate (PM2.5) for Wednesday and Thursday, July 15-16, 2026. 

PM2.5:

During Wednesday, pollutants could reach the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (AQI Orange) in the Southern Lower Peninsula, Unhealthy in the Eastern U.P. and Upper Lower Peninsula (AQI Red), and Very Unhealthy (AQI Purple) in the Western Upper Peninsula.  There is a possibility some hourly readings could reach Hazardous (AQI Maroon).

For Thursday, expect Very Unhealthy (AQI Purple) in the Upper Peninsula with Unhealthy (AQI Red) for the rest of the state.  There is a possibility some hourly readings could reach Hazardous (AQI Maroon).

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow) for the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

A statewide Air Quality Alert remains in place, along with heat advisories for Wednesday.  Canadian wildfires, north of the Minnesota arrowhead continue to burn, out of control, and are spreading.  A review of the Wednesday morning monitors is showing AQI impacts in the Upper Peninsula and Upper Lower ranging from USG to Very Unhealthy.  It is possible some hourly reading could reach Hazardous.  Those conditions will persist and slowly migrate southwards towards the Michigan/Indiana border throughout the day.

A weak front will drop south through the state during Wednesday that could trigger thunderstorms in southeast and south-central Michigan.  Most likely, that front will only drag the smoke south into the southern part of the Lower Peninsula.  It will serve to lower temperatures but only by a few degrees.  A stronger front moves in for Sunday resulting in more comfortable highs in the 80s, but it is too early to predict what the smoke conditions will be, at that time.

With the persistent and aggressive nature of these fires, a statewide Air Quality Alert will remain in place through Thursday with a good possibility of extending into Friday.  Health advisors recommend limiting outdoor time, making sure to keep windows closed and, if possible, run central air conditioning with higher rated filters.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to be to range between USG and Very Unhealthy.  The possibility of hourly Hazardous spikes exists.   Forecasts will be updated frequently this week, to keep track of any unexpected changes.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Wednesday, July 15, 2026

Next forecast update: Thursday, July 16, 2026

07/14/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday, July 14, 2026 through Wednesday, July 15, 2026

Air Quality Alert for Wednesday, July 15, 2026

The Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy (EGLE) is issuing a statewide Air Quality Alert for elevated levels of fine particulate (PM2.5) for Wednesday, July 15, 2026.  Pollutants within those areas could reach the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (AQI Orange) in the Lower Peninsula and Unhealthy (AQI Red) in the Upper Peninsula.  

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow) for the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be USG (AQI Orange) in the Lower Peninsula and Unhealthy (AQI Red) in the Upper Peninsula.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

In terms of wildfire smoke, we have been fortunate so far in 2026.  Unfortunately, our luck has run out as the fires north of the Minnesota arrowhead have rapidly expanded, overnight, and satellite imagery shows large areas of smoke headed our way.

Tuesday should stay hazy, but relatively smoke free, as the current thick smoke plume is skirting north of Lake Superior.  Winds will shift and smoke will start pushing south.  The Upper Peninsula will be impacted first, starting around midnight and pushing south in the northern Lower Peninsula overnight.  Current models are showing that the dense smoke could reach the Michigan/Indiana border late in the day.

As such, we are calling a statewide Air Quality Alert for wildfire smoke for Wednesday.  As this will likely linger through Thursday and perhaps longer, we will update this forecast Wednesday morning with the latest predictions.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air Quality is expected to stay in the USG range or higher.   Forecasts will be updated frequently this week, to keep track of any unexpected changes.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Tuesday, July 14, 2026

Next forecast update: Wednesday, July 15, 2026

07/13/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday, July 13, 2026 through Tuesday, July 14, 2026

Ozone: 8-hour average Ozone Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow) for the forecast period.

PM-2.5: 24-hour average Fine Particulate concentrations are expected to be mostly Moderate (AQI Yellow) for the forecast period.

FORECAST DISCUSSION

The second significant heat dome of the summer will settle over the region and drive our weather for the next dew days.  The week will start out with Monday’s temperatures in the low to mid 90’s.  Tuesday and Wednesday will likely be the hottest days of the week with temperatures in the upper 90’s.  Temperatures by the end of the week will still remain in the low 90’s. 

Heat warning per the National Weather Service: “There will be some relief at night with lows in the upper 60s to low 70s, but these multiple days of hot temperatures will be dangerous to those outside and unable to cool off. Make sure to find air conditioning, avoid strenuous activities, wear light clothing, check on family members and neighbors, drink plenty of water, and watch for signs of heat exhaustion and heat stroke.”

While it would be natural to expect poor Air Quality during such heat waves, models are not indicating any severe worsening of Air Quality.  Ozone will likely be held at bay due to increasing humidity, northerly winds aloft, and an elevated level of smoke filtering the sun.  We could see scattered and isolated hours in the USG range, but no persistent or widespread periods of USG are expected.

A massive plume of Saharan dust is blanketing Florida and pushing into the Gulf of America.  Current predictions do not show any foreseeable impact to the Great Lakes region.

Wildfire smoke may need closer attention.  Fires just north of the Minnesota arrowhead could cause enough smoke to impact the western U.P. later in the week.  As such, we will keep a close eye and update this forecast Tuesday morning.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

With an increase in temperatures expected during the week, Air Quality is expected to stay in the Moderate range.   Forecasts will likely be updated frequently this week, to keep track of any unexpected changes.

Forecast updated by Jim Haywood: Monday, July 13, 2026

Next forecast update: Tuesday, July 14, 2026

07/12/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Sunday July 12th, 2026, through Monday July 13th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The heat starts to ramp up today, Sunday, for us Michiganders as another heat dome sets up a little further to the west than the one a few weeks ago. Regardless, though, 90-degree temperatures will return to most of the state with ample sunshine expected as well. With the High-pressure causing the heat dome being a little further to the west, our wind direction will predominantly be westerly, with some southerly component to it. Especially in west and southwest Michigan which will be monitored for any Ozone development. These winds will start to set up on Monday morning so, if anything, Monday may be a ramp up day for Ozone. As of now, Moderate AQI for Ozone is expected to occur with the potential for some hourly concentrations to reach the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range. Upper-level flow looks to be northwesterly, so this will help to keep Ozone at bay tomorrow, even though surface winds will be light and shifting to the west-southwest.

The relatively zonal flow we will have for the first half of the week will help to keep wildfire smoke away from the Great Lakes. The number of fires is holding steady with no additional fires popping up near us as of now, with most in the northern part of the Ontario and Quebec provinces. This time of year, smoke will need to be monitored daily, however, especially when winds are expected to shift.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The heat returns this upcoming week with the 90s making an appearance once again. Air quality will likely remain in the Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Monday July 13th, 2026

07/10/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Sunday July 12th, 2026, through Monday July 13th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The heat starts to ramp up today, Sunday, for us Michiganders as another heat dome sets up a little further to the west than the one a few weeks ago. Regardless, though, 90-degree temperatures will return to most of the state with ample sunshine expected as well. With the High-pressure causing the heat dome being a little further to the west, our wind direction will predominantly be westerly, with some southerly component to it. Especially in west and southwest Michigan which will be monitored for any Ozone development. These winds will start to set up on Monday morning so, if anything, Monday may be a ramp up day for Ozone. As of now, Moderate AQI for Ozone is expected to occur with the potential for some hourly concentrations to reach the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range. Upper-level flow looks to be northwesterly, so this will help to keep Ozone at bay tomorrow, even though surface winds will be light and shifting to the west-southwest.

The relatively zonal flow we will have for the first half of the week will help to keep wildfire smoke away from the Great Lakes. The number of fires is holding steady with no additional fires popping up near us as of now, with most in the northern part of the Ontario and Quebec provinces. This time of year, smoke will need to be monitored daily, however, especially when winds are expected to shift.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The heat returns this upcoming week with the 90s making an appearance once again. Air quality will likely remain in the Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Monday July 13th, 2026

07/07/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday July 7th, 2026, through Tuesday, July 10th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations in the Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow) range are expected Tuesday with a chance for USG (AQI Orange) in the west on Wednesday.

PM2.5:

PM2.5 concentrations are expected to average between Good and Moderate.

The Air Quality Alert is in effect for the following Michigan counties:

Muskegon, Ottawa, Kent, Allegan, Barry, Van Buren, Berrien, Cass

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

High pressure will remain in control across central and southern areas through Wednesday. A weak boundary will drift into northern sections today (Tuesday), bringing precipitation chances there, while southern areas experience sunshine, warm temperatures, and comfortable humidity. On Wednesday, the boundary will sag southward, introducing precipitation chances from Wednesday into Thursday. After the front passes, high pressure will build in from the north, ending precipitation from north to south. Some showers may linger in southern areas, but most locations will see dry conditions and seasonably comfortable temperatures.

A shift to northeasterly winds on Thursday will help improve air quality across much of the state as high pressure settles into the region. Pollution levels behind the departing boundary are expected to improve, with ozone and PM2.5 generally ranging from upper Good to middle Moderate through the end of the week. We are monitoring ongoing wildfire activity in Canada, which could influence Michigan’s air if smoke drifts southward. At this time, no significant smoke impacts are expected. However, if conditions change and smoke begins moving into the state, air quality may deteriorate, and an updated forecast will be issued before the scheduled Friday update.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air quality in the Moderate range may persist into the extended period.

Next Forecast update: Friday, July 10th, 2026

07/06/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday July 6th, 2026, through Tuesday, July 7th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations in the Good (AQI Green) to Moderate (AQI Yellow) range are expected.

PM2.5:

PM2.5 concentrations are expected to average between Good and Low-Moderate range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Pollutant concentrations over the July 4th holiday weekend remained in check. As expected, areas with fireworks displays experienced brief spikes in fine particulate matter, but these increases were short‑lived, lasting only a few hours. Daily PM2.5 averages stayed within the low to mid Moderate range. Ozone levels followed a similar trend, largely held down by elevated humidity.

High pressure will dominate the region through the start of the first full week of July, bringing seasonable temperatures and noticeably lower humidity compared to last week. As the week progresses, a boundary will sink southward from Canada, introducing chances for precipitation across northern areas from late Tuesday into early Wednesday. Farther south, precipitation will be slow to arrive, and dry conditions with seasonable temperatures are expected to continue under a northeasterly wind flow. By Thursday, the boundary is forecast to continue its southward track, bringing precipitation chances to central and southern locations.

Northeasterly winds into Tuesday should limit ozone and PM2.5 development. PM2.5 concentrations are expected to average mostly in the Good range Monday and Tuesday. For ozone, 8‑hour averages may reach the Moderate range, and air quality models indicate a low‑end USG potential in the southeast on Tuesday; however, we anticipate levels will remain mostly Moderate. As high pressure shifts east, southerly winds will develop ahead of the mid‑week frontal boundary. Increasing sunshine and warmer temperatures may support ozone increases toward the USG range. Because of this potential, we will be updating the air quality forecast tomorrow (Tuesday) to determine whether an Air Quality Alert will be warranted.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Air quality in the Moderate range may persist into the extended period.

Next Forecast update: Tuesday July 7th, 2026

07/02/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Thursday July 2nd, 2026, through Monday July 6th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

PM2.5:

PM2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Ahead of the 4th of July holiday weekend, Michiganders wake up to yet another hot temperature and high humidity day with some relief on the horizon this weekend.

The heat dome that has been over us this past week will finally start to move off to the east, but hot temperatures and humidity will hang around for at least the first half of the weekend. With the changing of pressure systems, a frontal boundary that has been lingering near the Straits of Mackinac will make its way southward on Saturday. With it, scattered and pop-up rain showers are expected across the state. Especially with humidity hanging around, it will not take much to fire off some rain showers or even storms, but it will not be a complete washout of a weekend, however.

This past week was rather interesting for air quality in terms of forecasting, although, for the most part, the two pollutants we forecast behaved. The high humidity played a significant role in dampening Ozone production in southeast Michigan and west Michigan. A few monitors exceeded the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range, but 8-hour Ozone averages remained in the mid-to-high Moderate, at worst. An interesting phenomenon happened yesterday, Wednesday, which can emphasize the impact humidity and high moisture levels can have on Ozone. Throughout the afternoon dew points were well into the 70s across Michigan, which is known to hinder Ozone development. However, for a few hours yesterday afternoon in west Michigan, dew points dropped to the mid-to-upper 60s due to a very localized area of dry air that was brought down from upper levels in the atmosphere. This timeframe seemed to have coincided with a few hour increase of Ozone on the west side of the state, more so at our Holland and Muskegon monitors. When there was relatively drier air at those monitors, Ozone was above the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range, and when more moist air was present, those concentrations decreased. The Ozone increase was also at peak heating and solar energy after multiple days of the same airmass, so the lower dew points could be a coincidence, but this goes to show how multiple factors need to be considered when forecasting Ozone. For this weekend, Ozone looks to behave with the aforementioned rain and clouds moving in.

For PM2.5, as always with the 4th of July weekend, fireworks will locally increase PM2.5 concentrations due to the smoke associated with the colorful displays. For a few hours, especially in metro Detroit and Grand Rapids, Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range PM2.5 concentrations should be expected in the evening time and into the overnight hours throughout the weekend. As of now, there appears to be enough of a breeze to help clear out and disperse the firework smoke so increases should only last a few hours.

Aside from firework smoke, wildfire smoke looks to be swirling around our neighbors to the north. Looking at the Canadian wildfire map, comparing now to a week or two ago, the number of fires has just about doubled. The current heat dome impacting us here has also been impacting Canada by providing dry conditions. Some of these fires that have just started are rather close to us in western Ontario and eastern Quebec. Smoke from these fires is visible on satellite imagery, but thanks to the southerly flow we have had for the past week, smoke has been remaining in Canada. However, we will have to wait and see what happens when we get a wind shift to a northwest-northeast direction which looks like might happen next week.

Both Ozone and PM2.5 will be monitored throughout this weekend, so if any conditions change and warrant an updated forecast, an update will be made.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

We get some relief from the heat, but not by much as the mid-80s look to remain into next week. With lowering humidity, Ozone will have to be watched along with wildfire smoke in Canada. Air quality will remain in the Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Monday July 6th, 2026

07/01/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Wednesday July 1st, 2026, through, Thursday July 2nd, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Michiganders are roughly halfway through this current heatwave as we wake up this Wednesday morning. Heat indices are expected to range from 100 degrees to even 110 degrees in some areas this afternoon and evening as surface temperatures remain in the mid to upper 90s and dew points well into the 70s. With these high dew points, we have observed the impact that very moist air can have on surface-level Ozone so far this week as Ozone has behaved for the most part. Both Monday and Tuesday this week have seen mostly Good Ozone concentrations where if conditions with lower dew points were in place, those same concentrations would be expected to be higher. High dew points and Ozone do not mix well, as mentioned in previous forecast updates, and it possibly could be attributed to the amount of increased moisture in the air scattering solar energy enough to hinder the Ozone photochemical reaction. Also, with the increased moisture, cloudy conditions are more likely to pop up to haze the sunlight. This is where forecast models and model guidance sometimes fail to produce accurate outputs with the previous days’ model guidance showing widespread Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups level Ozone across the state. As mentioned prior, Air Quality Alerts were in place, however, to err on the side of caution because although high dew points and low Ozone have been observed in the past, it is not always a guarantee.

Moving into later today, Wednesday, and tomorrow, Thursday, the heat wave continues with Good to Moderate Ozone expected across the state. PM2.5 is on the increase as was mentioned in previous updates, due to southerly flow and the increase in moisture. Thursday will see a slight decrease in concentrations due to the wind direction becoming slightly more westerly and additional rainfall in the north, which will help to clean the air. As we go into the 4th of July weekend, however, as with every year, firework displays will locally increase PM2.5 concentrations, especially if winds become lighter. The two previous years saw a rapid increase in PM2.5 concentrations in the metro Detroit area on the 4th of July due to fireworks, but those years also had rather stagnant conditions. As of now, this year looks to have enough wind to aid in dispersing PM2.5, along with scattered showers, but concentrations will be monitored because increases in concentrations are expected regardless.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Hot temperatures remain through the weekend, although there is some relief as we get into Sunday. Air quality will be in the Moderate range due to increases in PM2.5 from fireworks displays.

06/30/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Tuesday June 30th, 2026, through Wednesday July 1st, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Orange AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

Air Quality Alert for June 30, 2026, for the following west Michigan counties:

Muskegon, Ottawa, Kent, Allegan, Van Buren, Berrien

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The heat wave has officially commenced with Extreme Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories in place across the entire region. With the heat and sunlight brings a threat of Ozone development, especially along the lakeshore in west Michigan where there is currently an Air Quality Alert in place for today. Models and model guidance suggest Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups Ozone concentrations along the lakeshore and into Kent County later this afternoon due to the hot temperatures, ample sunlight, and southwest flow which is typically a classic Ozone set up for that area. However, accompanying the heat and sunlight are rather high dew points which have eclipsed 70s degrees with some approaching the mid-70s. As mentioned in previous forecast updates, whenever dew points reach or exceed 70 degrees, Ozone does not develop when it otherwise would when dew points are lower. It will be interesting to observe Ozone concentrations this afternoon during peak heating time along the lakeshore, especially with a lake breeze currently setting up which may bring Ozone over the lake, more ashore.

It is because of the uncertainty of the Ozone and dew points interaction that I am holding off on issuing another Air Quality Alert for west Michigan tomorrow, Wednesday. The current Alert is in place until midnight tonight so I will be watching concentrations all afternoon, in case updates are needed. Dew points are expected to remain in the low to mid 70s overnight and through tomorrow, along with clouds popping up from the moisture available in the atmosphere. However, depending on what happens with Ozone today, an Alert may be issued tomorrow morning.

Aside from Ozone, with southerly flow and high dew points in the atmosphere above Michigan, PM2.5 will be increasing into the Moderate range this week. Also, as news headlines have mentioned, Saharan Dust will be entering the Great Lakes today, Tuesday, and into Wednesday but it is expected to remain elevated in the atmosphere while providing colorful sunrises and sunsets and not impacting air quality.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

The extreme heat continues through the rest of this week with Ozone and PM2.5 remaining in the Moderate range.

Next Forecast update: Wednesday July 1st, 2026

06/29/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Monday June 29th, 2026, through Tuesday June 30th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Orange AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

Air Quality Alert for June 29 and June 30, 2026

 June 29, 2026, Alert counties:

 St. Clair, Livingston, Oakland, Macomb, Washtenaw, Wayne, Monroe

June 30, 2026, Alert counties:

Muskegon, Ottawa, Kent, Allegan, Van Buren, Berrien

 FORECAST DISCUSSION:

The transition from June to July is turning out to be a rather busy weather week with Extreme Heat Watches and Warnings across the state, and now, Air Quality Alerts. An Air Quality Alert has been issued today for portions of southeast Michigan due to Ozone having the potential of reaching and exceeding the Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range. With yesterday, Sunday, being a ramp up day for Ozone, lighter winds today may allow for Ozone to develop in and around metro Detroit.

As we move into tomorrow, Tuesday, an Air Quality Alert has been issued for west and southwest Michigan due to Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups concentrations of Ozone being expected. Model guidance is in agreement with a plume moving ashore from over the lake as winds shift to more southwesterly flow tomorrow. The hot and sunny conditions along with the wind direction will allow for the photochemical reaction that creates Ozone to take place and impact the areas listed above. As mentioned in prior forecast updates, the kicker this week will be how Ozone interacts with the rather high dew points. In recent years, we have observed Ozone does not typically produce as it otherwise would when dew points reach or exceed 70 degrees, which is expected this week. To err on the side of caution, however, Alerts are being issued today and tomorrow, but it will be interesting to observe what Ozone does this week as there is the potential for additional Alerts being issued later this week.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

Hot and humid days persist throughout this week with the potential of additional Air Quality Alerts on Wednesday and possibly Thursday. This forecast will be updated each day this week due to that possibility.

Next Forecast update: Tuesday June 30th, 2026

06/28/2026 Air Quality Forecast

FORECAST SUMMARY: Sunday June 28th, 2026, through Monday June 29th, 2026

Ozone:

Ozone concentrations are expected to be in the Moderate (Yellow AQI) to hourly Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups (Orange AQI) range.

PM-2.5:

PM-2.5 concentrations are expected to be in the Good (Green AQI) to Moderate (Yellow AQI) range.

FORECAST DISCUSSION:

Michigan is preparing for the first heat wave of the summer with Extreme Heat Watches being issued as I type out this forecast. Today, Sunday, will see temperatures start to ramp up into the low-to-mid 80s with relatively lower humidity compared to what is to come.

We start out with predominantly easterly flow, but this will shift throughout the day to more SSE flow as a frontal boundary makes its way towards the Great Lakes. The boundary, a warm front, will not pass over us until Monday, which then will shift our winds to more southwesterly flow. That is when conditions become interesting for Ozone this week. Starting with tomorrow, winds become light over southeast Michigan, especially metro Detroit, which may pose a threat for Ozone development. A few factors are at play, however, which may help hinder development: pop-up showers with the passing of the front, and periodic cloudiness. Southeast Michigan will be watched throughout today as this forecast will be updated tomorrow, so if conditions change and warrant an Air Quality Alert, one will be issued Monday morning.

West and southwest Michigan look to be unscathed tomorrow for the most part, although Moderate conditions should be expected. The easterly flow for most of the day will push the Ozone plume to the west side of Lake Michigan. However, as the day carries on and the winds are shifting, the northwest lower peninsula and the southern upper peninsula may see increases into the upper-Moderate to low-Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups range. This is not expected to occur until later in the evening, so those concentrations are expected to be short-lived as the sun will be setting and the solar intensity will be less so.

EXTENDED FORECAST:

This forecast will be updated tomorrow, Monday, to look at Tuesday which poses a threat of Ozone development in west and southwest Michigan.

Next Forecast update: Monday June 29th, 2026